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Re: Will Android tablets to beat iPad in sales by 2015 ?
The public distrusts Android tablets at the moment... and for good reason.
The XOOM was a nightmare at first. Honeycomb wasn't ready for prime time, other vendors confused the buying public with non-stop news about tablets that didn't even exist yet. Nobody wanted to lose their piece of the pie to Motorola. Motorola, on the other hand, was stupidly silent... assuming the XOOM would sell itself, I suppose.
Add in the marketing debacle of NVIDIA announcing their next generation quad cores and you have a perfect storm. These announcements by NVIDIA essentially told the world the current round of Android tablets, most of which weren't even released yet, were already obsolete!!! What moron at NVIDIA thought that would help current sales of NVIDIA chips?!
With quad-core tablets and Ice Cream Sandwich, the Android tablets are... well... friggin' awesome. NOTHING competes...NOTHING! But it's going to take awhile for the public to get over the **** in the bed Android tablet makers (and NVIDIA) left this past year. In that time, many potential Android tablet owners will purchase iPads. IMHO, there just isn't as much market for tablets as phones, so that will be a critical time to pick up market share and this will further harm Android tablets for years to come.
IMHO, the tablet market will eventually mirror the phone market, with Android tablets eclipsing iPad. But the whole timetable has been pushed back. Sure, the Android tablet market share will grow, but nothing like it would have.
"Will Android tablets beat iPad sales by 2015?" That's a long way out. I would hope Android tablets would recover and enjoy brisk sales by then. I'd say "yes." They may not "eclipse" iPad by then, but there should be more Android tablets sold than iPads by then.
Of course, the wild card in this whole thought process is Windows. If Microsoft pulls of a successful Windows tablet... something that gives the full power of a notebook in a tablet form... Android will be dust in the wind. Google has been lax in their efforts to add utility to their tools. Look at Google Docs. Why the heck doesn't that compete with Microsoft Office yet? The "creation" side of things just pales in comparison to Microsoft.
I've been in the Apple camp. I owned the first three iPhones. I have personal insight into the mindset of both iPhone and Android groups. If Microsoft is successful, I predict most Apple users will continue to reject reality and stay mindlessly loyal to Apple. But I see most Android users jumping off the Android platform for the promise of full blown Windows on a tablet. So if Microsoft does a good job with Windows on a tablet, I see Windows being the dominant mobile platform and Android will be a historical footnote.