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    jason9900's Avatar
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    Default Why I think Android will take over the world in 3-5 years

    Now before I start my discussion and analysis, I would like to issue a disclaimer. I am not some die-hard Android fanboy, in fact I am (deep breath everyone)....... a BlackBerry addict. You know those phones that were really popular back in 2007-2009 with those small screens and keyboard? Now we tried to come back with an interesting OS called BB10 which I am sure about 0.5% of the world is aware about. Don't get me wrong, you would have to pry my BlackBerry out of my dead hands because for some reason I just love it. However fanboyism aside, I am aware that I make up a very small group of individuals.

    I am also very interested in technology and in particular the mobile phone market. I like to invest into tech stocks so I need to make judgements on where the market is headed. My purely unbiased view is that in 3-5 years time Android will be the only major consumer os, with the likes of ios, BBOS and Windows phone making up a niche market of loyal followers. My reasoning behind this theory is quite simple. Reason number 1 is hardware is becoming irrelevant, reason number 2 is cloud computing.

    Reason 1 Hardware is becoming irrelevant

    If you look at the hardware king right now, Apple, there is no doubting they make a quality product. It is refined and feels great in the hand, and the fit and finish is arguably the best in the business. However if you look at Apples recent quarterly income statements, more than 50% of their revenue is coming from the iPhone alone. The main way they make money off of the iPhone is selling memory. The price differences between the 16gb-32gb-64gb is $100 for every "jump up" in the model you take. However as many of you are aware from buying microSD cards, the cost of memory is very cheap. Apple's COGS(cost of goods sold) between the 16gb to 64gb model only varies by roughly $30 USD, however it will cost the consumer $200 for the extra memory, leaving Apple with a healthy $170 profit. This has proven to be a wildly successful business model for Apple to follow. Make quality hardware and charge a large premium for it.

    Android, and Google Nexus hardware in particular is changing the game. If you compare the iPhone 5s to the recent Nexus 5, you would for sure notice differences in quality. However whether or not the differences warrant the price difference of $419 (Nexus 5 $399 for 32gb, iPhone 5s $819 32gb) is extremely debatable. This debate becomes even more crazy if you compare it to something such as the Moto G.
    And this is where the basis of my first argument lies. I think Apple will become a niche company (and other hardware makers like BlackBerry) because only a certain niche of people will warrant paying double or even triple for a phone, when there are others that can do something very similar to it. I also notice a trend in many of those around me, that used to have an iPhone but due to certain circumstances (lost it, broke the screen etc) replace it with an Android because they no longer see the value in paying such a large premium for Apple hardware.

    Reason 2 Cloud Computing
    Google's vision is that sometime in the near future, every man, woman and child will have access to broadband internet. That no matter where in the world you will go, you will always be connected. This is why we are seeing things such as the chromebook that always need to be connected to the internet to work. Nowadays what differentiates a phone is not really the hardware, but its what it can do software wise. Android phones have access to a plethora of Google services that make our lives better. Things like maps, youtube, and especially drive differentiate it. Yes I know they can be accessed on other phones, but they are not as tightly integrated as they are on an Android. I believe that once consumers buy into Google Services, they will have no choice but to use an Android phone. I believe what Google will do is to start limiting its services slowly on other platforms in order to coerce people onto Android. We already saw this with the delay in releasing Google Maps to ios6, and not releasing Google Maps at all onto BlackBerry10. No other platform delivers better connectivity from phone, tablet, desktop to laptop than Android does currently.

    With the two reasons stated above, I think that in 3-5 years Android will fully take over the consumer phone space. They are giving consumers a reason today to skip out on paying large amounts for hardware, and is making it easier to connect all of the electronics in our lives. People like me that use a BlackBerry will continue using it until it eventually disappears into a niche (I hope it doesn't) and Apple will follow a similar path.
    So what does everyone think of this theory?
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    xyzlene and Golfdriver97 like this.
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    Default Re: Why I think Android will take over the world in 3-5 years

    I am largely inclined to agree with your points. Android has caught up to Apple in marketshare, although it is kind of unfair to say because that is a multitude of manufacturers, versus one that is Apple.
    Taking in the point of internet that you made and consider the fact that Google is slowly launching Google Fiber, which makes very fast internet very affordable, which brings another asoect into your point.

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    Default Re: Why I think Android will take over the world in 3-5 years

    Quote Originally Posted by Golfdriver97 View Post
    I am largely inclined to agree with your points. Android has caught up to Apple in marketshare, although it is kind of unfair to say because that is a multitude of manufacturers, versus one that is Apple.
    Taking in the point of internet that you made and consider the fact that Google is slowly launching Google Fiber, which makes very fast internet very affordable, which brings another asoect into your point.
    It's easy to catch up with Apple if you have as many android phones on the market as Apple.

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    Default Re: Why I think Android will take over the world in 3-5 years

    I think the op is right. Maybe the best areas for investment will be the lower cost Android devices and components manufacturers.

    The growing availability of Android in developing markets will contribute to Android dominance.

    Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk 2
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    Default Re: Why I think Android will take over the world in 3-5 years

    Quote Originally Posted by mrsmumbles View Post
    I think the op is right. Maybe the best areas for investment will be the lower cost Android devices and components manufacturers.

    The growing availability of Android in developing markets will contribute to Android dominance.

    Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk 2
    It will be interesting to see how the Moto G sells.
    mrsmumbles likes this.
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    Default Re: Why I think Android will take over the world in 3-5 years

    What you mention reminds me of the critique of the 5c.. tech journalist where expecting an entry level phone from apple at a very affordable price. Apple had a great opportunity to penetrate second and third world countries with the 5c.

    The reason the 5c remained at a relatively high price, was due to fragmentation.. They could have made a 200.00 phone off contract. Though the retina display, processor, and many other factors would have been comprised. this would have put a severe fork in the road for future development, and marketing strategy. simply put ios7 and its ecosystem would not work in conjunction with the "ideal" 5c... so they went plastic, which shaved the price a bit. kept fragmentation to a minimum, but at the same time lost out to the developing markets.. india and china.

    moto g, zte etc will integrate perfectly with emerging markets, and android will become a very strong contender of the future predominate os.. the question remains will android become more unified.. that is the imperative factor for android to control market share. If this does not transpire, apple will still be in the lead. regardless if they are a niche company.



    in order for android to succeed they need to close aosp, and tighten the reigns... android has already started to implement the closed garden practice... This may be the reason why andy rubin left project android... I could see android becoming the predominant os if they make the system a bit more closed, and continue to penetrate emerging markets with phones at very competitive prices off contract - allowing everyone the opportunity to see what mountain view has to offer.

    At the end android does not have to worry about apple.. They need to focus on samsung... If memory serves - samsung had 47% market share last quarter. With samsung's dev conference which lasted about a week. its not apple.... it is samsung that poses a threat. Last year many companies were using samsung as a a dev phone... not nexus... a lesson to be learned indeed. it only makes sense for the community to work with the device that has the greatest market share... If a forum can figure this out, hopefully mountain view is one step ahead.


    think for a minute. how many people will be on motos site this monday? I know i will.. 150.00 makes a big difference. If it is on every tech site, and flipboard, guaranteed this monday will be a viable form of competitive marketing.
    Last edited by xyzlene; 12-01-2013 at 02:01 AM.

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