Nokia blows off Android,goes with Windows Phone.

[Guamguy]

It seems simple to me.

1) Elop is ex-Microsoft. Personally he is probably more inclined to go with WP7.

2) With Android, Nokia would have much more competition... HTC, Samsung, LG, Motorola etc. WP7 hasn't really broken out yet so Nokia has a chance to really be the brand people think of when they think WP7 devices.

3) Microsoft likely offered Nokia money to use some of their stuff... namely Ovi Maps... in WP7.

If Nokia had gone with Android, it would be game over for pretty much everyone other than Apple in the smartphone arena because Nokia is such a power in Asia, Africa and Europe. Them going with Microsoft leaves things open.

Elop only has three years with Microsoft. The guy who made that "Two Turkeys don't make an Eagle" tweet, Vic Gundotra, had 15 years with Microsoft.


Nokia's power in Asia, Africa and Europe is actually rapidly declining. I'm not talking of smartphones. I'm talking of featurephones. Nokia's featurephones no longer differentiate properly from Samsung, LG, Huawei and ZTE. ZTE recently pushed out Apple into 4th place in the world's most prolific manufacturers of handsets.

You can see Nokia's slowness to accept other possibilities. Like producing touch screen and slider featurephones. They keep insisting on the supremacy of the T9 candybar. LG and Samsung sold slider qwertys by the tens of millions, the KS360, the Corby. Sold tens and tens of millions of touchscreen featurephones, like the LG Cookie, the Samsung Star. These guys are also putting Facebook, Google, Twitter, Yahoo widgets into these Java based featurephones, which when used with data, gives them the ability to use social networking.

Nokia has also been very slow in accepting things that Chinese handset makers did, like dual SIM handsets.

Nokia is also rapidly losing relevance in places like the Middle East, where the preferred smartphone is, the Blackberry.

 

[Guamguy]

Here's why I think this is the smartest thing Nokia could have done: WP7 is a brilliant platform with immense potential. But it has very little hardware support right now. (The opposite is true of Nokia; it had great hardware and crummy software. ) By marrying Nokia's great hardware with the great software, each has a much better chance of survival. Couple that with all of the new integration between Nokia's services and WP7, and with what seems like a license for Nokia to do whatever it wants with WP7 on their devices, and you have a strategy that just might work.

That's incorrect. WP7 had great hardware support --- initially. I have not seen a brand new OS launch with 10 handsets.

That's the problem. Microsoft sold 2 million licenses over the quarter. That's not a single phone. That's divided over 9 different phones. Get the average sold per handset, and you get a paltry number. So the handset makers took a bath on this, because you need a minimum in order to make a real profit from that model.

Thus, selling the first 1 million WP7 handsets scattered in 9 to 10 different models are not the same as selling the first 1 million iPHones or the first 1 million G1s.

Second, lately, I got a hard time seeing how Nokia's hardware is "great". Their designs are nice, but cold. They keep on insisting on running ARM11 processors and their latest upgrade is to 680Mhz, when everyone else is running 1GHz Snapdragons and Cortex A8 chips. Their screens are stuck on 640x320 when Androids are running on 800x480, much less compared to the iPhone's Retina resolution.

Right now, Nokia lacks the screen technologies that Samsung, LG and Sony has. In fact, it has to buy LCDs, like OLEDs from Samsung. I also cannot say that their body finish is any better than HTC or Motorola now. Everyone has caught up in signal and voice quality.

Another factor. Microsoft's insistence in running the Qualcomm 8250. By insisting on this one single chip, they are trying to cut down OS fragmentation. The problem is that the 8250 is the first generation Snapdragon, while Androids were already running more advanced Snapdragons, OMAPs, Hummingbirds using a 45nm process. When the WP7 phones came out, they were essentially outdated. Their hardware standard is essentially, the same as the Nexus One, when the banner for Android are things like the Desire HD.

Immediately right off, the WP7 handsets came out of the game essentially outgunned by the standard bearer of the smartphone world, the iPhone 4.

 

[Joelist]

Nokia's "deeper access" into WP7 is not about altering the UI - Nokia themselves already said that is not what it is.

Much more likely it is them being able to dig down into the kernel to make WP7 run very closely with their rather unique smartphone equipment (for example, they have the best phone camera gear out there bar none). They have other tech differentiators that also need custom low level drivers and such to really shine.

Really this is a good deal for both parties. WP7 gets exposure it needs (and it is a VERY good smartphone OS that has gotten a bit buried by bungled marketing) and Nokia gets a fully modern and growing platform (basically everything Symbian was not).

 

[Guamguy]

Its still favoritism. Allowing access for one and not others.

Their best camera parts are bought from others. Carl Zeiss and Schneider and now incidentally, part of the Panasonic group.

Their "unique" smartphone equipment right now, is 640x360 screens with 680MHz ARM11 processors. There is nothing special about it. Its not something you expect in a modern flagship phone.

WP7 marketing isn't bungled. Its the best and most financed of any launch so far. Microsoft blew half a billion into it. But it only shows you that marketing only goes so far, because generally, the customer perception towards Microsoft and Windows tends to be negative. You can thank Apple for that.

If you go deep down, Symbian actually has strong OS fundamentals. It has a fantastic ability for multitasking. Symbian^3 has an excellent interface for it as well. WP7 is still Windows CE at the core.

 

[Joelist]

Believe what you want, but the marketing was bungled. Not enough ad coverage and the ads did not focus on differentiators. Plus the "launch" was too slow in getting to market.

Also, whether you want to believe it or not Nokia does bring things that no other smartphone maker does. And yes Symbian was an outdated sterile beast. And yes WP7 is a totally modern OS.

Once one takes off the ABM FUD glasses the partnership makes sense.

As to Android, it really does not impact Android much. This type of pairing of software and hardware is more Apple like, and is aimed more at iOS.

 

[Droid800]

Second, lately, I got a hard time seeing how Nokia's hardware is "great". Their designs are nice, but cold. They keep on insisting on running ARM11 processors and their latest upgrade is to 680Mhz, when everyone else is running 1GHz Snapdragons and Cortex A8 chips. Their screens are stuck on 640x320 when Androids are running on 800x480, much less compared to the iPhone's Retina resolution.

Their processors are weak-sauce, but then again, that's because Symbian didn't need anything more to get great speeds. They will, of course, use the chassis specs provided by Microsoft. And speaking of that; Microsoft itself has said the evolution for chipsets is going to start speeding up in the coming months.

Right now, Nokia lacks the screen technologies that Samsung, LG and Sony has. In fact, it has to buy LCDs, like OLEDs from Samsung. I also cannot say that their body finish is any better than HTC or Motorola now. Everyone has caught up in signal and voice quality.

Well yeah, they buy their screens from the best manufacturers. But, as shown with the E7, they will innovate when they need to on TOP of those purchased components. I mean, why reinvent the wheel when you don't need to? Samsung has great screens, so they might as well use them.

I beg to differ about the material quality as well. Handsets like the N8 and E7 are up there with the iPhone as the best of the best. That is to say; leaps and bounds ahead of HTC, Motorola, and the other manufacturers.

 

[Droid800]

Nokia's "deeper access" into WP7 is not about altering the UI - Nokia themselves already said that is not what it is.

Much more likely it is them being able to dig down into the kernel to make WP7 run very closely with their rather unique smartphone equipment (for example, they have the best phone camera gear out there bar none). They have other tech differentiators that also need custom low level drivers and such to really shine.

Really this is a good deal for both parties. WP7 gets exposure it needs (and it is a VERY good smartphone OS that has gotten a bit buried by bungled marketing) and Nokia gets a fully modern and growing platform (basically everything Symbian was not).

And microsoft also gets access to those modifications. That was one of the key stipulations of the deal; anything Nokia does to WP7 will filter back to the version that Microsoft ships to ALL OEMs.

 

[Droid800]

Its still favoritism. Allowing access for one and not others.

Their best camera parts are bought from others. Carl Zeiss and Schneider and now incidentally, part of the Panasonic group.

Their "unique" smartphone equipment right now, is 640x360 screens with 680MHz ARM11 processors. There is nothing special about it. Its not something you expect in a modern flagship phone.

WP7 marketing isn't bungled. Its the best and most financed of any launch so far. Microsoft blew half a billion into it. But it only shows you that marketing only goes so far, because generally, the customer perception towards Microsoft and Windows tends to be negative. You can thank Apple for that.

If you go deep down, Symbian actually has strong OS fundamentals. It has a fantastic ability for multitasking. Symbian^3 has an excellent interface for it as well. WP7 is still Windows CE at the core.

Symbian is garbage. Its completely outdated and outmoded by anything else out there, to its very core.

 

[Guamguy]

Believe what you want, but the marketing was bungled. Not enough ad coverage and the ads did not focus on differentiators. Plus the "launch" was too slow in getting to market.

Really? AT&T and Microsoft put more money and ads into it compared to Verizon's Droid launch.

Also, whether you want to believe it or not Nokia does bring things that no other smartphone maker does. And yes Symbian was an outdated sterile beast. And yes WP7 is a totally modern OS.

On the surface that is. On the core, they're not. Read more about operating system fundamentals.

Once one takes off the ABM FUD glasses the partnership makes sense.

No it doesn't. The whole Symbian principle is closer to Android --- trying to make an open operating system for all the sub licensees. Hence Meego was the same idea. The whole Symbian Foundation was a response to the rise of mobile Linux that started arising greatly in the 2006 (predating Android, which itself is one of the mobile Linux).

As to Android, it really does not impact Android much. This type of pairing of software and hardware is more Apple like, and is aimed more at iOS.

That I can agree with you.

The only problem for that is that the world doesn't need three closed systems---if you count Blackberry to the mix.

 

[Guamguy]

Nokia's "deeper access" into WP7 is not about altering the UI - Nokia themselves already said that is not what it is.

Much more likely it is them being able to dig down into the kernel to make WP7 run very closely with their rather unique smartphone equipment (for example, they have the best phone camera gear out there bar none). They have other tech differentiators that also need custom low level drivers and such to really shine.

Really this is a good deal for both parties. WP7 gets exposure it needs (and it is a VERY good smartphone OS that has gotten a bit buried by bungled marketing) and Nokia gets a fully modern and growing platform (basically everything Symbian was not).

It doesn't matter what the fine details are.

For the business minded, and for Microsoft's oriental WP7 partners, this is a red flag. An affront if you will.

 

[Guamguy]

Symbian is garbage. Its completely outdated and outmoded by anything else out there, to its very core.

The core is a microkernel. Each process is carefully tuned for a specific energy consumption. It is capable of full preemptive multitasking, like 50 or 60 if the memory allows. Symbian has done very well, supporting some of the most advanced Japanese phones for example.

 

[Guamguy]

And microsoft also gets access to those modifications. That was one of the key stipulations of the deal; anything Nokia does to WP7 will filter back to the version that Microsoft ships to ALL OEMs.

That's nonsense and if they do it, its another red flag. If those modifications are made to fit on Nokia's custom hardware, they won't work on others. In fact they risk breaking.

You keep adding layer after layer and those additions eventually become bloatware.

You know why desktop Windows suffers? Its because Windows has to package all that support for that Dell laptop, or HP desktop, even if you're using an Acer laptop.

Mods made for a certain system should not even go back to the core OS code. Otherwise you are going to have a long term maintenance nightmare. If they are made, they should stay on those systems and don't migrate back to the core code or risk contamination. Mods made for other systems should not go to your system in development as the contamination will make hell when it comes to debugging.

Essentially by keeping changes isolated down to the particular systems level without the core migration, you do create fragmentation. But this is one of the benefits of fragmentation. Your HTC Android with a Snapdragon isn't going to be bloated with code that supports a Samsung with Hummingbird, or a Droid with OMAP6. All the changes are confined at the local level without contaminating the main OS line.

 

[Droid800]

That's nonsense and if they do it, its another red flag. If those modifications are made to fit on Nokia's custom hardware, they won't work on others. In fact they risk breaking.

You keep adding layer after layer and those additions eventually become bloatware.

You know why desktop Windows suffers? Its because Windows has to package all that support for that Dell laptop, or HP desktop, even if you're using an Acer laptop.

Mods made for a certain system should not even go back to the core OS code. Otherwise you are going to have a long term maintenance nightmare. If they are made, they should stay on those systems and don't migrate back to the core code or risk contamination. Mods made for other systems should not go to your system in development as the contamination will make hell when it comes to debugging.

Essentially by keeping changes isolated down to the particular systems level without the core migration, you do create fragmentation. But this is one of the benefits of fragmentation. Your HTC Android with a Snapdragon isn't going to be bloated with code that supports a Samsung with Hummingbird, or a Droid with OMAP6. All the changes are confined at the local level without contaminating the main OS line.

No you misunderstand. Any mods Nokia makes will intentionally NOT be hardware or OEM specific. In fact, they have said that they WILL NOT go down that route because it will lead to fragmentation like Android. Any mods they make will be coordinated with microsoft and will be for the good of the platform. We're talking modifications deep within the OS, as well as up to the level that the user will see.

If Nokia does make any modifications to the UI, that of course would be Nokia specific. But any deep modifications would be platform-wide.

 

[ottscay]

Wrong. The difference is that Nokia has a tremendous development and software development infrastructure already set up, larger than any other company's.

The software development team that brought us Symbian, a platform that you yourself think is "crap"??? Elop already announced significant cuts are coming to software personnel (and the Meego team is first on the chopping block). Don't get me wrong, their software budget has been huge, and Nokia brings some valuable IP to the table (like their maps), but that's about all they have to show for it. They are now restructuring away from software development, so talking about their past software team and what will be there when a WP7 handset finally ships are not the same thing.

(the fact that you think so makes me think you've been reading too much AC or other Android blogs)

Cute. :-!

Actually, that's not correct. Nokia has been given carte blanche to do what it wants to WP7. They have already said they won't, however, because they don't want to fragment the platform like Android. Reading your post, it also seems that you completely misunderstand the relationship between Nokia and Microsoft here; Nokia isn't just some OEM, they are going to be doing a fair bit of development and under the hood development with microsoft on the platform. They'll be doing far more than any other WP7 OEM will be allowed to do, and that's the terms of the deal.

Nokia says it can customize the heck out of Windows Phone, won't do anything that would delay updates -- Engadget

Seriously? Did you even realize that you are quoting earlier statements from non-Microsoft personel to "contradict" my posting of an interview with the freaking head of mobile development for Microsoft?!! Did you even bother to read the interview? Why do you think that older statements by Elop (who is clearly trying to cover his ass) are more correct that recent clarifications by the head of Microsoft's mobile division?

Woodman (in response to whether they are letting Nokia change more than other OEMs):

But in terms of customization, how that plays out, I think it's really unclear. We actually allow for customizations today that are exclusives to each of our OEMs. Like we worked closely with LG on their DLNA application that's only available on an LG. So it's kind of unfair to say we don't do customizations with each of the OEMs to help them differentiate through software. And then the question is what we do with Nokia and if that's a build or not, I just don't think it's known.

He's obviously trying to walk back the degree of customization they are going to allow Nokia. When you tell the media repeatedly "we just don't know yet" without exception you mean "I can't really answer that without upsetting someone". They know, they're just trying not to rock the boat for Elop too much.

Sure, Nokia will be given the opportunity to "contribute to core parts of WP7 development" and those parts are the maps and aspects of direct billing from the Ovi store. Nokia is gutting their software R&D and are basically selling those bits of IP to Microsoft for a slice of revenues. My point is they probably could have done that without having to go platform exclusive.

They're not just some OEM.

They are now. Much of the best of the Meego team and other portions of the software development left already. What's left is largely the teams responsible for Symbian development, and they're definitely head count that needs to go as they switch to cost cutting mode. That's why Elop refers to Symbian as "franchise value they can harvest"; it's EOLed, it takes only a small team to keep it standing for another 18-36 more months (if they're lucky), so they can shed most of their software engineers.

And really you've already admitted this yourself. You (and they) said "heck, they 'can' change what they want, but they won't because it'd fragment the OS". Well heck, what good is "being able to" develop something if you won't? (of course they really can't, that's just their lame-ass cover now).

Mark my words; Nokia's contributions to the "core" of WP7 are already announced (maps, direct payment) and they will after this make smaller changes to the OS on their handsets than they could have making a skin for Android. Nokia could have sold that to Microsoft without going exclusive, but MS offered them a much sweeter deal if they also went exclusive (and if they announced it before WP7 was relegated to utter irrelevancy),

We know for a FACT that Google refused to let Nokia alter any core elements of the OS, including stripping out Google Maps and other elements to replace them with Nokia versions, and instead told them they could just develop skins like the other OEMs.

To be sure, Google told them if they altered the core parts of Android integration they'd have to develop it from the AOSP themselves. Which, by the way, you'd think such a mighty "non-OEM" company with such software development prowess could easily have managed. But apparently compiling the source code and then adding in their existing software was too challenging...or else someone offered them a lot of money to chase WP7.

Frankly, Google could have had a big win getting Nokia on board, but Schmidt's (and I would wager Rubin's) ego wouldn't cede the fact that Nokia *might* just have some better ways of doing things, and wouldn't let them do it. For the lack of Android, blame Google.

Two problems there: first of all, they were asking Google to give up some of the parts that actually make them money. So yeah, Google probably wasn't going to encourage them to do that, even though they couldn't stop Nokia from using the AOSP and doing so. Microsoft charges for their OS directly, AND they lacked those very features, so they were indeed happier to make a deal (again, they'd have almost certainly have made the deal anyways, just probably for a smaller chunk o' cash).

Second, while having Nokia come on board Android would have been a pretty major coup in terms of the news cycle, if it were handled this poorly I don't think it would be of any long-term significance, just like it won't be for WP7.

Nokia has a handset on the way. It should be here within the next 12 months if not sooner. What they specifically said is that they would not have MULTIPLE handsets out, because they need time to wind-down Symbian and Meego, as well as restructure.

Do you realize that 12 months ago everyone was talking about how iOS would sale past RIM and that Android probably couldn't catch up? Do you realize that Android just caught Symbian for sale numbers this last quarter and iOS just barely caught Blackberry? A year from now may as well be forever. It's just not going to matter much, and worse, Symbian share is going to plummet even faster because of the announcement.

I don't blame them for announcing what they did. In fact, there should be no doubt in anyone's mind that Nokia had no other choice. Continuing to limp through the market, without a clear way forward, would have been far more damaging to the company than announcing what they did.

That's just wrong, and to paraphrase you: it suggests you get too much of your information from blogs. To be sure, Nokia is in a world of hurt. Their best bet probably was to license their IP to Microsoft and become an OEM to both WP7 and Android, and not delay Meego like they did, while reaping the benefits of scale from selling Symbian for as long as they could. That would have let them play to their brand strength, and they wouldn't have shed Symbian market share as fast as they're going to now.

They needed a bold response to the criticism, and they needed a bold move away from what the company has become in the last few years. And that's what we got. This won't be a disaster for Nokia, because they finally have a clear direction.

You know, crashing airplanes also have a clear direction, but that doesn't mean they aren't headed for disaster. Licensing their IP and developing for more platforms would have been a bold response. Notice how well their stock has reacted to this "bold new direction"? I'm sure you think that all of the shareholders and tech pundits are just as big of an idiot as I am, but sometimes when "everyone is lost but you" you may want to stop and look around a second time.

Nokia has sold out future software development to any significant degree. They've licensed some of their IP in exchange for becoming a single OS OEM at this point, period. It provides WP7 with a big short-term marketing win, but at the cost of pissing off Symbian devotees, Qt developers, anyone involved in Meego, and the European market that viewed Nokia with some cultural pride. They will hemorrhage market share and a year from now they won't have their fabled distribution channels, nor will they be able to order in bulk large enough to pressure their supply chain into their current deals. In short, they have not only sold out their software side for a slice of revenue from a mobile OS with irrelevant marketshare, but they also sold out the hardware, customers, and developers that gave them their current hardware advantages. I'm not sure what Microsoft is paying them, but I doubt it'll be enough.

As I've written before, even if they chose this route they could have handled it better. They could have announced a deal with Microsoft to license their maps software and some ovistore IP, and to develop a strategic relationship including the production of a premium WP7 handset. That would have brought in cash, and they could have decoupled the reduction in Symbian and Meego headcount from this announcement. That would have been seen as the sort of "American business" changes that Elop was brought in for. They would still be losing marketshare, but not nearly as fast as it will be now, and their stock would not have lost as much value. When they produce a WP7 handset (and they'd better bust keister to get one out by the holidays if they want to matter at all) they could have announced they were adopting WP7 as their primary smartphone OS.

But no, we have this. HTC, Apple, RIM, and Samsung will all sell more handsets then Nokia by Q4 this year, if not sooner. Heck, maybe Motorola will if things get bad enough. Nokia will functionally be an OEM, and possibly not even the biggest one, for WP7. They'll get some revenue from the parts of WP7 they licensed to Microsoft, but they're going to have several rounds of layoffs, even after the software ones they're already planning on, just to stay afloat. And they won't really be adding much to WP7s sales. It's not like sales are slacking because there aren't enough handsets on the market, it's that the platform is too late, and it would have to overcome Microsofts consumer perception problems (which are substantial, even if it's not an accurate view of the present company).

It was a bad decision. Granted Nokia didn't have any good decisions they could make, but this wasn't the least bad one available to them, they just chose to take a short term paycheck instead.

 

[Guamguy]

No you misunderstand. Any mods Nokia makes will intentionally NOT be hardware or OEM specific. In fact, they have said that they WILL NOT go down that route because it will lead to fragmentation like Android. Any mods they make will be coordinated with microsoft and will be for the good of the platform. We're talking modifications deep within the OS, as well as up to the level that the user will see.

If Nokia does make any modifications to the UI, that of course would be Nokia specific. But any deep modifications would be platform-wide.

Who told you that? Did you guess on that? Or did you just follow speculation?

Mods are mods. If it has an upward direction, from OEM to the main code line, you risk contamination.

Then there are other factors.

First, in the history of tech world, OS partnerships never worked. Not just with Microsoft, but everyone. All the killer OS is designed with a single control mindset. Apple won't be where it is, if iOS was partnered. In fact, long time ago, Apple and IBM did partner for a next generation operating system to defeat Windows. Oh you didn't know about that? Exactly.

Second, sure, the devs can make their mods. Will that be before or after they finish writing their job resumes?

Nokia is going to lay off people. Lots of people will be redundant. Tech companies are now "fishing Finnish". From Cisco to Google. HP scored a bonanza when they got that Maemo head Arsi Jaarski, which helped alleviate the loss of two WebOS heads to Apple and Google (Mattias Duarte). I'm sure all these tech companies want to score again.

 

[TuxDotKing]

And microsoft also gets access to those modifications. That was one of the key stipulations of the deal; anything Nokia does to WP7 will filter back to the version that Microsoft ships to ALL OEMs.

So you mean to tell me this deal is some sort of perverse, proprietary GPL agreement. I'm actually impressed that Microsoft knows how to make such brilliant concessions to their old views and yet still stick to their guns. I think this is great for Microsoft.

That being said, I'm extremely disappointed. I was looking forward to buying my first MeeGo phone from a company as acclaimed as Nokia; now I must simply hope Intel can give it some sort of future.

EDIT: Of course, maybe Nokia won't let me down too much... http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/mar2011/tc2011032_306919.htm

 

[Droid800]

So you mean to tell me this deal is some sort of perverse, proprietary GPL agreement. I'm actually impressed that Microsoft knows how to make such brilliant concessions to their old views and yet still stick to their guns. I think this is great for Microsoft.

That being said, I'm extremely disappointed. I was looking forward to buying my first MeeGo phone from a company as acclaimed as Nokia; now I must simply hope Intel can give it some sort of future.

EDIT: Of course, maybe Nokia won't let me down too much... Nokia's Deep Investment in MeeGo - BusinessWeek

I'd take that article with a grain of salt. From what Nokia has said, Meego is going to be a bit player going forward, especially as huge resources are diverted to WP7.

 

[patfactorx]

I want a Nokia camera on my phone =0( It looks REALLY good