Lets Think about this - N4 Math

[toonhead85]

http://forums.androidcentral.com/google-nexus-4/227142-backorder-thread-nov-20th-onwards-5.html#post2352535 - Here is the comment that sparked this thought that I would like to share it with you.

Let us also suppose that there are 17k units that can be sold in each market (of which there are 3? - UK, AUS, US).

Now, Let us look back to Eric Schmidt Comments back in September 2012, which states they are activating 1.3 Million devices per day. If we divide that into 3 categories (Tablets, Smartphones and eReaders), I guesstimate that there are about 400k phone activation's per day.

So because there are 3 markets (see above), there should be roughly 133k units per market. But as the supposed UPS worker states, there were only 17k, which is quite a bit of a difference. I know this is very theoretical math, and I have no basis for accuracy, but it really makes me think how many devices were available to begin with and how so many people received 10+ units before others received any... especially if there was such a limited stock to begin with.

So what do you all think? Am I way off basis and should I not quit my night job, or am I right to question one of the biggest online analytic companies in the world as to how this happend and why they haven't rectified it yet?

 

[anon(847090)]

first, 1.3 million number was released a long time ago and it could be entirely different now.
second, out of the 1.3 million only 70 k are tablets. this was confirmed by google(right when Nexus 7 was released)
so phones are still 1.2 million every day. ereaders like amazon,nook etc dont count towards this since they dont have google service
obviously it would have changed by now since nexus 7 is popular and is activation 1 million a month and nexus 10 is out.

now do you math again.

I didnt quite get this btw. "But as the supposed UPS worker states, there were only 17k"

 

[toonhead85]

I didnt quite get this btw. "But as the supposed UPS worker states, there were only 17k"

the link to my post goes to a form topic that has another link to an XDA forum - where an employee of UPS states that they only received 17,000 Nexus 4 units.

As to your other comments, I don't have to do the math to figure out that my numbers were low-balled and the difference between that supposed 17k units and what should have been ready for each market is greater... which is worse imo.

 

[bunique4life05]

Wow! What waiting for the Nexus 4 does to people? I think its making people a little mad and delusional.

 

[toonhead85]

Wow! What waiting for the Nexus 4 does to people? I think its making people a little mad and delusional.

Not mad, not delusional... Just passing the time at work thinking about what went wrong, how I would fix it in my perfect world. Heck, I'm a lab tech science and theory is my job and I love it.

 

[TheCube]

Reviewing the math, I've run into multiple problems.

1) The number 1.3 million is probably worldwide (there are over 500 million android devices in total worldwide, so this makes more sense), and includes ALL Android devices.
2) If activation/day is directly related to purchases/day, we need to know the ratio of how many N4's were purchased on Tuesday relative to how many Android devices are sold in a day. Ziptied I think has mentioned his estimate of 500k worldwide (on Tuesday, that is), but this is also a guesstimate, so I won't use that.
3) Tablets have grown more popular on the Android sphere, while smartphone market is becoming saturated.
4) I think you assumed all 133k devices activated are N4's, which would not be true.

At this level, all we can pull out is a very rough guess based on powers of 10.

I'm assuming that (a) 1 million smartphones activated every day, (b) 500k activated in US (c) activation/day=purchased/day (d) 3 percent of devices sold on Tuesday were N4's.

Sold on Tuesday = 1.0x10^6 x 0.5 x 3x10^(-2) = 1.5 x 10^4 , so around 10,000 to 20,000 N4's sold. Now assumption D is questionable and we need a more accurate percentage. Ziptied's estimate, for example, leaves us with 500k nexus sold worldwide/1 million smartphone activated in a day = 50 %, which is pretty high. (Fermi problems FTW)

Anyone is welcome to review my math. In fact, butcher it. Heck, I'm a high school junior who's only had 3 weeks of experience with these Fermi-style problems.

 

[gone down south]

1.3 million Android devices, not 1.3 million Nexus's.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Android Central Forums

 

[toonhead85]

wow, I am very impressed you took my idea and ran with it. I am also intrigued that your range of 10k - 20k falls within the suggested 17k amounts that were supposedly at the UPS logistics center in KY, USA. Although the math works out, I feel that the numbers still don't add up to me. If they did, why are there people still without orders that shipped? Or better yet, if the bumper case sold at a rate of 1:1 with the phones, then they would be sold out... which they are... but I read forums and there are people who hate them and never even ordered them.

So if the case is falsely out of stock, that would mean that there could be a chance the phones aren't, but we also have to keep in mind the companies that ordered them for resell purposes and have 10+ units for sale.

This is fun! makes me take my mind off my job and gives me some hope in my world that I'll have a beautiful N4 soon!

 

[Fairclough]

I believe you shouldn't be an accountant or estimator when your older. How about we leave all the number crunching to the companies in charge.

 

[toonhead85]

I believe you shouldn't be an accountant or estimator when your older. How about we leave all the number crunching to the companies in charge.

You sir, are nothing but a school boy who thrives on the anonymity of the Internet. Let's do this instead, how about you leave your rude comments to yourself and let us continue... It's because of trolls like you I rarely use the forums.