LG Electronics exec: Google underestimate demand, didn't order enough of Nexus 4

[BookReader2]

Nexus 4 production issues and

Meanwhile, LG has denied the report, and made further comments in France where Cathy Rubin, LG France?s Mobile division director talked to Challenges.fr about Nexus 4 production, availability and sold out status.

According to the exec, Nexus 4 production has not been stopped, and it will be increased in the following months. Apparently it?s not LG at fault for the lengthy delivery times but Google?s.

The Search giant is said to have missed the mark when ordering Nexus 4 units. Google reportedly used sales data from the previous Nexus model to place Nexus 4 orders, but these numbers ?were lower than the actual demand.? Starting from mid-February, ?there will no longer be any tension in the market,? according to the exec.

LG is producing at the rate of 20,000 per day as of mid-January.

So the comment that starting in mid-February, there will be plenty of Nexus 4 might be coming true.

October: 70,000 produced
November: 90,000
Dec: 210,000
January: 400,000 possible since production is at 20,000 per day mid January

Similarly she wasn?t ready to reveal how many Nexus 4 have been sold to date, but it did say that the number hackers came up with a few weeks ago, or over 375,000 units, is ?a lot lower than the actual figure.?

However, she did say that the Optimus G, which is basically the Nexus 4?s older, beefier (in terms of hardware) brother, did reach the 1 million sales mark since being launched a few months ago. Should we read between the lines that the Nexus 4 sold anywhere between half a million and a million units since being released?

Look like the Nexus 4 is way way way more in demand than the Optimus G. In the next 2-3 months, it will easily overtake the Optimus G in sales #.

As of mid-January, around 600,000 Nexus 4 have been delivered per XDA-Developers sleuthing.



xda-developers - View Single Post - [INFO] LG Nexus 4 Production Date and Place Identification

Ok, did additional poking, the results as follows:

Phone produced in Oct had serial#
10000 19th of Oct, AUS8BK
20000 USA
45000
60000 AUS
70123 ATMOBK (t-mobile)

Something like 70k devices produced in October

Nov
73000 1-th AO2UBK (O2 UK model)
75000 5-th AO2UBK
80000 5-th AO2UBK
85000 21-th (?) AUKGBK - strange,
90000 9-th AUS8BK
92000 10-th AUS8BK
95000 - USA
109000 - GER
110000 - UK
132000 - USA
138000 - USA
150000 - USA
160000 - AUSGBK

DEC
165000
264000
265133 14-th ADEUBK GERMANY
266133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
267133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
268133 15-th ADEUBK GERMANY
269133 15-th ADEUBK GERMANY
270133 15-th ASWSBK SWS Switzerland (looks like around 500 units)
271133 16-th AISRBK Israel
272133 15-th ADEUBK Germany
273133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
274133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
275133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
277133 17-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
278133 17-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
279133 16-th AMYSBK
280123 17-th AMYSBK
289000 18-th UK
300123 19-th ADEGBK
305112 19-th ACA8BK
306000 28-Oct (?) AUSGBK, 211KPPB306000 "csn" is also very different from the "surroundings"
306001 8-Oct AUSGBK 211KPHG306001 esnoutgodate=null >>Never shipped?
306009 4-th Dec AUSGBK 212KPHG306009 esnoutgodate=null
306010 19-th AUS8BK 212KPYR306010 esnoutgodate=null
306020 19-th AUS8BK esnoutgodate=null
314001 19-th AFRGBK
314002 19-th ADEGBK
314050 19-th ADEGBK
314123 19-th ADEGBK
315112 19-th ADE8BK
319123 20-th ADEGBK
320123 20-th ADEGBK
321123 20-th AAUGBK
325112 20-th AUSGBK
330123 20-th AUSGBK
340123 21-th ACAGBK
350123 22-th AUS8BK
360123 26-th AUSGBK
365123 27-th AUS8BK
370123 27-th AUSGBK
374110 28-th AUSGBK

January 2013
375110 2-th AUS8BK
377110 3-th ASFRBK
381110 2-th ASFRBK
385110 3-th AGBRBK GBR "UNITED KINGDOM" - a new retailer? Play store was a AUKGBK
390110 3-th AUSGBK
395110 4-th AUSGBK
399110 3-th ATMOBK
400110 4-th AUSGBK
406110 4-th AUSGBK
419110 5-th AUSGBK
420110 6-th ADEGBK
422110 6-th ADEGBK
423110 5-th ATMOBK

424110 10-th AUSGBK
425110 8-th AUSGBK
430110 5-th ATMOBK
435110 5-th ATMOBK
445110 9-th ATMOBK
450110 9-th ATMOBK
451110 8-th ANEUBK "EUROPE OPEN" - something new
455110 8-th ANEUBK
456110 8-th ACAGBK CANADA_OPEN
461110 8-th ATMOBK
463110 8-th ADEGBK
465110 8-th ADEGBK
467110 9-th ADEGBK
469110 9-th ADEGBK
471110 9-th ATMOBK
474110 9-th ATMOBK
476110 9-th ATMOBK
479110 9-th AUS8BK
482110 9-th ATMOBK
485110 10-th AUKGBK "UNITED KINGDOM_OPEN"
487110 10-th AUKGBK
489110 10-th AUKGBK
491110 10-th AAVCBK VIDEOTRON - seems to be a Canadian telco?
493110 10-th ADEUBK
495110 10-th ADEUBK
497110 10-th AISRBK
499500 10-th AUKGBK
502035 11-th AUSGBK
507035 11-th AUSGBK
512035 11-th AUS8BK
513035 11-th AUS8BK

Production rate seems to be accelerating to 20k devices per day.





577,000 mark on January 13, 2013.

<model>LGE960</model>
<suffix>AUKGBK</suffix>
<msn>301KPAE577000</msn>
<esndate>20130113</esndate>
<buyer>UKG</buyer>
<esnoutgodate>null</esnoutgodate>
<ULocationcode>N</ULocationcode>
<buyername>UNITED KINGDOM_OPEN</buyername>
<csn>LG0000502521437</csn>

 

[BookReader2]

More here:

LG Mobile France director talks Nexus 4 supplies, Optimus G Euro launch | Android Central

Speaking with French outlet Challenges.fr, Robin says "the supply problems are not solely related to LG." Apparently Google presented LG with Play Store sales forecasts based on the performance of previous Nexus phones, but these turned out to be far exceeded by actual demand for the device. Despite these issues, she insists things are going "very well" between LG and Google.

The LG director also took the opportunity to dismiss rumors that Nexus 4 production was slowing down or halting entirely. On the contrary, Robin claims that LG is ramping up production, and that by mid-February there should be "no more pressure" on the market.

Robin denies LG is selling the Nexus 4 at a loss, but says there's an agreement in place with Google to sell it at a "very attractive price."

Volume to make up for low margin?

Example using hypothetical #:

selling 4 million at $25 profit = $100 million profit
selling 1.1 million at $80 profit = $88 million profit

 

[minnemike]

haha - this was my original suspicion vs all the conspiracy theories tossed around. They simply could not understand the market dynamic at play here well enough. Never underestimate the power of pure money (unlocked + no contract + cheap) and the power of geekdom (pure android).

 

[BookReader2]

The current rate of production could look something like this

October: 70,000 produced
November: 90,000
Dec: 210,000
January: 400,000- 500,000
February: 700,000 - 900,000 (very doable since they are at 20,000 per day mid-January)

On the contrary, Robin claims that LG is ramping up production, and that by mid-February there should be "no more pressure" on the market.




LG France Mobile Chief Reveals The Truth About The Nexus 4?s Supply Problems | Cult of Android

LG is producing just as many handsets as Google ordered, then, but it hasn?t been meeting initial demand. As we had suspected, the device seems to have become far more popular than Google was anticipating, and it wasn?t prepared to fill so many orders.

?The current shipments from LG to Google match what had been preordered on the Google Play site,? Robin said. ?We still ship them regularly. But it?s ?just-in-time?. That?s why the Nexus 4 is always shown as sold out and the potential buyers have the feeling they can?t buy it.?

The other issue here is how the Nexus 4 has been distributed. Google decided to send a certain number of handsets to certain countries, while others got a far greater number. The search giant obviously expected the device to sell faster in certain markets, but it didn?t quite get its predictions right.

?As an example, the initial predictions of Google were 10 times higher for the United Kingdom and for Germany,? Robin revealed. ?So we ship a lot more to these countries than to France. There was a happy medium that was badly anticipated.?

Despite this, Robin insists that ?everything is going smoothly? between Google and LG.

 

[TheLibertarian]

Is this really a surprise? This was the only logical explanation. All those unfounded theories about LG delaying production and whatnot were pure garbage.

 

[pugnuttt]

Funny, I'm here in the usa and mine says AUSGBK.

 

[Ry]

If true, it's funny when people blame LG when Google probably didn't order enough. How's that for faith in your product?

 

[Hubertsng]

We've found out already, it isn't the huge demand but the fact that they aren't making enough...

 

[imtiax]

Is this not the reason why PREORDERS were invented. So that customers could PREORDER, so the Company would have a good number to give to the manufacturer to mass produce.
If google let us pre order the Nexus 4 weeks before they started selling it the play store, we would not have had this issue.

 

[taj7575]

This is what I've been saying for months.

Google does not understand what a proper Supply Chain is, or how to forecast for a product. They don't even understand that arguably the best phone in the market (back in November, at least) selling for $350 unlocked will sell a lot. LG is just the OEM; the supplier. They make the amount Google tells them to make. If the forecast is off, it messes up things for at least a few months.

I love Google, but they really need to Forecast the demand of their products better.

 

[greatgoogly]

Was in stock for a few minutes earlier on T-Mobile USA, but went out of stock within an hour. TMO News

 

[TheLibertarian]

We've found out already, it isn't the huge demand but the fact that they aren't making enough...

I'm pretty sure it was the huge demand that Google didn't anticipate... so yes, it was demand.

 

[bobjohnson201]

Is this not the reason why PREORDERS were invented. So that customers could PREORDER, so the Company would have a good number to give to the manufacturer to mass produce.
If google let us pre order the Nexus 4 weeks before they started selling it the play store, we would not have had this issue.

they did preorders with the nexus 7 and i heard it was a disaster. Google just sucks at selling hardware.

 

[Hubertsng]

I'm pretty sure it was the huge demand that Google didn't anticipate... so yes, it was demand.

i mean they still aren't making a lot even though it's been two months but at least it is increasing.

 

[chestvrg]

My $.02; I also agree this was a demand issue. Google should have forecast more units then it ordered. I'm sure there has to be a better way/system to forecast sales not based on previous sales, but to use previous sales only as a variable, not the entire function. I'm not a mathematician either LOL (criminal justice degree), but man Google nailed it upside down with the N4 orders

 

[imtiax]

they did preorders with the nexus 7 and i heard it was a disaster. Google just sucks at selling hardware.

Why don't they just purchase a company that can do this stuff for them.

Google makes good stuff, we all know that, but they are terrible at getting it to the consumer. Just gobble up a small company and let them manage distribution.

 

[bobjohnson201]

Why don't they just purchase a company that can do this stuff for them.

Google makes good stuff, we all know that, but they are terrible at getting it to the consumer. Just gobble up a small company and let them manage distribution.

maybe they should do just that. the nexus brand is becoming bigger and bigger

 

[minnemike]

My guess is it isn't capability. It's more like decision making at the top. I bet some heads are already rolling.

 

[Issemann]

Why don't they just purchase a company that can do this stuff for them.

I thought they did - - - > MOTOROLA

 

[minnemike]

I thought they did - - - > MOTOROLA

Yeah - and moto seems overburdened with supplying Verizon a zillion phones.

But I think they were referring more to the retail end, not so much manufacturing.