Nexus 7 will lead Android tablets to overtake the iPad

[crackberrytraitor]

http://betanews.com/2012/07/24/nexu...ets-to-overtake-ipad/#dsq-form-area-596576327


Fantastic article. Really enlightening.

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[natehoy]

It might. This is obviously Google's intent in subsidizing the hardware so they are selling it barely above cost.

The big thing is going to be Apple's reaction to this. Apple is doing a few things right (introducing a smaller iPad which should be able to come close to competing to the Nexus 7) and a few things wrong (alienating their entire installed base of devices by changing the "standard Apple connector" to an incompatible connector that is also not an industry standard like USB Micro).

Apple took the early risks in coming forward with the implementation (if not the concept) of the fondleslabs we all enjoy, both in small form and large. As a result, they enjoyed a starting lead out of the gate. They also have a few market advantages like a monolithic model lineup (basically boiling down to "how much memory do you want?"), and more consistent support for software upgrades (since all devices are from a single vendor).

Apple's biggest problem is that they must remain "all things to all people" in order to maintain a leadership position, and they are competing against multiple players who are also each competing against the other. ONE killer device like the Nexus 7 could knock them cleanly off the podium.

Their second-biggest problem is the timing of their hardware shift to the new connector port. Many thousands of people spent good money buying devices that accept Apple devices specifically because the form-factor across all Apple devices is similar enough that a simple shim (at worst) could make a clock radio take both an iPod Gen 2 and an iPhone 4S. You'll see a certain percentage of the population say "hell, if I have to plug in an adapter and have a cable and leave my device lying next to the clock radio, why not buy this Android tablet for $100 less and use USB?

But they've still got an established base of iTunes users with their music and media locked (*) into that infrastructure, so the battle is going to really be interesting over the next 12-18 months. This Christmas is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Apple will probably have the iPhone 5 and the iPad Mini, but Google just shook the foundations of the Android fondleslab market and I do not expect Amazon to sit back and watch their Kindle Fire get upstaged due to the potential massive loss of media sales. I fully expect a $200 16GB decent-spec Fire from Amazon in the very near future, and Samsung isn't going to take this sitting down either.


(*) I realize that you can extract Apple's FLAC files into MP3s, but last I knew this was, like the Google Play Store, a song-by-song manual process - not something most people would approach casually if it was "only" going to save them a little money.


The Nexus 7 does have one bad thing - reports of poor gluing of the screen - this could prompt a bit of a backlash if too many bad units end up out in the field.

Apple's iPod Mini will sell, but the question is how much loss are they willing to take this Christmas to keep the iPod on top of the podium? Because they're going to be late to the game in the 7-to-8 inch space, and their product is probably going to cost a good chunk more. The 7-inch tablet is not going to be seen as a long-term investment like the 10-incher by then, since there will probably be at least a half dozen viable feature-rich $200 7-inchers and more than a few $100 adequate e-readers (say something with a TFT screen, a 1GHz single-core processor, 16GB RAM, front-facing camera, SD port, and decent 6-to-8-hour battery).

If Apple walks in with a $300-350 competitor four months after everyone has gotten used to the devices costing $200 or even less, they'll still have a die-hard fan base who will sell out the initial build run in a few days.

But they'll have lost that first-to-market edge that they've enjoyed for quite some time now.

Gonna be a fun year no matter what, and a good year for us consumers because the big players are finally competing in the tablet space.

 

[crackberrytraitor]

It might. This is obviously Google's intent in subsidizing the hardware so they are selling it barely above cost.

The big thing is going to be Apple's reaction to this. Apple is doing a few things right (introducing a smaller iPad which should be able to come close to competing to the Nexus 7) and a few things wrong (alienating their entire installed base of devices by changing the "standard Apple connector" to an incompatible connector that is also not an industry standard like USB Micro).

Apple took the early risks in coming forward with the implementation (if not the concept) of the fondleslabs we all enjoy, both in small form and large. As a result, they enjoyed a starting lead out of the gate. They also have a few market advantages like a monolithic model lineup (basically boiling down to "how much memory do you want?"), and more consistent support for software upgrades (since all devices are from a single vendor).

Apple's biggest problem is that they must remain "all things to all people" in order to maintain a leadership position, and they are competing against multiple players who are also each competing against the other. ONE killer device like the Nexus 7 could knock them cleanly off the podium.

Their second-biggest problem is the timing of their hardware shift to the new connector port. Many thousands of people spent good money buying devices that accept Apple devices specifically because the form-factor across all Apple devices is similar enough that a simple shim (at worst) could make a clock radio take both an iPod Gen 2 and an iPhone 4S. You'll see a certain percentage of the population say "hell, if I have to plug in an adapter and have a cable and leave my device lying next to the clock radio, why not buy this Android tablet for $100 less and use USB?

But they've still got an established base of iTunes users with their music and media locked (*) into that infrastructure, so the battle is going to really be interesting over the next 12-18 months. This Christmas is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Apple will probably have the iPhone 5 and the iPad Mini, but Google just shook the foundations of the Android fondleslab market and I do not expect Amazon to sit back and watch their Kindle Fire get upstaged due to the potential massive loss of media sales. I fully expect a $200 16GB decent-spec Fire from Amazon in the very near future, and Samsung isn't going to take this sitting down either.


(*) I realize that you can extract Apple's FLAC files into MP3s, but last I knew this was, like the Google Play Store, a song-by-song manual process - not something most people would approach casually if it was "only" going to save them a little money.


The Nexus 7 does have one bad thing - reports of poor gluing of the screen - this could prompt a bit of a backlash if too many bad units end up out in the field.

Apple's iPod Mini will sell, but the question is how much loss are they willing to take this Christmas to keep the iPod on top of the podium? Because they're going to be late to the game in the 7-to-8 inch space, and their product is probably going to cost a good chunk more. The 7-inch tablet is not going to be seen as a long-term investment like the 10-incher by then, since there will probably be at least a half dozen viable feature-rich $200 7-inchers and more than a few $100 adequate e-readers (say something with a TFT screen, a 1GHz single-core processor, 16GB RAM, front-facing camera, SD port, and decent 6-to-8-hour battery).

If Apple walks in with a $300-350 competitor four months after everyone has gotten used to the devices costing $200 or even less, they'll still have a die-hard fan base who will sell out the initial build run in a few days.

But they'll have lost that first-to-market edge that they've enjoyed for quite some time now.

Gonna be a fun year no matter what, and a good year for us consumers because the big players are finally competing in the tablet space.

Great post. I think it's interesting that Android has taken market share from Apple in the tablet market twice as fast as it did in the smartphone market. I would also note that all the smaller screens Apple is currently buying (which led to the iPad mini rumors) are of 1024x768, which would make them inferior to the Nexus 7. I also don't see them selling their device for nearly zero profit, like their competitors. Not once in Apples history have they done this, where Google is well known for doing this numerous times to break into markets. I just think this is kind of funny, as this same paradigm has been replayed over and over, first with Windows, then with Android smartphones and now with Android tablets. Apple needs to change their game.

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[mkiker2089]

Here's the thing I'm waiting for, and I'll keep this short. In the past dollar for dollar you always got less with Apple. That's not an opinion nor Apple bashing, it's a pure fact. You may have gotten other percs but hardware at least no one can argue that. Will Apple

- make the iPad mini 200 and comparable to the Nexus 7dollars and finally sell at competitive prices
- do the usual and charge 1 to 2 hundred more for the same specs as the Nexus 7
- make it with poorer specs to compete at price only.

I suspect they'll go for option 2 and charge more, but I think any of the above answers will hurt them. Apple's days of owning the hand held market are over. Not entirely because of anything they've done, just because no one cared to compete with them before. They won't overtake Windows, they've given up the browser war, and now is the time for them to become a niche again. In a way that's where they do their best anyway. Would a Ferrari be as cool if the old man across the street drove one to the drug store?

 

[mkiker2089]

Let me add that Apple didn't create the tablet. It existed before. Actually if you go to Newton Apple was early but..the issue is that computer hardware had to become affordable at that scale. If anything smart phones created the market and held the place as they improved. Now tablets are capable of outpowering laptops of a few years ago.

You might say Star Trek created the tablet, but I can't be sure of it's fictional origins.

 

[crackberrytraitor]

Here's the thing I'm waiting for, and I'll keep this short. In the past dollar for dollar you always got less with Apple. That's not an opinion nor Apple bashing, it's a pure fact. You may have gotten other percs but hardware at least no one can argue that. Will Apple

- make the iPad mini 200 and comparable to the Nexus 7dollars and finally sell at competitive prices
- do the usual and charge 1 to 2 hundred more for the same specs as the Nexus 7
- make it with poorer specs to compete at price only.

I suspect they'll go for option 2 and charge more, but I think any of the above answers will hurt them. Apple's days of owning the hand held market are over. Not entirely because of anything they've done, just because no one cared to compete with them before. They won't overtake Windows, they've given up the browser war, and now is the time for them to become a niche again. In a way that's where they do their best anyway. Would a Ferrari be as cool if the old man across the street drove one to the drug store?

I think they're going for option 3 based on the 7 inch 1024x768 touchscreens apple is buying en masse.

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[mkiker2089]

Ah, well if they go option 3 then they really screwed up. They have an elitism going now that would accept a price hike, wouldn't fully appreciate a price cut (as price is part of the culture and perceived value) but would certainly hate to have poorer equipment than the guy over there with that nasty freeware on his tablet.

 

[Cubfan]

The author has a vivid imagination.

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[Ravynmagi]

Nexus 7 is great. But there is so much distance between Android and Apple in tablet market share right now. I doubt it'll be the Nexus 7 that will lead Android tablets in eclipsing Apple tablet market share, but maybe the a later Nexus tablet.

But Nexus 7 is probably going to give Android a good kick start in that direction. Samsung, Motorola, Toshiba, Lenovo, just about everyone has been really disappointing this year. Only bright spot seems to be ASUS and maybe Acer. This the Galaxy Tab 2 suppose to be a weird joke I don't get and the Galaxy Note 10.1, WTF Samsung?

Apparently Google and ASUS have to do this on their own, because the other Android tablet manufactures really aren't doing a damn thing right now.

I am not discounting Microsoft either. I don't have any plans on getting a Windows 8 tablet, seems like they'll be too expensive with almost no real tablet optimized apps in the beginning. But they are tying their tablets tightly with Windows and Xbox though and who knows what impact that'll have.

PS. And Google hopefully will have a Nexus 10 out this year. 7 inch tablet is nice. But unfortunately I'm not selling my iPad 3 until I have a 10 inch Nexus tablet (or maybe a Transformer Infinity with Jelly Bean and the fixed IO issue).

 

[credo]

PS. And Google hopefully will have a Nexus 10 out this year. 7 inch tablet is nice. But unfortunately I'm not selling my iPad 3 until I have a 10 inch Nexus tablet (or maybe a Transformer Infinity with Jelly Bean and the fixed IO issue).

An N10 that completely synced with my N7 when near each other would be great. The 10 for home and 7 for travel.


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[Guineaa]

I think first you have to make a tablet whose screen does not lift off from the left edge and have customer service that is not a 40 minute wait on the phone which ends with "we'll charge your credit card for the replacement first and make sure we can replicate the reason for your return, or we'll charge you for two Nexus 7s."

There's a lot to be said about having real customer service and B&M retail/showcase stores like Apple does. Most normal people don't have that much time around to be spending hours taking the back off their tablet and screwing screws and applying superglue, or waiting on the line for the non-existent customer service rep to email them instructions on what to do next. Or spend hours reading reviews before buying a device, most would like to actually have the device in hand and play with it a little before committing. Diehards exist in both camps, but none of them really move the market that much.

 

[splmonster]

I think first you have to make a tablet whose screen does not lift off from the left edge and have customer service that is not a 40 minute wait on the phone which ends with "we'll charge your credit card for the replacement first and make sure we can replicate the reason for your return, or we'll charge you for two Nexus 7s."

There's a lot to be said about having real customer services and B&M retail stores like Apple does.

Funny you mention it, a simple Google Search will also show that the iPad's have also suffered from these issues at launch. Imagine that! My old iPad 2 had both a screen lift, and had about 6 dead pixels. I ended up getting a total of 3 iPad's, before getting one worth it. All three continued to have the issue of light leakage, which is hugely common on iPad's because LG is notorious for that on their panels.

It also leads me and everyone here to believe that since you joined this month, and have said nothing but negetive remarks towards the Nexus 7 in this entire forum. You joined just to do so. Bash the product. Do your research, and it will warrant results of the iPad having the same types of issues.

 

[Guineaa]

Funny you mention it, a simple Google Search will also show that the iPad's have also suffered from these issues at launch. Imagine that! My old iPad 2 had both a screen lift, and had about 6 dead pixels. I ended up getting a total of 3 iPad's, before getting one worth it. All three continued to have the issue of light leakage, which is hugely common on iPad's because LG is notorious for that on their panels.

It also leads me and everyone here to believe that since you joined this month, and have said nothing but negetive remarks towards the Nexus 7 in this entire forum. You joined just to do so. Bash the product. Do your research, and it will warrant results of the iPad having the same types of issues.

Yeah, I am bashing the Nexus, because I was really excited to get it, and I'm abhorred by the customer service from the Google play store. Maybe I'm expecting too much that a $250 device should not have loose adhesive crackles when I touch the touchscreen. And I remain unconvinced that we with screen lift are actually in the minority here.

And Apple sells how many ipads to get a few problem threads? How many Nexus 7s have Google sold? Many GameStop stores had only 2-3 in stock from the get go; the vast majority sold are preorders from Google. The concept of prevalence is your friend.

 

[splmonster]

Yeah, I am bashing the Nexus, because I was really excited to get it, and I'm abhorred by the customer service from the Google play store. Maybe I'm expecting too much that a $250 device should not have loose adhesive crackles when I touch the touchscreen. And I remain unconvinced that we with screen lift are actually in the minority here.

And Apple sells how many ipads to get a few problem threads? How many Nexus 7s have Google sold? Many GameStop stores had only 2-3 in stock from the get go; the vast majority sold are preorders from Google. The concept of prevalence is your friend.

I have had pleasant experiences with Google's CS. I also expected the same thing from a 700 dollar iPad, but those issues still arised in something that costed much more. Not to give any sort of excuse to anyone, or the OEM... But this is the market of mass produced electronics. Flaws and faults are in all kinds, not just the Nexus 7. It's everything today, that has to do with electronics.

Terrible example, because Asus and Google did not produce even a small fraction of what Apple did for iPad on launch. When I first purchased the iPad 2, the forums everywhere were litered in threads of issues and problems. To this day those threads still exist, and do for many electronics.

Also just to add, I have zero lift on my Nexus 7. Guess I'm lucky.

 

[mkiker2089]

Nexus 7 is great. But there is so much distance between Android and Apple in tablet market share right now. I doubt it'll be the Nexus 7 that will lead Android tablets in eclipsing Apple tablet market share, but maybe the a later Nexus tablet.
.

I disagree. You are looking at mobile devices in an insular way. Apple has the lead because they were first. If you look at 100 computer users (these stats are all over the news and haven't changed in years) 95 use Windows, 1 will use some variant of Linux, and only 4 use Apple. The market has spoken.

We in tech hobby see it more because we have to. We keep up with all tech no matter how relevant the same as car guys keeping up with the latest SSC supercar. It doesn't translate to real world numbers however.

Short version, Apple mobile users are free to abandon it based on purchased app investment only. They have little loyalty beyond the small cult numbers. ITunes on droid would literally kill them and having it on PC's already is damning enough. Times will change much faster than many think.

 

[mkiker2089]

Forgot one thing. Apple has already lost majority. Android needs to pick up some numbers but there isn't a clear mobile (including phones) leader.

 

[djhgdfkg]

i do not know how to describe apple ,after job's death, no innovation any more....while android is really different, maybe someday it will better than apple.

 

[mkiker2089]

i do not know how to describe apple ,after job's death, no innovation any more....while android is really different, maybe someday it will better than apple.

Jobs was Apple in many ways. He made stuff that he actually liked which is much better than bland "by comitee" stuff others were tossing out

 

[Ry]

Google can give away all the Android they want. It won't matter if Apple continues to make way more money than anyone else.

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[mkiker2089]

Google can give away all the Android they want. It won't matter if Apple continues to make way more money than anyone else.

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That's where it gets interesting. The profits are largely from iTunes according to people who have access to the shareholder meetings.