How many Xooms will Motorola sell in 3 months?

[Maikai.Guy]

Please, let's not get into this again. You're comparing the iPhone 4 to ALL OTHER ANDROID PHONES COMBINED. Not to a single Android phone. The i4 has sold way more than any single Android phone, and the iPad has and will sell better than any single Android tablet - including the XOOM at these rumored prices.

You're preaching to the choir here when saying this XOOM will be a better tablet, but that's not the point. Faced with this single product the XOOM, or the iPAD, at this price point normal consumers don't see what we do ..

Please try to stay in context. I was responding to someone saying "...it's expensive and there's also the iPad 2 to compete with."

My point was this is exactly the same thing we heard last year regarding a slew of new Android phones and the iPhone. Almost these exact words were said about the [fill in the blank] Android phone. That class of Android phones, even though people called them out individually as too expensive and had the iPhone4 to compete with, did EXTREMELY well against iOS as a class... Android versus iOS.

So, yes, it's all about comparing Android versus iOS, because that's exactly what's happening here. Just because we're focused on XOOM, doesn't mean the market is. The market is Android versus iOS, not Mot XOOM versus iPad. There are other great Android platforms about to be released.

Just fill in the blank with "XOOM" or "LG Slate" or any of the other soon to be released tablet. There is someone right now saying the LG Slate will not do well against the iPad. And so on, and so on, just fill in the blank with the name of an Android tablet... This is a replay of last year and I seem to be the only one able to recognize that. It's the same silly claims and comments.

Time will tell.

 

[dsignori]

Please try to stay in context. I was responding to someone saying "...it's expensive and there's also the iPad 2 to compete with."

My point was this is exactly the same thing we heard last year regarding a slew of new Android phones and the iPhone. Almost these exact words were said about the [fill in the blank] Android phone. That class of Android phones, even though people called them out individually as too expensive and had the iPhone4 to compete with, did EXTREMELY well against iOS as a class... Android versus iOS.

So, yes, it's all about comparing Android versus iOS, because that's exactly what's happening here. Just because we're focused on XOOM, doesn't mean the market is. The market is Android versus iOS, not Mot XOOM versus iPad. There are other great Android platforms about to be released.

Just fill in the blank with "XOOM" or "LG Slate" or any of the other soon to be released tablet. There is someone right now saying the LG Slate will not do well against the iPad. And so on, and so on, just fill in the blank with the name of an Android tablet... This is a replay of last year and I seem to be the only one able to recognize that. It's the same silly claims and comments.

Time will tell.

The funny thing is we agree on most of this. I am just trying to point out that if the question is: "Will Honeycomb tablets sell better and be more popular (in total) than the iPad eventually?" All of us here would probably agree that yes they will. You are not the only one to recognize that This however is a forum, and thread about the XOOM itself and how well the XOOM, itself , will sell over the first 3 months. Dragging all of iOS and Android into is just fogs up the thread.

I still think we are just loudly agreeing

 

[Maikai.Guy]

... I am just trying to point out that if the question is: "Will Honeycomb tablets sell better and be more popular (in total) than the iPad eventually?" ... This however is a forum, and thread about the XOOM itself and how well the XOOM, itself , will sell over the first 3 months. Dragging all of iOS and Android into is just fogs up the thread.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

IMHO, the parallel to last year can not be ignored when talking about how many XOOMs will be sold in the first three months. All these great tabs coming out are going to eat into each other's market share, just like all the great new Android phones ate into each other last year.

How do you discuss the performance of just one platform in isolation of the rest? It's like trying to describe the motion of one planet without allowing any discussion of the solar system. The individual planet and the larger solar system are so intimately entwined that the discussion of one necessitates mention of the other.

I'm in for 500K to 1M. I think it will be much closer to 500K than 1M, because, again, we're having a repeat of last year. If all those other great tabs were not in the wings, ready to debut, than my numbers for XOOM would be quite a bit higher. But all those other Tabs ARE out there. They are the 300lb gorilla in the room you apparently want me to completely ignore. The good news is I think this is the game changing turning point for tabs, just like it was a turning point to phones last year.

 

[dsignori]

We'll have to agree to disagree.

IMHO, the parallel to last year can not be ignored when talking about how many XOOMs will be sold in the first three months. All these great tabs coming out are going to eat into each other's market share, just like all the great new Android phones ate into each other last year.

How do you discuss the performance of just one platform in isolation of the rest? It's like trying to describe the motion of one planet without allowing any discussion of the solar system. The individual planet and the larger solar system are so intimately entwined that the discussion of one necessitates mention of the other.

I'm in for 500K to 1M. I think it will be much closer to 500K than 1M, because, again, we're having a repeat of last year. If all those other great tabs were not in the wings, ready to debut, than my numbers for XOOM would be quite a bit higher. But all those other Tabs ARE out there. They are the 300lb gorilla in the room you apparently want me to completely ignore. The good news is I think this is the game changing turning point for tabs, just like it was a turning point to phones last year.

I am sorry you don't seem to accept that we agree, so let me try it this way:

-You think Honeycomb is far superior to iOS, I think Honeycomb is far superior to iOS
- You think Honeycomb tablets will end up far outselling the iPad(s) on iOS, I think Honeycomb tablets will end up far outselling the iPad(s) on iOS
- You think there will be many superior Honeycomb tablets to choose from, I think there will be many superior Honeycomb tablets to choose from.
- You think the XOOM will be awesome, I think the XOOM will be awesome.

I am sorry if I agree, but I do

With that I will cease my responses here since there doesn't appear much more to say of value.

 

[lonswain]

Samsung may have distributed 2 million Tabs, I'm betting 1/5 that number or less actually sold. Until android tablet makers beat Apple on price, they are not going to sell big numbers. And until there's a big user base, you're not going to attract development of a lot of top tier applications. Pricing is more important than open source. iPads are a perceived value buy. People don't relate the cost of parts and constuction to the retail price. Android buyers are much more likely to to balk at paying $800 (or $600 or $400) for $250 worth of parts. And with a fraction of the OS development costs that Apple has to recoupe, there's really no excuse.

 

[Maikai.Guy]

Samsung may have distributed 2 million Tabs, I'm betting 1/5 that number or less actually sold. Until android tablet makers beat Apple on price, they are not going to sell big numbers. And until there's a big user base, you're not going to attract development of a lot of top tier applications. Pricing is more important than open source. iPads are a perceived value buy. People don't relate the cost of parts and constuction to the retail price. Android buyers are much more likely to to balk at paying $800 (or $600 or $400) for $250 worth of parts. And with a fraction of the OS development costs that Apple has to recoupe, there's really no excuse.

If your premise were true, than $200 Android phones would not have enjoyed success against iPhone.

There is now a larger installed base of Android users than iOS users. There is undoubtedly pent up desire for Android tablets among these many users. In that sense, this comes down to iOS versus Android in general.

The more specific question "How many XOOMs will sell?" is tied up in not only the iOS versus Android issue, but also XOOM versus other Android platforms. There are quite a few impressive Android platforms being readied for release. A frugal/prudent buyer would wait until they are all released, competing with each other and the price war is in full swing. This is the only reason I don't believe XOOM will be a tremendous success in it's first quarter. It will definitely be a very successful platform, but don't expect millions of orders the first few weeks.

In any case, I predict the installed base of iOS tablets will be matched and possibly overtaken within 12 months of XOOM's release date.

 

[ckeegan003]

Samsung may have distributed 2 million Tabs, I'm betting 1/5 that number or less actually sold.

Samsung confirmed that they sold (not simply distributed) a million Galaxy Tabs in the first month of availability, so your number is way off.

 

[quetzalcoatl]

Samsung confirmed that they sold (not simply distributed) a million Galaxy Tabs in the first month of availability, so your number is way off.

But how many of those were in South Korea where they can do no wrong?