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View Poll Results: How many Xooms will Moto sell worldwide within 3 months?

Voters
39. You may not vote on this poll
  • 500,000 or less

    17 43.59%
  • 500,000 - 1,000,000

    9 23.08%
  • 1,000,001 - 2,000,000

    5 12.82%
  • 2,000,001 - 3,000,000

    6 15.38%
  • 3,000,001 or more

    2 5.13%
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  1. Thread Author  Thread Author    #1  

    Default How many Xooms will Motorola sell in 3 months?

    We're talking worldwide here...

    After I read that Samsung has sold 2 million Galaxy Tabs in the last 3 months (approx), just thought I'd pose this question, since everyone is so consumed with the (rumored) price of the Xoom.

    Keep in mind that the Galaxy Tab was originally priced at $600-650 depending on carrier. Currently in the US, you can get it at Verizon (off contract) for $500, $550 from AT&T (off contract), $600 at T-Mobile (off contract), or Sprint has it for $300 (+$720 at their cheapest data plan, or cancel the plan and pay $200 ETF).

    This means that, based on the rumored Xoom prices, the Xoom will launch in the US for $49-149 more than the Galaxy Tab was at launch.

    -ckeegan
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  2. #2  
    Chris Kerrigan's Avatar

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    Based on it's price point, I'm going to go with 500,000 or less. As much as I love this thing, I don't see very many people going out and dumping that kind of money on it, especially since average consumers know little to nothing about it thus far.

    Keep in mind, Motorola expects to ship 800,000 Xooms, but shipped numbers and actual sales are two totally different figures.

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  3. #3  
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    I think the Galaxy Tab did good because of its multiple carrier thing.
  4. #4  
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    I don't think people will have a hard time getting one like some of the android phones last year. I can say I will buy one. Since it was mentioned I wanted it. Was thinking 600 but if I have to fork over another hundred or two I guess I will. So 1 sale for sure but I think total would be 400 to 500 thousand. In three months it could see a price drop and maybe other cheaper versions to boost numbers.

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  5. #5  

    Default Game changers

    I think the XOOM represents the first of the game changers of the Android tablets, just like the HTC Incredible, and all those that came soon after, were to Android phones. The Android phone market was primed with the Nexus and the Droid1, but John Q Public didn't recognize the awesomeness until last April when the slew of announcements hit.

    I predict a repeat of last April, but in the tablet world. There are so many good tablets coming... one after another... just like last year with phones.

    And if you listen to the press and remember back a year, it's the same buzz. We're hearing the same Apple versus Android **** and how Apple is the powerhouse. The same silly comments were being made by the same silly Apple fan-boys. I don't have the exact quotes, but it was like:
    "Why compare it to an iPhone3 when the iPhone4 is about to be released?"...
    "The news about the iPhone4 will drown out any Android news."...
    "Why would anyone pay $200 for an Android phone when they could get an iPhone4 for that?"...
    yada, yada, yada,...
    "It will take at least a year and a half to two years for Android to build ups apps and begin to come close to Apple's shipping rate."

    Well... it took only weeks for Android to beat Apple's shipping rate and only eight months for Android to displace Apple as the #2 installed phone OS in North America.

    Thank you for attending our reenactment of last year. The part of the Android phones will be played by Android tablets. ;-)
  6. #6  
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    Im thinkin the 800 dollar price tag is gonna hurt it

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  7. #7  
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    That is a tough question. Now doubt it is geared for the high end user, but the market is getting saturated with tabs. It will be interesting to see for sure.
  8. #8  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Kerrigan View Post
    Based on it's price point, I'm going to go with 500,000 or less. As much as I love this thing, I don't see very many people going out and dumping that kind of money on it, especially since average consumers know little to nothing about it thus far.

    Keep in mind, Motorola expects to **** 800,000 Xooms, but shipped numbers and actual sales are two totally different figures.
    Yup. I am with you.
  9. #9  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Kerrigan View Post
    Based on it's price point, I'm going to go with 500,000 or less. As much as I love this thing, I don't see very many people going out and dumping that kind of money on it, especially since average consumers know little to nothing about it thus far.

    Keep in mind, Motorola expects to ship 800,000 Xooms, but shipped numbers and actual sales are two totally different figures.
    I am right there with you. But it makes we wonder what those that are above 1mil are thinking. If the manafactuer is only expecting to ship 800K do they even have the ability to ratchet up production if it becomes a run away hit and there is a demand for even 50% more units. And if they can produce them can they get them to market fast enough to sell that many more within the time frame?
  10. #10  
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    It's hard to speculate if Motorola would be able to keep up with demand if sales were to exceed what they're expecting to ship. Keep in mind, that's the figure for the first quarter of the year, and considering the Xoom isn't coming out until halfway through the 1st quarter, that's a very, VERY optimistic number.

    Essentially, Motorola is prepared to ship 800K Xooms in just over 6 weeks.

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  11. Thread Author  Thread Author    #11  

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Kerrigan View Post
    Essentially, Motorola is prepared to ship 800K Xooms in just over 6 weeks.
    Exactly. Basically, the poll is saying how many Xooms do you think Motorola will sell between March/April/May? I also said worldwide, since it's the only "apples to apples" way to compare it Galaxy Tab. We obviously don't know worldwide plans yet, other than the leak from Latin America suggesting that it will launch Wi-Fi only in April, 3G in May.

    Anyway, it's just hard for me to imagine that the Galaxy Tab (regardless of how many carriers had it) would outsell the Xoom by that much. Seriously, TouchWiz and Froyo on a 7" screen for basically only $100 less than the price of the Xoom at launch? No-brainer for me.
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  12. #12  
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    no brainer as what is the device to have, but how much of the market is absorbed? Will be interesting for sure...
  13. #13  

    Default

    Consider that since these are all coming from Asia ship time to the US will be around 20 days on a container ship. So Even though we are only looking at it being on the market for approx 1 month of the quarter they will be shipping them for almost 2 of the months.
    The 800K units has not been said that it is US it is from suppliers. So I would suspect that it worldwide shipping numbers as well not just the US.
  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by quetzalcoatl View Post
    Consider that since these are all coming from Asia ship time to the US will be around 20 days on a container ship. So Even though we are only looking at it being on the market for approx 1 month of the quarter they will be shipping them for almost 2 of the months.
    The 800K units has not been said that it is US it is from suppliers. So I would suspect that it worldwide shipping numbers as well not just the US.
    As of now this is a Verizon exclusive, I highly doubt at least for the first few months Motorola will be selling this thing in other markets.

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  15. #15  

    Default

    I think that Tab was reduced in price bc it sucked. I hate to sound so hateful but I've played with it and it's not a quality product. May be the first of many tablets but that doesn't make it good. Anyways there's no way over 500,000 of these will sell. It's a great product but it's expensive and there's also the iPad 2 to compete with.
  16. #16  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by quetzalcoatl View Post
    Consider that since these are all coming from Asia ship time to the US will be around 20 days on a container ship. So Even though we are only looking at it being on the market for approx 1 month of the quarter they will be shipping them for almost 2 of the months.
    The 800K units has not been said that it is US it is from suppliers. So I would suspect that it worldwide shipping numbers as well not just the US.
    The first few hundred thousand are probably built and sitting somewhere here in the States, probably waiting for the release version of Honeycomb. The rest are most likely being built/packaged/shipped as we write this stuff.

    No major manufacturer debuting a product with this attention will wait for a cargo ship. If they unit is late, they will make up time, bite the bullet, and fly the units. That has been the norm for years.
  17. #17  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Walter E Kurtz View Post
    ...it's expensive and there's also the iPad 2 to compete with.
    Hey Guys, Don't fall into that trap. Last year we heard the same thing about iPhone4 with regards to the newer Android phones that were being released. I remember when I gave up my iPhone for the HTC Incredible, my friends were shocked that I'd pay as much for an Android as I would pay for the new iPhone4. They didn't get it, and neither does most of the bloggers and news outlets out there.

    What happened last year? Android kicked some ****. Why? Because it's a better and more complete solution... beyond the Flash thing.

    Mark my words, it's going to be a replay of last year.
  18. #18  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Maikai.Guy View Post
    Hey Guys, Don't fall into that trap. Last year we heard the same thing about iPhone4 with regards to the newer Android phones that were being released. I remember when I gave up my iPhone for the HTC Incredible, my friends were shocked that I'd pay as much for an Android as I would pay for the new iPhone4. They didn't get it, and neither does most of the bloggers and news outlets out there.

    What happened last year? Android kicked some ****. Why? Because it's a better and more complete solution... beyond the Flash thing.

    Mark my words, it's going to be a replay of last year.
    Please, let's not get into this again. You're comparing the iPhone 4 to ALL OTHER ANDROID PHONES COMBINED. Not to a single Android phone. The i4 has sold way more than any single Android phone, and the iPad has and will sell better than any single Android tablet - including the XOOM at these rumored prices.

    You're preaching to the choir here when saying this XOOM will be a better tablet, but that's not the point. Faced with this single product the XOOM, or the iPAD, at this price point normal consumers don't see what we do ..
  19. Thread Author  Thread Author    #19  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dsignori View Post
    Please, let's not get into this again. You're comparing the iPhone 4 to ALL OTHER ANDROID PHONES COMBINED. Not to a single Android phone. The i4 has sold way more than any single Android phone, and the iPad has and will sell better than any single Android tablet - including the XOOM at these rumored prices.

    You're preaching to the choir here when saying this XOOM will be a better tablet, but that's not the point. Faced with this single product the XOOM, or the iPAD, at this price point normal consumers don't see what we do ..
    Yeah, but I do think the normal consumer's first thought is iOS or Android, not Apple iPhone or HTC Incredible. It's not the consumer's fault or Google's fault that Apple's communist thought process is that they know what one device is perfect for every consumer.

    I honestly think it's most important to compare OS to OS when analyzing sales, not handset to handset. Again, nobody can control the fact that Apple decided no one wanted different screen sizes, form factors, etc.
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  20. #20  

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    Quote Originally Posted by ckeegan View Post
    Yeah, but I do think the normal consumer's first thought is iOS or Android, not Apple iPhone or HTC Incredible. It's not the consumer's fault or Google's fault that Apple's communist thought process is that they know what one device is perfect for every consumer.

    I honestly think it's most important to compare OS to OS when analyzing sales, not handset to handset. Again, nobody can control the fact that Apple decided no one wanted different screen sizes, form factors, etc.
    Yup, Agreed. I think we are all saying the same thing. Although, I think the average consumer has no idea what "iOS" is ...
  21. #21  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dsignori View Post
    Please, let's not get into this again. You're comparing the iPhone 4 to ALL OTHER ANDROID PHONES COMBINED. Not to a single Android phone. The i4 has sold way more than any single Android phone, and the iPad has and will sell better than any single Android tablet - including the XOOM at these rumored prices.

    You're preaching to the choir here when saying this XOOM will be a better tablet, but that's not the point. Faced with this single product the XOOM, or the iPAD, at this price point normal consumers don't see what we do ..
    Please try to stay in context. I was responding to someone saying "...it's expensive and there's also the iPad 2 to compete with."

    My point was this is exactly the same thing we heard last year regarding a slew of new Android phones and the iPhone. Almost these exact words were said about the [fill in the blank] Android phone. That class of Android phones, even though people called them out individually as too expensive and had the iPhone4 to compete with, did EXTREMELY well against iOS as a class... Android versus iOS.

    So, yes, it's all about comparing Android versus iOS, because that's exactly what's happening here. Just because we're focused on XOOM, doesn't mean the market is. The market is Android versus iOS, not Mot XOOM versus iPad. There are other great Android platforms about to be released.

    Just fill in the blank with "XOOM" or "LG Slate" or any of the other soon to be released tablet. There is someone right now saying the LG Slate will not do well against the iPad. And so on, and so on, just fill in the blank with the name of an Android tablet... This is a replay of last year and I seem to be the only one able to recognize that. It's the same silly claims and comments.

    Time will tell.
  22. #22  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Maikai.Guy View Post
    Please try to stay in context. I was responding to someone saying "...it's expensive and there's also the iPad 2 to compete with."

    My point was this is exactly the same thing we heard last year regarding a slew of new Android phones and the iPhone. Almost these exact words were said about the [fill in the blank] Android phone. That class of Android phones, even though people called them out individually as too expensive and had the iPhone4 to compete with, did EXTREMELY well against iOS as a class... Android versus iOS.

    So, yes, it's all about comparing Android versus iOS, because that's exactly what's happening here. Just because we're focused on XOOM, doesn't mean the market is. The market is Android versus iOS, not Mot XOOM versus iPad. There are other great Android platforms about to be released.

    Just fill in the blank with "XOOM" or "LG Slate" or any of the other soon to be released tablet. There is someone right now saying the LG Slate will not do well against the iPad. And so on, and so on, just fill in the blank with the name of an Android tablet... This is a replay of last year and I seem to be the only one able to recognize that. It's the same silly claims and comments.

    Time will tell.
    The funny thing is we agree on most of this. I am just trying to point out that if the question is: "Will Honeycomb tablets sell better and be more popular (in total) than the iPad eventually?" All of us here would probably agree that yes they will. You are not the only one to recognize that This however is a forum, and thread about the XOOM itself and how well the XOOM, itself , will sell over the first 3 months. Dragging all of iOS and Android into is just fogs up the thread.

    I still think we are just loudly agreeing
  23. #23  

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    Quote Originally Posted by dsignori View Post
    ... I am just trying to point out that if the question is: "Will Honeycomb tablets sell better and be more popular (in total) than the iPad eventually?" ... This however is a forum, and thread about the XOOM itself and how well the XOOM, itself , will sell over the first 3 months. Dragging all of iOS and Android into is just fogs up the thread.
    We'll have to agree to disagree.

    IMHO, the parallel to last year can not be ignored when talking about how many XOOMs will be sold in the first three months. All these great tabs coming out are going to eat into each other's market share, just like all the great new Android phones ate into each other last year.

    How do you discuss the performance of just one platform in isolation of the rest? It's like trying to describe the motion of one planet without allowing any discussion of the solar system. The individual planet and the larger solar system are so intimately entwined that the discussion of one necessitates mention of the other.

    I'm in for 500K to 1M. I think it will be much closer to 500K than 1M, because, again, we're having a repeat of last year. If all those other great tabs were not in the wings, ready to debut, than my numbers for XOOM would be quite a bit higher. But all those other Tabs ARE out there. They are the 300lb gorilla in the room you apparently want me to completely ignore. The good news is I think this is the game changing turning point for tabs, just like it was a turning point to phones last year.
  24. #24  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Maikai.Guy View Post
    We'll have to agree to disagree.

    IMHO, the parallel to last year can not be ignored when talking about how many XOOMs will be sold in the first three months. All these great tabs coming out are going to eat into each other's market share, just like all the great new Android phones ate into each other last year.

    How do you discuss the performance of just one platform in isolation of the rest? It's like trying to describe the motion of one planet without allowing any discussion of the solar system. The individual planet and the larger solar system are so intimately entwined that the discussion of one necessitates mention of the other.

    I'm in for 500K to 1M. I think it will be much closer to 500K than 1M, because, again, we're having a repeat of last year. If all those other great tabs were not in the wings, ready to debut, than my numbers for XOOM would be quite a bit higher. But all those other Tabs ARE out there. They are the 300lb gorilla in the room you apparently want me to completely ignore. The good news is I think this is the game changing turning point for tabs, just like it was a turning point to phones last year.
    I am sorry you don't seem to accept that we agree, so let me try it this way:

    -You think Honeycomb is far superior to iOS, I think Honeycomb is far superior to iOS
    - You think Honeycomb tablets will end up far outselling the iPad(s) on iOS, I think Honeycomb tablets will end up far outselling the iPad(s) on iOS
    - You think there will be many superior Honeycomb tablets to choose from, I think there will be many superior Honeycomb tablets to choose from.
    - You think the XOOM will be awesome, I think the XOOM will be awesome.

    I am sorry if I agree, but I do

    With that I will cease my responses here since there doesn't appear much more to say of value.
    Thanked by:
  25. #25  

    Default

    Samsung may have distributed 2 million Tabs, I'm betting 1/5 that number or less actually sold. Until android tablet makers beat Apple on price, they are not going to sell big numbers. And until there's a big user base, you're not going to attract development of a lot of top tier applications. Pricing is more important than open source. iPads are a perceived value buy. People don't relate the cost of parts and constuction to the retail price. Android buyers are much more likely to to balk at paying $800 (or $600 or $400) for $250 worth of parts. And with a fraction of the OS development costs that Apple has to recoupe, there's really no excuse.
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