I think the expectation for GS4 is that it is a game changing Android phone that will sell in buckets. However, will it? Let's start with current GSIII owners. Their phone is probably less than a year old. The GS4 is going to look substantially similar from the outside (we suspect) and we know the hardware is plastic. The OS is going to be 4.1 at launch (which the GSIII owners already have). Yes it will be updated to 4.2 quickly, but that should also happen to all GSIII owners. And if GSIII owners believe they won't get the OS update, then isn't the whole Samsung Android line suspect. I mean if you can't even get OS updates within the first year of your phones ownership, how can you continue to make that purchase. So the GSIII is going to remain a very strong phone. So I can't really see a ton of folks trying to get out of their contract or selling used (for $200, lets say) and buying new GSIV for $600. Not when the OS will be largely the same and so will the form factor (though the screen might be a touch bigger).
Now before you say iPhone has the same problem. You are right, but iPhone doesn't rely on last year's customers. They have huge numbers of folks who bought their smartphones two or three years ago who are ready for an upgrade. Does Samsung have those numbers? Samsung sold 94 million in 2011. But not all of those folks are GS high end and not all are going to upgrade only two years later. Android sold 250 million in 2011, but again much of that is not high end and that is also split among many manufacturers.
If I'm right, then Samsung needs to find 80 to 90 million new customers in addition to the ones who bought GSIII last year. That might be very hard to do in the face of the premium form factors of HTC One and Sony Experia which will be running Android (not to mention the other OSes).
I don't think Samsung gets to its 100 million target for this phone unless it cuts price to well below HTC, Sony, Z10, and iPhone. Now we know Samsung can do that (there are advantages to going with a plastic back) but can they do the price cut without looking like they have a failure?
I just think this phone won't be the huge hit GSIII was. Unless it can do more, the other phones seem to have caught up. The Android 5 inch space is just going to be too competitive. iPhone is still strong. And Windows and Z10 are going to be appealing for the crowd that "just wants something different".
Now before you say iPhone has the same problem. You are right, but iPhone doesn't rely on last year's customers. They have huge numbers of folks who bought their smartphones two or three years ago who are ready for an upgrade. Does Samsung have those numbers? Samsung sold 94 million in 2011. But not all of those folks are GS high end and not all are going to upgrade only two years later. Android sold 250 million in 2011, but again much of that is not high end and that is also split among many manufacturers.
If I'm right, then Samsung needs to find 80 to 90 million new customers in addition to the ones who bought GSIII last year. That might be very hard to do in the face of the premium form factors of HTC One and Sony Experia which will be running Android (not to mention the other OSes).
I don't think Samsung gets to its 100 million target for this phone unless it cuts price to well below HTC, Sony, Z10, and iPhone. Now we know Samsung can do that (there are advantages to going with a plastic back) but can they do the price cut without looking like they have a failure?
I just think this phone won't be the huge hit GSIII was. Unless it can do more, the other phones seem to have caught up. The Android 5 inch space is just going to be too competitive. iPhone is still strong. And Windows and Z10 are going to be appealing for the crowd that "just wants something different".