Isn't GS4 by definition dead on arrival?

**JonCBK** · 03-11-2013, 02:02 PM

I think the expectation for GS4 is that it is a game changing Android phone that will sell in buckets. However, will it? Let's start with current GSIII owners. Their phone is probably less than a year old. The GS4 is going to look substantially similar from the outside (we suspect) and we know the hardware is plastic. The OS is going to be 4.1 at launch (which the GSIII owners already have). Yes it will be updated to 4.2 quickly, but that should also happen to all GSIII owners. And if GSIII owners believe they won't get the OS update, then isn't the whole Samsung Android line suspect. I mean if you can't even get OS updates within the first year of your phones ownership, how can you continue to make that purchase. So the GSIII is going to remain a very strong phone. So I can't really see a ton of folks trying to get out of their contract or selling used (for $200, lets say) and buying new GSIV for $600. Not when the OS will be largely the same and so will the form factor (though the screen might be a touch bigger).

Now before you say iPhone has the same problem. You are right, but iPhone doesn't rely on last year's customers. They have huge numbers of folks who bought their smartphones two or three years ago who are ready for an upgrade. Does Samsung have those numbers? Samsung sold 94 million in 2011. But not all of those folks are GS high end and not all are going to upgrade only two years later. Android sold 250 million in 2011, but again much of that is not high end and that is also split among many manufacturers.

If I'm right, then Samsung needs to find 80 to 90 million new customers in addition to the ones who bought GSIII last year. That might be very hard to do in the face of the premium form factors of HTC One and Sony Experia which will be running Android (not to mention the other OSes).

I don't think Samsung gets to its 100 million target for this phone unless it cuts price to well below HTC, Sony, Z10, and iPhone. Now we know Samsung can do that (there are advantages to going with a plastic back) but can they do the price cut without looking like they have a failure?

I just think this phone won't be the huge hit GSIII was. Unless it can do more, the other phones seem to have caught up. The Android 5 inch space is just going to be too competitive. iPhone is still strong. And Windows and Z10 are going to be appealing for the crowd that "just wants something different".

**Lanhoj** · 03-11-2013, 02:08 PM

That's like saying the Nexus 4 was DoA - similar look, minor upgrade in specs (other than quad-core) & both with the same OS version.

N4 definitely wasn't DoA & neither will the S4.

**thebizz** · 03-11-2013, 02:33 PM

I doubt the s4 is DOA honestly I think it will enjoy strings sales simply because of marketing. This phone should launch with 4.2.1. I don't believe they have to change The game they simply have to build on their current success

**Almeuit** · 03-11-2013, 03:47 PM

Originally Posted by Lanhoj

That's like saying the Nexus 4 was DoA - similar look, minor upgrade in specs (other than quad-core) & both with the same OS version.

N4 definitely wasn't DoA & neither will the S4.

Sent from my Sprint S3 using AC forums.

**EvilMonkey** · 03-12-2013, 07:25 AM

Odd how you dismiss all the other phones (like the GSII) that people will be upgrading from. Keep in mind most "normal" US customers are on a 2 year cycle (contract) between upgrades. So there's a whole slew of customers itching for a new phone right about now.

I'm personally content with my GSIII and will probably hold off for the GS5 next year (or whatever the best phone is at that time). But you seem to think GSIII customers are the only market....

**bdmridgback** · 03-12-2013, 10:27 AM

I bought 2 GS3's on release, one out of contract. These two GS3's will go to my parents that are on my plan &
still using HTC EVO 4G and 3D. The wife & I will upgrade to GS4's with our 3 lines that are available April 1st for upgrade.
I have a buddy that is still on a GS2 waiting for the GS4 to release as well.

I think that there are more people out there than you know waiting to upgrade.
These people's friends all have GS3's that love them and these people want the GS4

**ibcop** · 03-12-2013, 11:05 AM

OP, where did you see the S4 was launching with 4.1? And if you are on Verizon, don't expect 4.2 on a S3 anytime soon. Verizon is usually the last to push the updates.

**androidluvr2** · 03-12-2013, 11:12 AM

Originally Posted by JonCBK

So I can't really see a ton of folks trying to get out of their contract or selling used (for $200, lets say) and buying new GSIV for $600.

I don't think that will happen, either. What I think will happen is that people who are eligible for an upgrade will look and see what new phones VZW has and then use their upgrade. The GS4 will be one of the top picks of those who upgrade.

There also will be some new VZW customers who will be eligible for a subsidized phone and the GS4 will be one of the top picks of those new customers.

Ry · 03-12-2013, 11:20 AM

Why does the game need to be changed right now?

**lpt2569** · 03-12-2013, 11:21 AM

Originally Posted by JonCBK

I mean if you can't even get OS updates within the first year of your phones ownership, how can you continue to make that purchase.

My opinion is that most consumers don't care about OS updates, as long as the phone works well when they buy it. And any phone running a version of JB out of the box will work really well for the most part for the life of the phone/contract.

The S4 will do just fine, and we still have NO IDEA what the phone will look like or what new software stuff Samsung will bring to the table. Let's continue this conversation Thursday afternoon.

**JonCBK** · 03-12-2013, 11:22 AM

Hmm, I may have misread the 4.1 launch and that it is 4.2.1 (instead of 4.2.2, which is out and sitting on my Nexus 7, thank you).

I'm just curious if enough advancement in the GS4 will be there to create the huge sales that will be necessary to consider this phone a success. I may be vastly underestimating the number of GS2 users who are ready to upgrade. I'm in the US and I don't see many Androids day to day (among my friends I can only think of one GS3 user, as compared to about a dozen iPhone users, also work does not support Android so there I see exclusively blackberry and iPhone). So for me, GS3 seemed like the first no compromise Android phone. And folks that snapped it up might not be ready to upgrade.

I'm also concerned that the other handsets now make what I would consider to be no compromise phones as well. It seems to me that GS4 will have a lot of competition.

Ry · 03-12-2013, 11:26 AM

Originally Posted by JonCBK

I think the expectation for GS4 is that it is a game changing Android phone that will sell in buckets. However, will it? Let's start with current GSIII owners. Their phone is probably less than a year old. The GS4 is going to look substantially similar from the outside (we suspect) and we know the hardware is plastic. The OS is going to be 4.1 at launch (which the GSIII owners already have). Yes it will be updated to 4.2 quickly, but that should also happen to all GSIII owners. And if GSIII owners believe they won't get the OS update, then isn't the whole Samsung Android line suspect. I mean if you can't even get OS updates within the first year of your phones ownership, how can you continue to make that purchase.

What?

OS updates don't matter to a very significant number of Galaxy S3 owners. All of their apps still work.

(Dear AC, stop changing my lll to a 3)

**androidluvr2** · 03-12-2013, 11:46 AM

Originally Posted by JonCBK

I may be vastly underestimating the number of GS2 users who are ready to upgrade.

I don't think the new purchasers of the GS4 have to be limited to GS2 users. For those interested in an Android phone, the GS4 will be the new flagship. Many of those eligible for an upgrade who are looking for an Android phone will choose it unless they can't afford it.

**androidluvr2** · 03-12-2013, 11:48 AM

Originally Posted by lpt2569

My opinion is that most consumers don't care about OS updates, as long as the phone works well when they buy it.

IME, most consumers of Android phones don't even know what version of the OS their phone currently has. The only people I know who do, post here.

Ry · 03-12-2013, 11:49 AM

Originally Posted by androidluvr2

I don't think the new purchasers of the GS4 have to be limited to GS2 users. For those interested in an Android phone, the GS4 will be the new flagship. Many of those eligible for an upgrade who are looking for an Android phone will chose it unless they can't afford it.

I don't think purchasers of the GS3 were limited to GS1 users either.

**Lanhoj** · 03-12-2013, 11:54 AM

Originally Posted by JonCBK

...
I don't see many Androids day to day (among my friends I can only think of one GS3 user, as compared to about a dozen iPhone users
...

Get new friends

**Workodactyl** · 03-12-2013, 12:31 PM

I think we also have to consider that annual phones are not meant for those who picked up last year's model. Considering even with the suspected specs, the GS4 is a good step above the GS3, however, anyone with a GS3 will have no problem using their phone another year to fulfill their contract obligations and pick up the GS5, which will be a good step above the GS4, like the GS4 is to the GS3. And there in lies my point--most people are on 2-year contracts and will likely not break it to buy this phone (Though some will need to have the latest and greatest and will do just that or buy it out-right, and if so, both the carrier and the manufacturer prosper), and other wills get the GS5 in 2014.

Samsung expects this and so do carriers and probably consumers alike. I hope companies follow Google's philosophy and sell phones retail for $300. This allows the manufacturer to prosper, the carriers to become competitive with pricing and activations, and make consumers happy they're not locked into a contract that makes them go through a buyer's remorse every time a new phones comes out.

That all said, the GS4 will do exactly how Samsung expects it to do, and then some, I imagine.

I guess it's also worth mentioning, due to the tremendous success of the GS3, you'll see a wealth of people leaving other manufacturers for a piece of Samsung's pie. Just a case in point, I'm leaving Moto for the first time to get some Samsung lovin'. Then they will get into this 2-year cycle.

**JonCBK** · 03-12-2013, 12:39 PM

Originally Posted by Ry

What?

OS updates don't matter to a very significant number of Galaxy S3 owners. All of their apps still work.

(Dear AC, stop changing my lll to a 3)

Really? You mean if I buy a flagship Android phone this summer, I should be okay if I'm not eventually running Android 5? That doesn't seem fair.

**JonCBK** · 03-12-2013, 12:45 PM

Originally Posted by Workodactyl

I think we also have to consider that annual phones are not meant for those who picked up last year's model. Considering even with the suspected specs, the GS4 is a good step above the GS3, however, anyone with a GS3 will have no problem using their phone another year to fulfill their contract obligations and pick up the GS5, which will be a good step above the GS4, like the GS4 is to the GS3. And there in lies my point--most people are on 2-year contracts and will likely not break it to buy this phone (Though some will need to have the latest and greatest and will do just that or buy it out-right, and if so, both the carrier and the manufacturer prosper), and other wills get the GS5 in 2014.

Samsung expects this and so do carriers and probably consumers alike. I hope companies follow Google's philosophy and sell phones retail for $300. This allows the manufacturer to prosper, the carriers to become competitive with pricing and activations, and make consumers happy they're not locked into a contract that makes them go through a buyer's remorse every time a new phones comes out.

That all said, the GS4 will do exactly how Samsung expects it to do, and then some, I imagine.

I guess it's also worth mentioning, due to the tremendous success of the GS3, you'll see a wealth of people leaving other manufacturers for a piece of Samsung's pie. Just a case in point, I'm leaving Moto for the first time to get some Samsung lovin'. Then they will get into this 2-year cycle.

Hmm, okay. This was kind of my point that the GS3 owners are the real prize and those folks aren't switching for a Android 4.2 phone even if it has slightly better specs. But I may be underestimation the number of GS2 owners. And I also may be underestimating the respect folks have for Samsung. I know there are folks with older devices ready to make a move. What I wonder about is if they are ready to move to Samsung. That HTC One looks really nice. So does the Sony. And on Nexus you get access to all the updated OS, which I would think of the techies on this site would be the way to go. Missing out on Android 5 would seem a shame as it would probably come out in the middle of your two year contract.

**AlphaVictor87** · 03-12-2013, 12:48 PM

Also what about people that are fed up with their cheaper phones and or even the iPhone. I'm switching from iPhone (had one for the past 4 years) to the S4. I could almost bet i'm not the only one.

Plus as others have said, there are many people out there who will have that money to buy the latest and greatest every year even if their contract isn't up yet.

Ry · 03-12-2013, 12:59 PM

Originally Posted by JonCBK

Really? You mean if I buy a flagship Android phone this summer, I should be okay if I'm not eventually running Android 5? That doesn't seem fair.

For you, it won't seem fair. For most, they won't even know.

You and the ones who care about that are not the majority.

Plus with the OEM's interface, the underlying OS version doesn't matter that much anyway.

**spencerdl** · 03-12-2013, 12:59 PM

Originally Posted by EvilMonkey

Odd how you dismiss all the other phones (like the GSII) that people will be upgrading from. Keep in mind most "normal" US customers are on a 2 year cycle (contract) between upgrades. So there's a whole slew of customers itching for a new phone right about now.

I'm personally content with my GSIII and will probably hold off for the GS5 next year (or whatever the best phone is at that time). But you seem to think GSIII customers are the only market....

EXACTLY what he said........GS3 owners are not the only Android consumers looking for a updated device.

**Workodactyl** · 03-12-2013, 01:34 PM

Yeah, personally, I am not a big fan of the HTC (ever since the thunderbolt debacle), and I love the solid build and simplicity of Motorola's hardware and software, respectively, and would be ready to throw a few bucks at a Nexus 4 or any Nexus that is unlocked, but I'm currently limited to Verizon's service, which doesn't even have the HTC One, any new Moto phone, and no Nexus 4 or unlocked devices. So I guess I either leave Verizon, which currently isn't in the cards, or go with the S4, because what really are my other choices... iPhone? Wow--I feel trapped lol.

DAMN YOU, VERIZON!

**smooth3006** · 03-12-2013, 01:35 PM

who said the s4 would be a "game changer'?

**Golfdriver97** · 03-12-2013, 01:46 PM

Originally Posted by EvilMonkey

Odd how you dismiss all the other phones (like the GSII) that people will be upgrading from. Keep in mind most "normal" US customers are on a 2 year cycle (contract) between upgrades. So there's a whole slew of customers itching for a new phone right about now.

I'm personally content with my GSIII and will probably hold off for the GS5 next year (or whatever the best phone is at that time). But you seem to think GSIII customers are the only market....

The OP doesn't realize that HTC, Moto, LG, and all the other makes are losing marketshare to Samsung. HTC is the next most popular (in the US) at about 10%. So anyone who is leaving HTC, LG, etc are possibly going to shift to Samsung. People are leaving iOS for Android, and just by numbers, possibly going to Samsung. RIMM is about to die if they aren't careful, and still might even if they are.