January is the WORST TIME to release a phone verizon expects to do well.
1) If they announce it early (like other phone releases) they'll kill their holiday sales because of so many people holding off. Yes, some of these are basic plans, but most are not.
2) If they have it as a "surprise" launch, they'll have people returning phones in droves, or calling in to try and get "exception" upgrades.
Either way, it ends up costing Verizon a TON of money.
Not to mention that ATT, with a significantly higher % of their users on smartphones, only made $3 extra data revenue per customer than verizon did in Q1, meaning that while the iphone might generate sales, it doesn't help ARPU as much as some people claim.