Warning: Lots of opinions coming at you...
To me, the issue with RIM is complacency. Blackberry was (and basically still is) synonymous with business. And in its heyday, nothing else could really touch the Blackberry and I think a lot of that trickled down to the average consumer. It seems like RIM never really bothered to go the extra mile in trying to improve things because they didn't really have to.
But now with Apple and Google trying to reinvent the wheel every year or two and a horde of young, tech savvy and content-hungry consumers, RIM's offerings from both a hardware and software perspective come off as archaic and uninteresting. Android is growing by leaps and bounds, and it has a software powerhouse driving that development. Also working in Android's favor is Samsung, HTC, Motorola, etc. cranking out handsets like there's no tomorrow with hardware specs that put anything RIM currently has to offer to shame. In that regard, RIM can't keep up. In some sense, the Torch is proof of that. It was marketed as the the next big thing in the smartphone world. But OS 6, in my opinion, really wasn't all that much of an improvement over OS 5, and the Torch hardware itself was pretty underwhelming and really not any better than what RIM had released before. I don't know if I'd call the Torch a bust, but no one really saw it as being as revolutionary as RIM did. I think that's the point where everyone realized that RIM was in a bind. They were playing catch up for sure, but they're so far behind at this point that I'm not sure they'll ever be able to catch up.
The Blackberry user base is quite enormous, and RIM's upcoming offerings are sure to entice devoted BB users to upgrade, but to me that doesn't translate to new activations and it certainly isn't going to win back those that have converted to iOS and Android. I don't think BB is every really going to go away, but unless RIM does something drastic to turn things around, I see them becoming little more than a niche player in the smartphone market.
I don't know. That's just my two cents. But what do I know? I'm just an idiot in a gas mask who posts on the internet.