UPDATED 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

[Kaenon]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UK)

I ordered an 8GB at 12:05 EST and it will be delivered tomorrow.
I ordered a 16GB at 2:03 EST and it is back ordered.

Damn, b/c my 8GB auction ends tonight and I'd rather just keep that one and cancel the 16GB instead. If it takes 3 weeks +, I'll have to grab another SIM card from T-Mobile and its just getting annoying, the way this whole process has shaken down for the Nexus 4.

 

[limdoug]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

From a customer facing stand point, Google messed this up. They should have gone with a pre-order system so that people who got their orders through wouldn't have assumed they were actually going to get the phone shipped on the 15th like the order status told us.

From a forecasting stand point, 3 weeks is actually amazingly short. If you think about it, how would you have forecasted the demand for this product? It's not like they would be able to take a poll and ask how many people are going to buy this thing. For the US market, I guess I would have broken this thing into chunks of demand.

1) Demand generated from people who were done with their contracts and looking to upgrade. They could have looked at all the people who have gone into the play store with their android phones and then counted forward two years from their first use. All the people who are 2 year eligible would in theory be able to purchase this phone. Of course not all the people who are eligible would buy the phone and some people would willingly break their contracts so that introduces some more variability into your demand right there.

2) Demand generated from people who have never had Android and want to get into the ecosystem. I'd guess they'd need to look at market data and see how many smart phone users there are and how many aren't on Android. They'd need market research data to see what type of turn ratios they see in the typical population. Again, not exact science here.

3) Demand generated from people who have never had a smartphone. They'll need market research data here too.

Those are just three high level chunks that came into my head with a ton of variability in each one. I think to be off on their forecast just by three weeks is actually quite amazing. They probably had hedged with parts suppliers to keep greater safety stock just in case something like this happened. That right there is probably the difference between us getting the phones in 3 weeks vs 3 months.

I'm not really mad at them for the delay, more like pouting like a little kid because I can't get my shiny toy right now, but I at least understand that it's hard to make the right amount of product at the right time. Some of you may argue that they should have just made a billion of these things. Google may not have problems with market cap or working capital, but all the parts suppliers that feed into LG may. We don't have their P&Ls to look at. Another potential issue is somewhere along the line, there was a capacity constraint. Maybe it was the screen, or the screws, or the board, or the flash memory...we just don't have any idea from where we sit. It's easy to sit at our computers and yell, but in a real world supply chain, it's hard to get right. That's one thing that Apple has down that Google may never get to.

Just a rant while I'm waiting out my three weeks...

 

[squadz]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

From a customer facing stand point, Google messed this up. They should have gone with a pre-order system so that people who got their orders through wouldn't have assumed they were actually going to get the phone shipped on the 15th like the order status told us.

From a forecasting stand point, 3 weeks is actually amazingly short. If you think about it, how would you have forecasted the demand for this product? It's not like they would be able to take a poll and ask how many people are going to buy this thing. For the US market, I guess I would have broken this thing into chunks of demand.

1) Demand generated from people who were done with their contracts and looking to upgrade. They could have looked at all the people who have gone into the play store with their android phones and then counted forward two years from their first use. All the people who are 2 year eligible would in theory be able to purchase this phone. Of course not all the people who are eligible would buy the phone and some people would willingly break their contracts so that introduces some more variability into your demand right there.

2) Demand generated from people who have never had Android and want to get into the ecosystem. I'd guess they'd need to look at market data and see how many smart phone users there are and how many aren't on Android. They'd need market research data to see what type of turn ratios they see in the typical population. Again, not exact science here.

3) Demand generated from people who have never had a smartphone. They'll need market research data here too.

Those are just three high level chunks that came into my head with a ton of variability in each one. I think to be off on their forecast just by three weeks is actually quite amazing. They probably had hedged with parts suppliers to keep greater safety stock just in case something like this happened. That right there is probably the difference between us getting the phones in 3 weeks vs 3 months.

I'm not really mad at them for the delay, more like pouting like a little kid because I can't get my shiny toy right now, but I at least understand that it's hard to make the right amount of product at the right time. Some of you may argue that they should have just made a billion of these things. Google may not have problems with market cap or working capital, but all the parts suppliers that feed into LG may. We don't have their P&Ls to look at. Another potential issue is somewhere along the line, there was a capacity constraint. Maybe it was the screen, or the screws, or the board, or the flash memory...we just don't have any idea from where we sit. It's easy to sit at our computers and yell, but in a real world supply chain, it's hard to get right. That's one thing that Apple has down that Google may never get to.

Just a rant while I'm waiting out my three weeks...

Yeah, cause you know, there definitely wasn't a signup option available on their page where they could gauge by the number of subscribers.

Google, the company that offers analytics, can't estimate the demand for a product?

People need to stop cutting Google slack on this one. There is simply no way a company of its caliber should have royally effed this launch up. No excuses, nothing.

 

[AlternetConcept]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

Got the back order message. Confirmation email came in 12:34pm EST. I think I got mine off a system error. Not sure to cancel or not.

 

[limdoug]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

Yeah, cause you know, there definitely wasn't a signup option available on their page where they could gauge by the number of subscribers.

Google, the company that offers analytics, can't estimate the demand for a product?

People need to stop cutting Google slack on this one. There is simply no way a company of its caliber should have royally effed this launch up. No excuses, nothing.

I'm saying that they did estimate it and I think they did a pretty good job of it. Do you really think there's a company in the world that could estimate it so well that everyone gets what they want? That's impossible. I'm guessing they used the signup option as an input into their forecast. That being said, I didn't sign up for it and I know a host of people didn't either. Even if they got the demand right, do you think they can just snap their fingers and everything would be made? It's not like LG is the biggest company in the world where they can make every single thing. I'm guessing they outsource supplies and that's another point of variation.

I guess I'm trying to say that if you don't have a supply chain background, it's easy to just assume that things should be perfect. Just trying to give a little perspective from a guy with supply chain experience.

World class organizations like Apple end up with backorders too.

 

[woodbane]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

And i m reading here on Android Central and on XDA, and the response is the same. People who ordered more then 1 phone are getting a back order - as far as it goes for the US.
people who ordered 1 are getting the phones on time.

and refunding the shipping for that. I give a damn about the shipping. i will pay another 50$ just get my phones over here.

NOPE! I only order one 16GB N4, no bumper and I got the backorderd email - even though it still says estimated shipping today in the Play Store.

 

[squadz]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

I'm saying that they did estimate it and I think they did a pretty good job of it. Do you really think there's a company in the world that could estimate it so well that everyone gets what they want? That's impossible. I'm guessing they used the signup option as an input into their forecast. Even if they got the demand right, do you think they can just snap their fingers and everything would be made? It's not like LG is the biggest company in the world where they can make every single thing. I'm guessing they outsource supplies and that's another point of variation.

I guess I'm trying to say that if you don't have a supply chain background, it's easy to just assume that things should be perfect. Just trying to give a little perspective from a guy with supply chain experience.

World class organizations like Apple end up with backorders too.

I understand that. So lets say they did get the demand right, but they didn't have the product to back the demand up, why would they leave the order option open past the product supply they have? ie. why take 10,000 orders when they have only 5,000 units? People were able to order all day, even as late as 6 PM. They did this on purpose.

Edit: Also, they didn't do a good job at estimating at all. A simple look at the people waiting for their devices vs the people who got their devices is a very, very huge difference.

 

[theduder]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

Just finished talking to a Google Wallet customer rep. She was BSing me she didn't knew about the back orders. 5 minutes later she say her "manager" told her that Google guarantees the order to get in 3 week.

I guess she is new as a customer rep(CR), she had a mouth slip.
CR: said that my order got backordered because i ordered few devices.
ME: "excuse me?". How about sending me 1 device at a time?
CR: We cannot send you 1 device at a time. you will have to wait until we ship the whole order.
ME: What is the guarantee I will get my phone in 3 weeks? esp after i call the same day to make sure I am guarantee to get the phones in 5 days.
CR: you might get your phones earlier then that. 3 weeks is max

And i m reading here on Android Central and on XDA, and the response is the same. People who ordered more then 1 phone are getting a back order - as far as it goes for the US.
people who ordered 1 are getting the phones on time.

and refunding the shipping for that. I give a damn about the shipping. i will pay another 50$ just get my phones over here.

I ordered only one phone and I am backordered.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

 

[limdoug]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

I understand that. So lets say they did get the demand right, but they didn't have the product to back the demand up, why would they leave the order option open past the product supply they have? ie. why take 10,000 orders when they have only 5,000 units? People were able to order all day, even as late as 6 PM. They did this on purpose.

Edit: Also, they didn't do a good job at estimating at all. A simple look at the people waiting for their devices vs the people who got their devices is a very, very huge difference.

I totally agree with you that they messed up the customer facing aspect of it. I said it in my original post.

The demand estimating part, I don't think you can say they were that off. Let's say they got 1 million orders, but forecasted 950k. That's a variance of only 5%. Are you saying that's bad?

All we see in the forums are the people who are angry. That's the way it usually works...angry people make noise. Happy people just lay low.

 

[theduder]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

Yeah, cause you know, there definitely wasn't a signup option available on their page where they could gauge by the number of subscribers.

Google, the company that offers analytics, can't estimate the demand for a product?

People need to stop cutting Google slack on this one. There is simply no way a company of its caliber should have royally effed this launch up. No excuses, nothing.

I agree. No mercy. This is the second major screw up in mere months. They did it differently this time and still failed. Sometimes being smart isn't enough and you have to know what you're doing too. Two failed launches says they don't.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

 

[maverick96]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

I ordered at 10:43 Central time and I have not gotten any back order email. At least not yet. Mine still says that it's set to ship today.

 

[qreepii]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

I totally agree with you that they messed up the customer facing aspect of it. I said it in my original post.

The demand estimating part, I don't think you can say they were that off. Let's say they got 1 million orders, but forecasted 950k. That's a variance of only 5%. Are you saying that's bad?

All we see in the forums are the people who are angry. That's the way it usually works...angry people make noise. Happy people just lay low.

Sorry bro but whatever forecasting they did have was terribly inaccurate. The phone sold out in less than 20 minutes when the site was crashing so hard that it continued to accept orders for hours when there was no stock. They had to hard set the page to the current sold out to stop the flood of refreshers getting additional orders in that google couldn't cover.

When a product sells out in minutes in a national launch the forecasting was wholly inadequate.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Android Central Forums

 

[anon(847090)]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

Really? Why would you complain that there isn't a backorder? That is odd to me

because it gets you a unit when the next batch of shipment is ready for dispatch.
when the next time it opens it will be all over like the way it happened two days ago and there is a great possibility that it will soldout again and you might miss it.

At least now I will get it in less than 3 weeks.

 

[gone down south]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

The site was crashing because all y'all had scripts pinging it every second on top of thousands of people hitting F5 in a dozen brower windows.

 

[meringues]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

I ordered at 10:43 Central time and I have not gotten any back order email. At least not yet. Mine still says that it's set to ship today.

11:52 Eastern. Radio silence. 16GB + Bumper.

 

[futureandroider]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

The back orders take priority correct? So the next shipment basically goes to all the back orders and what is left over (if there is even any) will be sold through Play? So there is a slight possibility...that we have to wait until shipment three until a full stock launch again?

 

[Sweet Pikake]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

I totally agree with you that they messed up the customer facing aspect of it. I said it in my original post.

The demand estimating part, I don't think you can say they were that off. Let's say they got 1 million orders, but forecasted 950k. That's a variance of only 5%. Are you saying that's bad?

All we see in the forums are the people who are angry. That's the way it usually works...angry people make noise. Happy people just lay low.

Ltes just
Lets just say an EMPTY BARREL MAKES A LOT OF NOISE. My point is, with the NOTIFY ME sign on their web, if 100 thousand signed, couldn't have they just added 25% to cover the no signed up people? 100 thou is too small amount, only example.

 

[qreepii]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

Well guess ill wait til January's. When ever the next actual stock hits Google play I'm sure I won't be available how many free for alls will it take until we can actually order the dammed thing?

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Android Central Forums

 

[limdoug]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UKand US now)

Ltes just
Lets just say an EMPTY BARREL MAKES A LOT OF NOISE. My point is, with the NOTIFY ME sign on their web, if 100 thousand signed, couldn't have they just added 25% to cover the no signed up people? 100 thou is too small amount, only example.

What if they did put 25%? Or what if they put 50%? Or 100% more? There's no way to know if they did or didn't do that. I'm just telling you guys, it's very very difficult to forecast for new item launches.

 

[jimjamesjimmie]

Re: 'within' 3 weeks till the next shipments of nexus 4 (email inside) (UK)

So you sold your 8gb on eBay? Have a nice life with that extra $20 you made after all that hard work.

And it's within 3 weeks, not 3 weeks. Chill out.

I ordered an 8GB at 12:05 EST and it will be delivered tomorrow.
I ordered a 16GB at 2:03 EST and it is back ordered.

Damn, b/c my 8GB auction ends tonight and I'd rather just keep that one and cancel the 16GB instead. If it takes 3 weeks +, I'll have to grab another SIM card from T-Mobile and its just getting annoying, the way this whole process has shaken down for the Nexus 4.