Pixel 3XL Conspiracy - Devil's Advocate

[Guto Aaron]

OK, so I'm pretty sure everyone has heard, and quickly dismissed, the Pixel 3XL conspiracy theory that seems to have peaked this week. (If you haven't, the basic premise is that the big notch phone that's been leaked everywhere is a marketing ploy fake-out, and Google are going to shock us all by releasing an all screen phone). Whilst I never say never, it seems nearly impossible for any company to really keep a secret phone under wraps these days so it's fair to say the conspiracy theory is VERY unlikely.

However, let's play devil's advocate. I'm going to approach this as if the rumour was real. Come and prove me wrong

So, here's my devil's advocate defence:

1. Whilst Google is as likely as any other companies to get things wrong, they've managed to get quite a few things wrong in the design of the leaked Pixel 3XL. Do we really believe that they thought people would love:

• Giant notch coupled with giant bottom bezel
• Single camera on back but 2 on the front?
• 4gb of RAM
• Smaller battery than previous XLs

Surely any designer could see that all of those features lumped together was asking for trouble? But if you were trying to come up with a fake phone design that would get bad press, without being so bad people immediately call your bluff, wouldn't all of those fit perfectly?

2. According to one of the two YouTubers pushing the theory, a few very popular tech YouTubers are in on the joke, having signed NDAs. They name Marques as one. It's notable that Marques has been very quite about Pixel 3XL leaks recently, and when Google announced their events, his only tweet was something like "Google event. Surprise us ) Another notable tech Youtuber claimed that the Pixel launch event was the one event he was most excited about.

3. Most of these leaks have come from a batch of 120 Pixel 3XLs stolen by an Ukranian and sold in London for USD2,000. And yet, with 120 devices out there, all we've had are one or two Russian sites and a couple of Russian bloggers posting unboxing videos. Most of them don't even show the device going further than the home screen - with 1 delving into settings. What happened to the other 117 or so phones? Did people buy them and then just not tell anyone? Whilst mainstream sites may not want to incur the wrath of Google, plenty of independent bloggers could easily afford 2k.

4. Talking about the wrath of Google, where is it? The leak videos are still on YouTube, Google have made no attempts to take them down. There's no news of a police investigation like we had when a pre-release iPhone 4 was stolen. In fact, not one major US news network seems to have reported on the theft at all.

5. As for the video that re-started all this, the YouTuber claims that he received an email for Google asking to use a very specific section of one of his videos to show during the launch event and on YouTube's front page on the day and possibly during the days leading up to it. The clip is of him insulting the notch. If he's not lying (he could be, but he's been around for a few years now so it would be a major gamble to make something this big up) then there's no other explanation for Google wanting that. No-way would they show a video of their phone being ridiculed during their launch, not even for a "for these people, there's the Pixel 3" type post, that would be marketing suicide.

6. Last year, with Android O, Google made a mistake and included an animation featuring a cartoon of a pre-launch Pixel 2XL. They changed it quickly once people spotted it, but the leak was out. In Android P, the same setting had an animation of a phone that was virtually bezel-less and was certainly notch-less. They wouldn't make the same mistake twice, and they haven't pulled this version, so what if it's a breadcrumb for the real phone? If it's just a generic phone, why pick a notch-less design that would make their own phone look bad? Why not just keep a Pixel 2XL image?

So, what could they possibly have built to deserve this unprecedented marketing campaign? Well, how about that near bezel-less phone shown in the settings? Ah, but that's not possible I hear you say!

• If LG had a screen capable of this, they would surely use it in their own phones before letting Google use it right? Well remember that Google invested USD1bn in LG's screen tech, that's the kind of money that can come with a "first dibs" clause.
• Where's the camera? Well, imagine a screen with a small hole in the side of the notification bar. On the display, there's a small camera around the hole so you don't realise it until you look closely enough
• But what about the speakers? Google quietly bought Redux in August last year. Redux was a company who had invented tech that could make a screen act as a speaker, with no need for actual speakers.

So good people - come and debunk!

 

[Nauga]

You forgot to consider Google's ties (through Larry Page, for sure, and probably Eric Schmidt t'boot) to the Illuminati. I mean, C'mon. Flying cars?

 

[Guto Aaron]

You forgot to consider Google's ties (through Larry Page, for sure, and probably Eric Schmidt t'boot) to the Illuminati. I mean, C'mon. Flying cars?

I took it as granted that everyone knew that not only is the Earth flat, but it was Google that made it flat.

However, I was hoping to see someone take a proper shot at debunking it - much more fun!

 

[Mike Dee]

OK, so I'm pretty sure everyone has heard, and quickly dismissed, the Pixel 3XL conspiracy theory that seems to have peaked this week. (If you haven't, the basic premise is that the big notch phone that's been leaked everywhere is a marketing ploy fake-out, and Google are going to shock us all by releasing an all screen phone). Whilst I never say never, it seems nearly impossible for any company to really keep a secret phone under wraps these days so it's fair to say the conspiracy theory is VERY unlikely.

However, let's play devil's advocate. I'm going to approach this as if the rumour was real. Come and prove me wrong

So, here's my devil's advocate defence:

1. Whilst Google is as likely as any other companies to get things wrong, they've managed to get quite a few things wrong in the design of the leaked Pixel 3XL. Do we really believe that they thought people would love:

• Giant notch coupled with giant bottom bezel
• Single camera on back but 2 on the front?
• 4gb of RAM
• Smaller battery than previous XLs

Surely any designer could see that all of those features lumped together was asking for trouble? But if you were trying to come up with a fake phone design that would get bad press, without being so bad people immediately call your bluff, wouldn't all of those fit perfectly?

2. According to one of the two YouTubers pushing the theory, a few very popular tech YouTubers are in on the joke, having signed NDAs. They name Marques as one. It's notable that Marques has been very quite about Pixel 3XL leaks recently, and when Google announced their events, his only tweet was something like "Google event. Surprise us ) Another notable tech Youtuber claimed that the Pixel launch event was the one event he was most excited about.

3. Most of these leaks have come from a batch of 120 Pixel 3XLs stolen by an Ukranian and sold in London for USD2,000. And yet, with 120 devices out there, all we've had are one or two Russian sites and a couple of Russian bloggers posting unboxing videos. Most of them don't even show the device going further than the home screen - with 1 delving into settings. What happened to the other 117 or so phones? Did people buy them and then just not tell anyone? Whilst mainstream sites may not want to incur the wrath of Google, plenty of independent bloggers could easily afford 2k.

4. Talking about the wrath of Google, where is it? The leak videos are still on YouTube, Google have made no attempts to take them down. There's no news of a police investigation like we had when a pre-release iPhone 4 was stolen. In fact, not one major US news network seems to have reported on the theft at all.

5. As for the video that re-started all this, the YouTuber claims that he received an email for Google asking to use a very specific section of one of his videos to show during the launch event and on YouTube's front page on the day and possibly during the days leading up to it. The clip is of him insulting the notch. If he's not lying (he could be, but he's been around for a few years now so it would be a major gamble to make something this big up) then there's no other explanation for Google wanting that. No-way would they show a video of their phone being ridiculed during their launch, not even for a "for these people, there's the Pixel 3" type post, that would be marketing suicide.

6. Last year, with Android O, Google made a mistake and included an animation featuring a cartoon of a pre-launch Pixel 2XL. They changed it quickly once people spotted it, but the leak was out. In Android P, the same setting had an animation of a phone that was virtually bezel-less and was certainly notch-less. They wouldn't make the same mistake twice, and they haven't pulled this version, so what if it's a breadcrumb for the real phone? If it's just a generic phone, why pick a notch-less design that would make their own phone look bad? Why not just keep a Pixel 2XL image?

So, what could they possibly have built to deserve this unprecedented marketing campaign? Well, how about that near bezel-less phone shown in the settings? Ah, but that's not possible I hear you say!

• If LG had a screen capable of this, they would surely use it in their own phones before letting Google use it right? Well remember that Google invested USD1bn in LG's screen tech, that's the kind of money that can come with a "first dibs" clause.
• Where's the camera? Well, imagine a screen with a small hole in the side of the notification bar. On the display, there's a small camera around the hole so you don't realise it until you look closely enough
• But what about the speakers? Google quietly bought Redux in August last year. Redux was a company who had invented tech that could make a screen act as a speaker, with no need for actual speakers.

So good people - come and debunk!

Not buying it and not a smart decision at all if it were true.

 

[Jeremy8000]

If it were to be true, I could imagine evolution of the notch to be small cutouts within the screen wherein cameras, etc, are housed, providing greater screen:body ratio with less intrusion.

Here's another conspiracy conspiracy theory: a competitor of Google is behind the promotion of the idea that Google is going to launch a better than leaked device, to the effect that when it fails to actually do so the perceived poor design becomes that much more unpalatable.

 

[Morty2264]

Hmm, I guess you never know! I do agree with you that it would be quite difficult to keep a phone (especially a flagship from Google) under wraps for so long - especially so close to its release - so there is that. But hey, if anyone could pull off that kind of secret-phone-business thing, it's Google!

 

[Guto Aaron]

Here's another conspiracy conspiracy theory: a competitor of Google is behind the promotion of the idea that Google is going to launch a better than leaked device, to the effect that when it fails to actually do so the perceived poor design becomes that much more unpalatable.

Now that's a great one, a double conspiracy! Because let's be honest, if, as we assume, there's no super secret impossible phone then Google must be HATING the current rumours. It means that any fan disappointed when they first saw the leaks will be disappointed all over again on launch day!

 

[Guto Aaron]

Hmm, I guess you never know! I do agree with you that it would be quite difficult to keep a phone (especially a flagship from Google) under wraps for so long - especially so close to its release - so there is that. But hey, if anyone could pull off that kind of secret-phone-business thing, it's Google!

It would be an incredible feat (probably an impossible one though), one that would be remembered in tech and PR circles for a long time. And yes, internally Google are quite good at keeping things quiet (for example, there's no clear leaks on the Pixelbooks, the Pixel stand, any Smart Display or anything else they may be launching on October 9th) - but every modern phone leaks...doesn't it

 

[Morty2264]

It would be an incredible feat (probably an impossible one though), one that would be remembered in tech and PR circles for a long time. And yes, internally Google are quite good at keeping things quiet (for example, there's no clear leaks on the Pixelbooks, the Pixel stand, any Smart Display or anything else they may be launching on October 9th) - but every modern phone leaks...doesn't it

You're right, Google *does* have experience with keeping things quiet... I guess only time will tell!

 

[vzwuser76]

While the theory does seem implausible, the things I can't reconcile are Google wanting negative reviews from YouTubers, and the "stolen" shipment of Pixel 3XLs.
On the first part, what possible reason would you have to want negative reviews for a promo regarding a product you're debuting. That makes zero sense to me. Unless it's internal and they're going to make the design team watch it on a loop for a month or two.
On the second part, a couple things. First, doesn't it seem odd that they'd be shipping devices this early, when history has shown that most times in non-US countries Pixels aren't available for weeks to months. Second, why we're there no regular Pixel 3s in that shipment? If they're going to a retailer or a mobile carrier, wouldn't they have some of each model?
Like I said, while it might seem implausible on it's face, IF they are pulling a rope-a-dope on us, with something really spectacular, it might be one of the greatest marketing coups in history, and something hard for any other company to respond to since everyone else will have already released their wares for the year. Take Apple for example. It sounds like their whole line will mirror the iPhone X design wise. Currently, they see the leaks for the Pixel and don't see anything to worry about. Then after they've released their products, Google comes along with something no one sees coming, whether full edge to edge display phone with no pop-up camera or maybe something else entirely. Now the focus that should've been on Apple's products for the next few months is aimed squarely on Google. If it were a fully edge to edge design, Apple's products that only a year before were leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else looks like yesterday's news. Again, it seems implausible, but..who knows?

 

[Mr Segundus]

There's no way the Pixel 3 XL will have no notch. Jerry Hildenbrand had an article on AC saying the conspiracy theory stuff with the Pixel 3 XL is all BS and I agree with him.

 

[edison2012]

Don't know if it's a scam or not, but all this conspiracy theory might be a ploy to keep those considering the latest Samsung phones or the upcoming Apple phones on the fence a little longer waiting for Google's release. Every Samsung or Apple phone sold is one less potential buyer for Google. Still, this would only affect the tiny tech savvy segment as the masses will have never heard about the controversy.

 

[dov1978]

I honestly think Google reckon they're just like Apple and that they can produce a device that everyone hates the look of at first but will grow to love and think the opposite shortly after. They have that same arrogance but they'll never pull it off like Apple do..

I'm secretly hoping they've bluffed everyone and have a notch less phone waiting in the wings but let's be honest.... It's Google

 

[J Dubbs]

I have to say, I don't think even Google would be foolish/arrogant enough to release a phone with a notch that ridiculously huge, they've done their research. They know a phones aesthetics are very important to sales. And that huge notch will definitely hurt viewing things in landscape mode.

I've also noticed though owning a pixel without a notch running pie, that they've left no option in pie to adust for a notchless phone, so you have a big gap at the top of the screen where a notch would be. Why would they set up pie that way if they had their very own notchless phone coming out? Things that make you go hmmm?

 

[Mike Dee]

There's no way the Pixel 3 XL will have no notch. Jerry Hildenbrand had an article on AC saying the conspiracy theory stuff with the Pixel 3 XL is all BS and I agree with him.

This whole conspiracy theory is just wishfull thinking. There will be a notch. You can bank on it.

 

[I Can Be Your Hero]

Ok I'll give it a shot:

OK, so I'm pretty sure everyone has heard, and quickly dismissed, the Pixel 3XL conspiracy theory that seems to have peaked this week. (If you haven't, the basic premise is that the big notch phone that's been leaked everywhere is a marketing ploy fake-out, and Google are going to shock us all by releasing an all screen phone). Whilst I never say never, it seems nearly impossible for any company to really keep a secret phone under wraps these days so it's fair to say the conspiracy theory is VERY unlikely.

However, let's play devil's advocate. I'm going to approach this as if the rumour was real. Come and prove me wrong

So, here's my devil's advocate defence:

1. Whilst Google is as likely as any other companies to get things wrong, they've managed to get quite a few things wrong in the design of the leaked Pixel 3XL. Do we really believe that they thought people would love:

• Giant notch coupled with giant bottom bezel
• Single camera on back but 2 on the front?
• 4gb of RAM
• Smaller battery than previous XLs

Yes, and that's what concerns me. I believe that Google think an enormous notch and large bottom bezel like that is fine, that having more cameras on the front is better than having them on the back, that limiting or reducing the ram/battery is fine and won't have any adverse effects despite clear indications that phones benefit with more ram/battery.

I think Google are just doing whatever they want. I thought at first that they were just oblivious to what type of phone specs their fans would want to be on the phone, but then when it was revealed that the phone is going to have dual front facing cameras for 'super selfies' and still have only one rear camera - it clicked to me. This phone isn't for me. It's designed to attract the selfie takers, the instragram posters, the ones who don't care about specs at all and just want to take a good selfie picture.

That's fine, they can build whatever phone they want, but that's clearly the target market imo, but that market doesn't include me.

Surely any designer could see that all of those features lumped together was asking for trouble? But if you were trying to come up with a fake phone design that would get bad press, without being so bad people immediately call your bluff, wouldn't all of those fit perfectly?

I agree that from a design standpoint, all the points you mentioned leave a very confusing mess of a phone. But a fake phone theory is just not reasonable at all. First off, the big notch big bezel 4gb ram, small battery Pixel 3 XL does exist. We've seen multiple leaked photos and unboxing videos of it. The device was manufactured and has been spotted out in the real world.

Second, if there was this mysterious third device, it would have to be tested out in the real world to ensure network compatibility. This means, that a test version of the device must be presented to the FCC and other regulatory departments around the world for the phone to go through testing to ensure it's fit for sale to consumers. You can't fake it by sending a dummy phone to regulatory agencies for testing, then release another phone - that's just asking for the device to be pulled off the market and for penalties and and heavy fines by the regulatory bodies for misleading them.

Third, EVERYTHING leaks. It'd be near impossible for Google to have the real Pixel 3 XL design completely avoid any leaks whatsoever. No semi-popular phone has avoided being leaked, Google don't have some sort of special control over leaks.

2. According to one of the two YouTubers pushing the theory, a few very popular tech YouTubers are in on the joke, having signed NDAs. They name Marques as one. It's notable that Marques has been very quite about Pixel 3XL leaks recently, and when Google announced their events, his only tweet was something like "Google event. Surprise us ) Another notable tech Youtuber claimed that the Pixel launch event was the one event he was most excited about.

All hearsay with nothing really backing this up. People saying 'surprise us' and being excited about an event doesn't mean anything, certainly doesn't suggest a different phone.

3. Most of these leaks have come from a batch of 120 Pixel 3XLs stolen by an Ukranian and sold in London for USD2,000. And yet, with 120 devices out there, all we've had are one or two Russian sites and a couple of Russian bloggers posting unboxing videos. Most of them don't even show the device going further than the home screen - with 1 delving into settings. What happened to the other 117 or so phones? Did people buy them and then just not tell anyone? Whilst mainstream sites may not want to incur the wrath of Google, plenty of independent bloggers could easily afford 2k.

Well it's stolen property, so maybe others fear revealing themselves to own stolen property. They might want to keep a low profile and not flaunt it around the internet.

Still though, what's the alternative? That Google manufactured 120 'fake' Pixel 3 XL's (why? because they want to waste money), went on Telegram and contacted people to sell them. Some Russian bloggers bought it and posted about it and Google are happy with that approach?

Imagine if this is all a big dupe and Google really do have a secret Pixel 3 XL phone - then that means that Google themselves faked stolen phones, sold them on the black market (phones by the way that haven't been approved for sale or use in any country), used Telegram to sell the phones using very broken English and all of this was to hide the real Pixel 3 XL, where they could have instead not done that and just......hide the real Pixel 3 XL. I mean they've done a fantastic job of hiding it, if this is all fake, why bother with all the other stuff?

4. Talking about the wrath of Google, where is it? The leak videos are still on YouTube, Google have made no attempts to take them down. There's no news of a police investigation like we had when a pre-release iPhone 4 was stolen. In fact, not one major US news network seems to have reported on the theft at all.

Not much Google can do now as far as taking down all the leaked Pixel 3 XL content online - it's out there now. Putting time and effort to try to take all this stuff down is probably not worth the time and effort. They might be wanting to prosecute those responsible for stealing the phones and selling them on the black market though. Up to them.

5. As for the video that re-started all this, the YouTuber claims that he received an email for Google asking to use a very specific section of one of his videos to show during the launch event and on YouTube's front page on the day and possibly during the days leading up to it. The clip is of him insulting the notch. If he's not lying (he could be, but he's been around for a few years now so it would be a major gamble to make something this big up) then there's no other explanation for Google wanting that. No-way would they show a video of their phone being ridiculed during their launch, not even for a "for these people, there's the Pixel 3" type post, that would be marketing suicide.

We're not sure if or what those clips will be used for (if at all). And I don't think it's unreasonable to think Google may have a laugh at it and show all the insane online comments and personalities losing their minds over the notch and laugh at the overreaction. And then yeah, they might say something along the lines of if the notch is that troubling, then the Pixel 3 exists. Not sure why that would be marketing suicide.

6. Last year, with Android O, Google made a mistake and included an animation featuring a cartoon of a pre-launch Pixel 2XL. They changed it quickly once people spotted it, but the leak was out. In Android P, the same setting had an animation of a phone that was virtually bezel-less and was certainly notch-less. They wouldn't make the same mistake twice, and they haven't pulled this version, so what if it's a breadcrumb for the real phone? If it's just a generic phone, why pick a notch-less design that would make their own phone look bad? Why not just keep a Pixel 2XL image?

Could be so they don't have to change that animation every time Google makes a new phone. One that looks like the Pixel 2 XL, then one with a notch for the 3 XL, then whatever the 4 XL will be etc.

A generic phone design means it can be reused over and over again.

So, what could they possibly have built to deserve this unprecedented marketing campaign? Well, how about that near bezel-less phone shown in the settings? Ah, but that's not possible I hear you say!

• If LG had a screen capable of this, they would surely use it in their own phones before letting Google use it right? Well remember that Google invested USD1bn in LG's screen tech, that's the kind of money that can come with a "first dibs" clause.
• Where's the camera? Well, imagine a screen with a small hole in the side of the notification bar. On the display, there's a small camera around the hole so you don't realise it until you look closely enough
• But what about the speakers? Google quietly bought Redux in August last year. Redux was a company who had invented tech that could make a screen act as a speaker, with no need for actual speakers.

So good people - come and debunk!

Yeah, not buying any of this. I think Google would be more inclined to have a giant notch so they can put in super instagram selfies rather than having a near bezeless display.

There's not been one compelling piece of evidence for this secret Pixel 3 XL.

 

[Mr Segundus]

This whole conspiracy theory is just wishfull thinking. There will be a notch. You can bank on it.

Indeed.

 

[Mr Segundus]

And that huge notch will definitely hurt viewing things in landscape mode.

Apple didn't care about that last year when they came out with the iPhone X. In fact, they'll be embracing the notch on all new phones they'll unveil today.

 

[ssallen]

I honestly think Google reckon they're just like Apple and that they can produce a device that everyone hates the look of at first but will grow to love and think the opposite shortly after. They have that same arrogance but they'll never pull it off like Apple do..

I'm secretly hoping they've bluffed everyone and have a notch less phone waiting in the wings but let's be honest.... It's Google

What are you talking about? The Pixel 1 was called "frumpy" by every tech site and the users still love it. More-so with the Pixel 2. The problem is that every minor issue is turned into outrage before anyone even has the device in their hands. Google doesn't need to sell millions of Pixels to be successful and their target audience cares more about functionality then form. Even if the "ugly duckling" notch is real the Pixel phones will sell just fine. At least Google, despite a swing and a miss on aesthetics, DID try to make their phone look unique. No one will mistake it for an iPhone or Samsung.

 

[Itsa_Me_Mario]

I also do not believe the conspiracy theory.