Wednesday Update: 5 full days (122 hours so far) and battery is at 39%. However, I can't really count yesterday as I wore a nice automatic watch all day since I was in a suit for meetings and a dinner, so the watch sat at home in airplane mode all day. The Toq still kept perfect time and didn't use a single percentage of battery while in airplane mode for 24 hours, which is pretty cool itself. Also I should mention that when I go to bed each night I've been putting the Toq in airplane mode and then turning airplane mode off when I put it on again in the morning, so there's been 6 hours each day when the Toq has been idle. I consider this to be my normal usage pattern since I don't want to put it on in the morning and have a ton of twitter notifications stacked up on it, there's no point.
So based on my usage pattern it looks like I should get over 6 days out of a single charge on the Toq. The batter drain has been very linear so far (if you discount yesterday's "airplane mode day").