S4 Sales Lower Than Expected

[jokout1]

Well, the article states "sales doubled to 1.2 million in May", If you do a little math and figure back to release day the 5 million number doesn't hold water!
Let's all back up a bit here and remember all of these articles are loosely based on truth, and more on speculation! If you dig down a bit, it really turns out that one investment analyst wrote a white paper on what he THOUGHT future S4 sales would be and several investment houses jumped on the bandwagon forcing the sell off of Samsung stock! This isn't anything different then Apple resently...Wall street loves to build up a companies stock value then knock it down, taking profit at every turn! In all likelyhood, this is more about Wall street taking profit then what is or may happen!

Cheers

 

[jwn66]

It's my fault, as soon as I switch brands, (came from a BB) whatever I touch dies a slow death, lul, sry guys :-\

jk jk

 

[Aquila]

I don't care how you spin it, taking a 5% hit to your valuation in one morning is not a good thing. I don't think Sammy's in trouble, but the silence on this today was pretty deafening. It brings up a good point... if Sammy is coming in way under forecasts and HTC is coming way under, what are people buying? Or are they waiting for something? I can't imagine it's all held breath for the 32GB S4's and Verizon Ones. The US is only about 10% of global smartphone users, so that doesn't explain the drop. Is this really just the product of over exaggeration or is something wrong?

 

[JHBThree]

Well, the article states "sales doubled to 1.2 million in May", If you do a little math and figure back to release day the 5 million number doesn't hold water!
Let's all back up a bit here and remember all of these articles are loosely based on truth, and more on speculation! If you dig down a bit, it really turns out that one investment analyst wrote a white paper on what he THOUGHT future S4 sales would be and several investment houses jumped on the bandwagon forcing the sell off of Samsung stock! This isn't anything different then Apple resently...Wall street loves to build up a companies stock value then knock it down, taking profit at every turn! In all likelyhood, this is more about Wall street taking profit then what is or may happen!

Cheers

The article is based on an analysts guess. Since we have two numbers, one of which came from an HTC exec, the numbers coming from the analyst need to be ignored.

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[JHBThree]

I don't care how you spin it, taking a 5% hit to your valuation in one morning is not a good thing. I don't think Sammy's in trouble, but the silence on this today was pretty deafening. It brings up a good point... if Sammy is coming in way under forecasts and HTC is coming way under, what are people buying? Or are they waiting for something? I can't imagine it's all held breath for the 32GB S4's and Verizon Ones. The US is only about 10% of global smartphone users, so that doesn't explain the drop. Is this really just the product of over exaggeration or is something wrong?

It could just be that its not selling as well as they thought it would. Despite their marketing, no device can overcome the taint of lukewarm reviews and word of mouth, which the S4 had in droves. The S4 is selling mind you, nust not as quickly as they thought it would. In the Ones case the numbers the analysts are giving are just too low to be plausible.

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[dave25A]

From what i've been hearing more and more people seem to be leaving iPhone and getting the Samsung Galaxy S4. According to Carphone Warehouse here in the UK, around 30% of people switching to the S4 are people who have defected from an iPhone. So my logic would be, if more people are leaving iPhone = more people buying the S4, surely that would mean more sales not less

 

[Aquila]

From what i've been hearing more and more people seem to be leaving iPhone and getting the Samsung Galaxy S4. According to Carphone Warehouse here in the UK, around 30% of people switching to the S4 are people who have defected from an iPhone. So my logic would be, if more people are leaving iPhone = more people buying the S4, surely that would mean more sales not less

True, but the most recent share numbers showed iOS gaining slightly and Android going down, so the exodus can't be too large, or it isn't outpacing new mobile customers, one of the two.

 

[donm527#IM]

the 5 million is possible... if they had enough parts... you hear it from apple and other companies that they are making phones well before launch date to make sure they have enough for a launch. in htc case you heard rumors of not enough supply so they pushed back launch in some countries and diverted supply to others to make sure those markets had enough phones. the first months are probably the largest sales and then levels off.

just like now... they could be about to or are making iphone 5s as we speak... but rumor is release is pushed back to october. it's only june! they have 5 months to build up iphone 5s supplies... geez imagine how many they are going to sell first month. remember they sold 4 million 4s the first 3 days.

Well, the article states "sales doubled to 1.2 million in May", If you do a little math and figure back to release day the 5 million number doesn't hold water!

 

[donm527#IM]

The recent articles are talking gain in the US market and interesting reasoning as to why and what months were involved.

iOS Gaining On Android In U.S., Says ComScore - Mobility -

True, but the most recent share numbers showed iOS gaining slightly and Android going down, so the exodus can't be too large, or it isn't outpacing new mobile customers, one of the two.

 

[donm527#IM]

people that leave the iphone doesnt necessarily mean they go straight to the s4... again, there are many good androids that are as good as the s4... LG optimus, HTC One to name a couple and if you were to low ball and say they only sell a million a month, then that is still 24 million phones a year for only two phone models out in the market that wont go to samsung.

From what i've been hearing more and more people seem to be leaving iPhone and getting the Samsung Galaxy S4. According to Carphone Warehouse here in the UK, around 30% of people switching to the S4 are people who have defected from an iPhone. So my logic would be, if more people are leaving iPhone = more people buying the S4, surely that would mean more sales not less

 

[dave25A]

people that leave the iphone doesnt necessarily mean they go straight to the s4... again, there are many good androids that are as good as the s4... LG optimus, HTC One to name a couple and if you were to low ball and say they only sell a million a month, then that is still 24 million phones a year for only two phone models out in the market that wont go to samsung.

No i didn't mean that everyone who leave iPhone goes straight to the S4, but according to Carphone Warehouse here in the UK, 30% of people who left iPhone have gone to the S4. So my logic was that Samsung should of seen a 30% increase in sales.

 

[slackerjack]

It could just be that its not selling as well as they thought it would. Despite their marketing, no device can overcome the taint of lukewarm reviews and word of mouth, which the S4 had in droves. The S4 is selling mind you, nust not as quickly as they thought it would. In the Ones case the numbers the analysts are giving are just too low to be plausible.

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I dunno...it seems pretty plausable to me that both have wildly undersold what people think they have...remember, valuation is about estimation in the market, done by analyst...who are mostly taking educated guesses based on market facts, speculative sales and sometimes...good old fashion gut feeling. A value, is assigned based on stock targets and market viability... Its not rocket science and it certainly leaves room for error. In this case, an overestimation of sales given the nucking fits sales figures of the gs3...maybe they're right on...maybe they're off...at the end of the day...nothing's solid until earnings are announced.


If I had to guess, I'd say HTC is probably selling more than anyone expected, I don't know what that number is...but something in the three to five million range seems plausible, the Gs4 selling easily twice that seems similarly plausible. It's more troubling to look at non market facts when it comes to HTC and the sound of the door slamming with the gush of high level executives seemingly hemmoraging from the company..but who knows...executives bail...maybe the company ended its use of double ply toilet paper in the executives washroom...

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[donm527#IM]

but 30% of what? how many people are leave iphone?
1000 people? then thats only 300 people that went to s4.
100,000 people? 30,000 phones.

No i didn't mean that everyone who leave iPhone goes straight to the S4, but according to Carphone Warehouse here in the UK, 30% of people who left iPhone have gone to the S4. So my logic was that Samsung should of seen a 30% increase in sales.

 

[dave25A]

but 30% of what? how many people are leave iphone?
1000 people? then thats only 300 people that went to s4.
100,000 people? 30,000 phones.

This is the article i was talking about Samsung Galaxy S4 converting iPhone users left, right and centre | Know Your Mobile

 

[donm527#IM]

Ok... but then how well is the samsung s4 doing in the UK?
Carephone warehouse saying how s4 is doing compared to iPhone 5 sales?
Here...

Apple iPhone 5 remains UK's favourite mobile phone despite Samsung Galaxy S4 launch | Science & Tech | News | Daily Express

"Samsung may have shifted 10 million Galaxy S4 handsets since launch, but Apple?s iPhone 5 is still number one with UK punters, according to new research from uSwitch.
And it isn?t just the latest iPhone that UK punters love either. Apple?s 2012 flagship, the iPhone 4S, came in second place with Samsung?s Galaxy S4 picking up the bronze in third."

This is the article i was talking about Samsung Galaxy S4 converting iPhone users left, right and centre | Know Your Mobile

 

[dave25A]

Ok... but then how well is the samsung s4 doing in the UK?
Carephone warehouse saying how s4 is doing compared to iPhone 5 sales?
Here...

Apple iPhone 5 remains UK's favourite mobile phone despite Samsung Galaxy S4 launch | Science & Tech | News | Daily Express

"Samsung may have shifted 10 million Galaxy S4 handsets since launch, but Apple?s iPhone 5 is still number one with UK punters, according to new research from uSwitch.
And it isn?t just the latest iPhone that UK punters love either. Apple?s 2012 flagship, the iPhone 4S, came in second place with Samsung?s Galaxy S4 picking up the bronze in third."

People will still like the iPhones i have no doubt, i don't dislike the iPhone i currently have a 4S but i do think they have become stale and boring compared to other phone makers. Apple don't seem to be innovating anymore. I'm not against Apple products i love my iPad, but i would like to be able to customise and also feel that paying ?579 for a phone is worth it and not just a minor spec bump like the 5S will be. I think a lot of people are feeling the same way and unless Apple do something, i think iPhone will decline while other phone makers gain ground.

 

[donm527#IM]

well, i understand how you feel... i had the 1st gen iphone and then the 3gs and 4s and wife has 5... but I went with the Nexus 4 recently and I like Jelly Bean. But I dont count out apple... Monday we will find out how different IOS7 is and if they loosen up their hold on it a little and offer a few more features and if rumor of a larger screen 6 is true, then people may love it. That's how the people are and the iphone has been a solid phone. In the meantime, Android makers are killing themselves and they have to sell millions more and still not make the profit apple does on one phone.

People will still like the iPhones i have no doubt, i don't dislike the iPhone i currently have a 4S but i do think they have become stale and boring compared to other phone makers. Apple don't seem to be innovating anymore. I'm not against Apple products i love my iPad, but i would like to be able to customise and also feel that paying ?579 for a phone is worth it and not just a minor spec bump like the 5S will be. I think a lot of people are feeling the same way and unless Apple do something, i think iPhone will decline while other phone makers gain ground.

 

[dave25A]

well, i understand how you feel... i had the 1st gen iphone and then the 3gs and 4s and wife has 5... but I went with the Nexus 4 recently and I like Jelly Bean. But I dont count out apple... Monday we will find out how different IOS7 is and if they loosen up their hold on it a little and offer a few more features and if rumor of a larger screen 6 is true, then people may love it. That's how the people are and the iphone has been a solid phone. In the meantime, Android makers are killing themselves and they have to sell millions more and still not make the profit apple does on one phone.

That is very true, you can never count Apple out, i just feel at the moment they are stale. That's the reason i'm currently thinking of moving to the S4. Mondays WWDC will be interesting to see what is announced, but there wont be a new iPhone according to many people. IOS 7 may be interesting tho. I will be paying a close attention on Monday.

 

[thornesone]

Samsung sales execs and marketing data analysts set an unrealistic goal... No bonus for the hard working sales managers, sales reps, and customer satisfaction reps. "Work harder people" is the message from the top. The money saved is probably equal to the higher sales projection to the bottom line. If we could only see the whiteboard in the secret squirrel room...

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[jokout1]

The fact remains, we have only one solid number and that is Samsung shipped 10 million units in the first 25 days of availability, a record for any Samsung device! Outside of this we only have speculation from third parties that have a lot to gain financially by fudging the numbers one way or the other!
In Samsungs case, while a bit startling, this really makes very little difference since they only lost market valuation gained over the last 4 monthes and still are the moble leader globally!
In HTCs case, these numbers and speculation play a much larger role in the companies viability due to their present condition! I hate seeing Wall Street and Blogers playing money games with a good companies future!

Cheers