Some battery tools give your the effective capacity of the battery, as opposed to the listed capacity... Make note of it out of the box.. When the number starts dropping, is a sign that the battery is nearing the end of life. Typically it'll take several months, maybe a year. And even then, it'll degrade slowly most times.
I just subscribe to the 'charge early/charge often' school and I've never owned a phone that outlived its battery...