Take Google's Pixel, for example. As highly anticipated as the device was, Verizon is the only carrier in the US that offers it to post-paid customers. Sure, you can buy it straight from Google unlocked, but that simply isn't enough to move the needle in its favor in terms of market share. "Right now this phone is priced very, very close to the flagships out there from Apple and Samsung," says Brad Akyuz, NPD's Connected Intelligence industry analyst. "I think that's a big challenge."
Akyuz thinks it'll be difficult for the device to reach a mass audience without support from carriers like AT&T, T-Mobile or Verizon. In particular, he says the Essential Phone could benefit from being offered by carriers on monthly installment plans, the same way they do an iPhone 7 or a Galaxy S8. "Without that," he says, "we're probably looking at a phone, that will do well in a very, very limited niche market."
That said, it also matters how Rubin will view and measure the success of his new product, because it may not be all about the numbers. Along with its new namesake smartphone, Essential also introduced "Home," a smart assistant with a shiny circular design that can be controlled via voice commands. Home is powered by Ambient OS, a new platform that Essential hopes will compete with the likes of Amazon's Alexa and Google's Assistant. (Rubin mentioned that Home will be able to run Siri, Alexa and Assistant at Recode's Code Conference, though it's unclear how that might work.)
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