Having recently alighted from the HPalm/WebOS martyr's tree, (hanging onto a Pre2 for dear life until it pretty much fell apart),I feel the definition of a "relavent lifespan" in an area as fast-paced as mobile communications (not just hardware, but software platforms, emerging standards (think HTML5/Flash in recent years, etc, etc.)) is very much up for grabs, and not to be measured in anything longer than 1 (one) year periods. WebOS was amazing, and ahead of its time, and all kinds of great things... 2.5 years ago. I was petrified of leaving my Card-based multi-tasking and Synergy global search behind. I miss parts of that (had an S3 for all of 1 week), but its not so bad moving on to the next cool thing. And the S3 is definitely that!
With this 1 year horizon in mind, it is really unfortunate that all the carriers went back to 2 year upgrade programs... I think individual plan holders, and family plan members will probably start hopping between carriers with greater regularity in order to avoid punitive charges for new hardware. If you add up the "early termination" fees with the reduced price per line for new phones on a new plan at a new carrier, I think folks would save about $200 / line for a current model smartphone. With the major carriers getting closer and closer to parity on performance and coverage, "MY ATT&T vs YOUR VERIZON" arguments would become less important, and it would be more about "MY iPHONE 17 vs. YOUR GALAXY XV"!.
Sorry about the ramble...
russ