The same was true when I predicted Android passing up iOS on phones. The same was true when I predicted Android would pass up iOS on tablets.
Market share is one thin and profit share is something different. There are only two profitable handset makers as of today: Apple and Samsung. A company is hard pressed to sustain its growth w/o profit. LG, HTC, MOTO, are not making money. Apple has shown that it can be profitable with declining market share. Case in point, the PC/laptop market. Apple has less than 10% of the market and makes more profit than HP which has the largest market share.
Same applies to the handset market SO FAR. Apple makes 62% of the profit and control only 15% of the market. The rest of the profits are taken by Samsung. They dominate the market because they have the profits to drive their growth.
It was speculative that Blackberry and Nokia would be completely knocked out of the smartphone market by 2013. Who would have believed such a thing in 2009?
Yes it was speculative back then to make any prediction about the future. Those who speculate sometimes get it right, but more often than not get it wrong.
Therefore...what? They always will? I don't understand what claim you are trying to make. No one is arguing that they are not on top at the moment.
The point is, you DO NOT KNOW if they will or they will not. You claim to an oracle and are damn certain that Apple and Samsung are doomed, but you have no facts to back it up. Apple has sustained its profits in the past despite declining market share in the PC/laptop market. Why can't it do it again in the handset market? You seem damn certain that Apple is doomed despite its past practice.
Apple did not defy expectations for some things. Like my two examples above. Things happened exactly as predicted.
Just because a company loses market share does not mean it will lose profit share. FACT is Apple takes in 62% of smartphone profits despite declining market share. Samsung has MORE market share than Apple but less profit share, way less. Apple did defy expectations: their profits continue to grow despite declining marketshare. You and others have been singing the Apple is doomed song without the facts to back it up.
It is a fact that Apple marketshare is declining worldwide. It is a fact that Google app revenue is increasing at a faster pace than iOS app revenue. It is a fact that most people who own smartphones, both worldwide and inside the US, own phones that run Android, not iOS. It is a fact that that was not always true, but it is true in 2014.
Once again marketshare does not equal profit share. You seem to believe that it does. This is not new in any market. The early entrant to any market has the largest marketshare. Apple was the early entrant to the candy bar smartphone market, so when others followed and competition ensued Apple had nowhere to go but down. Same with tablet market. BUT that does not mean that all the entrants to the market are making profits. LG, HTC, MOTO, are not making profits. Only Apple and Samsung are making profits.
I just posted it. Google is getting app revenue that would have been iOS app revenue had Android not been around.
Google is not a handset maker. We are talking about handset makers, specifically Apple and Samsung and how they secure almost 90% of all profits. Google give Android for free to handset makers because Google makes most of its revenue from advertising. It is in their interest to give it for free.
So a phone only has value if the company that makes it is profitable...is that what you are trying to claim?
No, a company cannot continue to make phones that have value if they are not profitable. Eventually, LG, HTC, Sony handset division must become profitable or they will be taken over by other companies like what happened with MOTO.
The goalposts have moved to profit because that is the last place Apple still has a lead. Once that has eroded (and IMO it will), I wonder what the next excuse will be.
That is your OPINION. It is not fact. The fact is that in the past Apple has sustained a profitable PC/laptop business despite the loss of marketshare. TODAY, Apple computers have less than 10% marketshare and are more profitable than the leader in marketshare which is HP. If Apple did that in the past why can't they do it in the future?
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