I suspect if will not be much more than the iPad was at $287. Which is why I think $800 price is out of line if it turns out to be true. Even the $700 price which it what I expected they are still making a profit that is above and beyond what most companies short of Apple enjoy.
Let's take the $287 price for the iPad. I won't even begin to argue about some of their suspect costs. $10 for manufacturing and test. I don't freakin' think so!
Let's concentrate on the most important thing: This iSupply price leaves out the most expensive parts of the equation, which are design and development, procurement (cost of money), shipping of the components, shipping of finished goods, storage (space and cost of money) and distribution (middle men). And all these costs are compounded, not simply added.
I'm going to ignore design and development, because it's too huge a thing for me to even remotely guess at. Also, it's amortized over multiple products, but continues to grow as new products are defined. It's a difficult thing to calculate on a per product basis. Just know it's big... probably tens of millions of dollars.
Let's start with the components shipping. The devices are sold FOB their point of manufacture/origin. Any shipping costs from there are the responsibility of the equipment manufacturer. It's probably in the neighborhood of $10 per unit.
$297
These devices are typically paid for within 90 days of delivery. Those are actually good terms. Let's say they will need to pay for the parts about time the units are finished with production test and packaging. After that, between the time they pay for the components and actually receive the money someone paid for the unit, they lose money. It's essentially a loan they give to their supply chain. There is a cost of money. Let's assume 10% and only three months delay (because we think these things will sell as fast as they can make them). On $300, that's $7.50.
$304.50
Shipping can be quite expensive because of the wide distribution. The cost is typically evenly distributed so the the guy in Palukaville or Corn-town will not be paying more than the guy in Los Angeles. Let's say another $10 per unit, but I'm probably underestimating a lot.
$314.50
All these units have to go someplace... temporary storage to be split up to secondary distribution sites, etc... In the semiconductor industry, these people want approximately 20% to 30%. Let's say 25% or 78.50 per unit.
$392.50
It might not be exactly like that, but I'm not far off and probably err on the lower cost side.
So we are already around $400 and we haven't even discussed recouping the investment for creating the darn thing, the company's profit margin, or even the commission the sales guy makes for selling it to you.
Bottom line, phone and pads are probably the lowest profit margin electronics on the market. Apple makes most of it's money off of it's iStore. Why do you think they refuse to allow Flash and Java? It's because people would be able to write their own apps and bypass the store. Everything Apple does is directed at generating residual income off of their products. That's why they are so profitable, not because they are reaping huge profits off of their phones and pads.
Apple's notebooks and computers are another story. The profit margins on those are truly obscene.