Yeah, I'm in the same boat. Either $49 or $0, one way or the other, but I will be getting my new phone on Black Friday.
Good point about buying from another retailer besides AT&T. The big reason I want to buy from AT&T is if I am not happy with the S3 preformance in my area. I live in an isolated area and it is possible the S3 might not work as well for me. Buying from AT&T allows me to go with another phone within the 15 day period. If I buy from Best Buy and I don't like the way it works, (but it's not broken) then I think I am out of luck.
I will try to get the activation fee waived. They did that for me a few years ago when I got my iPhone but they made it seem like they were doing me a huge favor and it was very out of the ordinary. I had to pay the fee, then they issued back a credit on my bill a few month later.
Tom G.