This is just an observation, but after testing this for a while on several Android devices (Pixel 9 Pro XL, Pixel Tablet, Lenovo Tab M9), I do notice that Chrome does seem to open a New Tab by default, but only when opening Chrome after it's been idle for a while. If it had been recently opened, then tapping the Chrome icon will only open those previously opened tabs, without the New Tab. I suspect this behavior is due to Chrome being kicked out of RAM in favor of other processes. There may not be a way of getting around this.