I go through these forums and see the long list of Android devices. All these phones competing against one iPhone and the iPhone still has a larger market share. And most importantly, Apple has 40% of the smartphone profitshare. When it finally lands on Verizon, it's gonna eat Androids lunch. It will slow Androids phenomenal growth. All that talk about a customizable UI is gonna mean nothing. It's the customer experience that really matters and Apple has that mastered.
You also have to look at the demographic of people buying the iPhone and how long it has been out already. For all intends and purposes, Android didn't really start taking off until last year when the original Droid came out. Before that, we had one phone, on the smallest carrier, T-mobile, followed by some mediocre phones on Sprint like the Samsung Moment and the Hero. None of those phones could hold the candle as far as hardware goes compared to the new generation of super smart phones that got their genesis with the Droid. In this rather short year, the growth of Android was enormous, more so than the growth of the original iPhone, and there was lots of hype and marketing behind it. Who buys iPhones now? People that have been buying iPhones all along. For the longest time there was no true competition to the iPhone because the Pre was hindered by horrible dev support and crappy hardware, along with a company betting the farm on one phone. The early Android phones didn't have the hardware power to go toe to toe with the iPhone, and it was only after the Droid came out that Android got much more media and public attention. There is a reason why people don't know what Android is and only know what a Droid is, Verizon did a great job marketing it, unlike Palm and Sprint did for the Pre.
Once the iPhone comes to Verizon, there might be a lot of current iPhone users switching carriers, but, will there really be a whole lot of people that are on Verizon right now ditch their current phone for an iPhone? I kinda doubt it. Blackberry fans are pretty hardcore, but seing how poor it does in the gaming and media department, I would say that they might be the biggest group of people switching to the fruit phone. I doubt that many people carrying a current generation Android phone will ditch it for the iPhone. I mean, really, what's better still on the iPhone compared to Android?? Gaming! And that won't stay like that for very long, considering the rapid development in Android itself, the growing developer support who are tired of having their app denied by Apple or having it drown in the hundreds of thousands of apps in the App Store. If you really have to have a certain game in your pocket, you can always buy an iPod touch. Also, WP7 is joining the party now, and in my opinion, it's looking pretty good.
The days of a carrier making money hand over fist just because they carry the iPhone now are over. The competition is much stronger and getting stronger month by month.
Whatever it may be, the consumer definitely wins. The days where you had to sign your life away to the Evil Empire, and the Fruit Company they're in bed with, are over. Can you smell the freedom of choice.....sniff sniff....I can!