After watching 2 major OS's falling on their faces for the last two years, even while backed by established companies, I don't have much confidence in people caring about Firefox OS or Tizen.
We've had a duopoly in place not for years, but for DECADES with desktop computers, so I don't know why everyone is under the impression that it won't happen with smartphones too. Neither MS or BB have been able to gain any real traction at all even after throwing tons of money at the problem, so I simply don't think the market wants a 3rd or 4th big OS.
Here is the flaw in your statement.
Nobody expected BlackBerry to be the state they are today in 2007.
They were the first time number 1 smartphone company and was the one if the most profitable phone company.
If Android and Apple can do this to the phone market in a 5 year period, something new can do it again.
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