Moving into the post PC era

[Rule9]

Is anyone else noticing this? I just finished listening to a podcast which brought up a very interesting point, which is that despite the oft-repeated phrase "we still need the PC it isn't going anywhere", it appears that even Microsoft of all people doesn't want desktops to continue. Yes I know that sounds crazy but bear with me. If you look closely you'll notice that MS appears to be on the move towards their eventual goal of consolidating Win8 and WinRT into one unified post-PC mobile platform based on the NT kernel, eventually doing away with the distinction between the two. Many are under the impression that RT is going to go away, whereas I believe it's quite the opposite. It will be the desktop style OS that is going to give way for this unified mobile platform, likely incorporating WP as well. I hear you saying that many heavy duty x86 programs need Windows. Examples usually given are heavy lifters like Autocad, Photoshop etc. For now, yes you're right. But take a step back and look at the overall picture and you'll discover that the rate new desktop programs are being developed and released is rapidly dwindling.

Where we're headed is the same place we went when we abandoned DOS for GUI based desktop OS's. The next transition is going to be from the desktop GUI OS to the touchscreen OS running 64 bit and beyond. Before you read too much into that, I'm not saying that we're going to be compiling spreadsheets, autocad files and Photoshop graphics on a touchscreen sans mouse+keyboard. I'm saying we'll be developing heavy duty apps that will run on Android, iOS, and WinRT (or whatever it's going to be eventually called) while still being able to do more demanding work with a mouse/keyboard if required.

Those who are quick to label 64 bit apps in the new iPhone and upcoming Samsung devices as a "gimmick" don't realize this is where we're headed. The tech companies know it, and that's why we're now seeing this coming on new devices. You'll notice Chip manufacturers are also moving in this direction as well, or at least trying to (see Intel Bay Trail and Haswell). Another thing I've noticed is that all 3 companies are realizing they need their own devices division to pull this off. Because it's going to be difficult if you're completely reliant on OEM partners to make a complex transition like this. This is why Google acquired Moto and MS, Nokia. Apple of course already does their own thing.

But we're not there yet. I have always said that MS, love or hate them, was actually more ahead of the curve for this transition than anyone else. The problem is that this is going to be a messy and ugly transition until people become comfortable with it and they made some mistakes in the early phases. If anything, I think MS may have moved TOO early on this, but like all things they do, it's going to eventually, if slowly, get where they're supposed to be. It took a lot of years but they did manage to get Windows on the vast majority of computers worldwide. Today they now have to contend with Android and iOS racing them to the post-PC era so it will prove to be more interesting this transition than the last.

Like I said, the next 5+ years or so is probably going to be a messy affair for all involved, but yes, I do definitely believe we're heading towards the demise of the desktop OS when you consider the decisions the current big players are making now.

 

[abazigal]

The issue I see is twofold.

First, nobody has ever agreed on a singular definition of what the Post-PC era entails. My definition entails a future where computing is simplified and readily accessible to the masses.

Second, the various companies seem to be moving in different ways.

For example, IOS remains very simple to use, with its apps being very appliance-like in nature. Each app lets you perform a specific task very well. I want to record a screencast, I go into the educreations app on my ipad. I want to blog, I go into wordpress. It's also fairly stable (viruses and malware are practically a non-issue, and users don't have to go out of their way or exercise special care to avoid them), quite intuitive to use, and we don't have to bother micromanaging our apps (like force-closing the ones we don't need, because the OS automatically freezes them for us). The app store has allowed consumers to easily locate and purchase fairly inexpensive yet useful apps while still allowing developers to earn a decent profit without necessarily having to rely excessively on advertising or in-app purchases, precisely because it has all but eliminated piracy.

Apple has also chosen to hide the file system in IOS and silo files by app. I find that there are both pros and cons for this.

Conversely, Android seems to about trying to miniaturise the PC operating system as we know it, and bringing it to mobile devices. I have no doubt that people are able to do some very amazing things on their Android devices (think someone here mentioned something about downloading a torrent, using his S4 to turn on his TV, and playing the movie straight). However, Android also seems to have ported some of the PC's shortcomings over as well, such as viruses and malware, piracy, commoditization leading to many OEMs unable to differentiate their products or make a profit, and general complexity. In this sense, I feel that Google has actually delayed the onset of the post-PC era (as I would have liked it to unfold) by a decade at least.

If the future is messy, I feel it's not because of any transition, but more because nobody, aside from Apple and maybe Google, has any idea of what to do or what is going on, besides chasing after the next big trend, nor would they have the resources necessary to effect any meaningful change anyways. If anything, I believe only Apple has the vision, and the capabilities to transition over the post-PC era (whatever that may entail) both swiftly and seamlessly.

 

[Rule9]

I'd have to disagree with that. I think the problem lies not in Google not having a plan but the various OEMs who run Android on their devices. I'm willing to bet this is why we're seeing both Google and MS acquiring a stronger devices division so they can implement these changes easier.
On the MS side of things we're likely looking at a plan as I mentioned above to get rid of the Win8 and WinRT designations and bring on a unified OS that operates as both a mobile and full computing platform. All they're waiting for is the hardware to allow it. If you take a look at that you'll notice various companies from Intel trying to make chips that will allow full computing in a mobile form factor to Seagate working on 500 GB HDs that will fit into a tablet.

As for the malware thing, you'll note that hasn't stopped windows from hugely dominating for the past 2 decades on desktops where this criticism has been levied for just as long.
Just another nitpick: android does manage running apps on its own as well, you haven't had to micro manage them for several versions now.

I will concede that Apple is poised to move into post PC faster at this time, but can they do it better is the real question. I've been pretty underwhelmed by their forward momentum lately.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 4

 

[abazigal]

On the MS side of things we're likely looking at a plan as I mentioned above to get rid of the Win8 and WinRT designations and bring on a unified OS that operates as both a mobile and full computing platform. All they're waiting for is the hardware to allow it. If you take a look at that you'll notice various companies from Intel trying to make chips that will allow full computing in a mobile form factor to Seagate working on 500 GB HDs that will fit into a tablet.

I disagree with this part. If you look at their latest offerings (the Surface and Surface RT), the hardware is easily the most impressive that I have ever seen. I think at this point in time, a device's hardware is more or less a given. What's left is the underlying software, how well it is suited for touch, and how well it integrates with the hardware.

In that aspect, I found the RT lacking because I felt that a desktop OS was ill-suited to a tablet form factor, much less a 16:9 ratio. Things like faster processors, larger storage and higher-res screens do little to improve the user experience.

As for the malware thing, you'll note that hasn't stopped windows from hugely dominating for the past 2 decades on desktops where this criticism has been levied for just as long.
Just another nitpick: android does manage running apps on its own as well, you haven't had to micro manage them for several versions now.

That doesn't mean the issue of malware is any less of an annoyance. I am not saying that malware will stop Windows or Android from expanding its market share. I am simply stating that it remains a very real concern for users.

 

[Rule9]

I understand where you're coming from but I'm talking in terms of a goal, not the current state of affairs

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 4

 

[Geodude074]

Windows RT taking over the desktop?

LOOOOOL.

No. Just no.

One look at the abysmal sales of Surface RT is all you need to know that RT is a huge failure and was a terrible strategy by Microsoft.

Windows XP still comprises roughly 35% of all desktop OS's.

The desktop is not going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Rule9]

Windows RT taking over the desktop?

LOOOOOL.

No. Just no.

One look at the abysmal sales of Surface RT is all you need to know that RT is a huge failure and was a terrible strategy by Microsoft.

Windows XP still comprises roughly 35% of all desktop OS's.

The desktop is not going anywhere anytime soon.

REALLLYZ? LOOLOL LAWLZ ROFFLES DOOOOD!

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4

 

[Geodude074]

REALLLYZ? LOOLOL LAWLZ ROFFLES DOOOOD!

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4

Yes, it's quite hilarious how wrong you are about Windows RT taking over, isn't it?

During the first year of Windows 7, it had acquired about 17% of all desktop OS's. In the same timespan, Windows 8 has only acquired 7% of all desktop OS's - and that includes Windows RT.

Windows 7 and Windows XP together comprise about 80% of all desktop OS's. It's going to take another 10+ years before Windows XP is phased out completely, and by the end of that 10 years, Windows 7 will most likely be where Windows XP is today, with about 35% of all desktop OS's.

You aren't going to see "pure desktop" OS's like XP and 7 phased out for at least another 20 years.

Source:

Operating system market share

 

[Rule9]

It is funny because I made it really easy to understand that I was speaking in terms of a their end plan not how things are right now.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 4

 

[Geodude074]

It is funny because I made it really easy to understand that I was speaking in terms of a their end plan not how things are right now.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 4

LOL.

Well OF COURSE pure desktop OS's like Windows XP and Windows 7 are going to be obsolete with Microsoft's "end plan" as you put it. Out with old technology and in with the new. But that's not going to happen for another TWO DECADES at least! It's not going to happen anytime soon in the next 5 years as you claimed.

Also, Windows 8 RT was an absolute failure and will probably self-implode now that Windows 8.1 is being launched on affordable yet powerful Bay Trail tablets like the Asus Transformer T100. Why would anyone pay $350 for a handicapped version of Windows 8, when they can pay $350 for the full blown version of Windows 8, and get a keyboard to boot?

 

[Rule9]

LOLZ!!

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 4

 

[gollum18]

Are there any full ides released for tablet yet. No? I don't think so. So therefore you still nerd PC developers in order to create tablet applications. They're not going anywhere.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

 

[Rule9]

The trouble with trying to discuss future possibilities on the interwebz is that everybody somehow misses the part where you're not discussing the present tense and blithely proceeds to counter argue based on present tense anyway.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 4