my 2-cents
I have a feeling that the Incredible is going to get Gingerbread and then that's it. The way I see it, is that DInc was Verizon's "Nexus1" - almost literally. That means for 1.25 years it gets android support and that's it?
No, chances are the Incredible/Evo/Nexus1 are going to be the example of the minimum spec'd handsets for gingerbread. They are still powerful phones (running almost the exact same hardware).
If anything, the Milestone/Droid1/D-Eris people will not get official gingerbread.