It certainly appears that a CDMA iPhone is highly unlikely this year, but it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibilities. The 3G iPad is no due for 90 days which if my math is correct has it coming out around May 1st. Apple typically introduces a new iPhone in June/July. If a Verizon iPhone was coming up later this year (in that June/July time frame) how much business would that cost AT&T? I think tons. It would also hurt Apple by people holding off buying any 3G or 3GS phone and waiting for the Verizon one.
If it's taking 90 days to bring a 3G AT&T iPad to market, how long is it going to take to bring an iPhone to market using a new technology (CDMA) with a new supply chain (presuming that Apple needs a new supplier for its radio chips)?
Again, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for one coming this year but until Apple introduces the 4th generation iPhone, there is a chance.