Newsweek: smartphones near obsolescence

[monsieurms]

http://www.newsweek.com/smartphones-are-getting-outsmarted-and-apps-will-be-next-410358

By that, they don't mean smartphones are going away suddenly (although they think that there will be other ways to connect that will dilute having to carry gadgets) but that "Getting a new smartphone is becoming about as exciting as getting a new refrigerator....The design and purpose are fixed and well-understood, so all that’s left are incremental improvements...."

We've been talking about this in phone-upgrade threats.

It seems that Brave New World is here. I just don't see upgrading every year. I'm not sure I can justify upgrading every two years any more barring some "gotta have it" feature. My phone does what I want. It is tweaked the way I want. Tricked out the way I want. Something has to overcome my inertia at this point and incremental upgrades aren't doing it.

 

[treetopsranch]

I'm still using my 10 year old Tracfone, a Motorola C-139

 

[srkmagnus]

Most things in the tech world are like that. There's still a lot of room for growth, such as battery capacity design.

 

[Inders99]

Most things in the tech world are like that. There's still a lot of room for growth, such as battery capacity design.

That's marginal growth and yes there will be refinements in all areas, but ground breaking discoveries have already happened in the phone arena. Next big thing according to my feeble mind: Implantable devices.

 

[monsieurms]

That's marginal growth and yes there will be refinements in all areas, but ground breaking discoveries have already happened in the phone arena. .

That's the thing. I think you do get some improvements when you upgrade. They just aren't enough to justify flipping a $600 phone that took awhile to accessorize and tweak. We don't upgrade our laptops every year just because some marginal new improvement comes down the road. We get reasonable use out of it and then eventually upgrade time comes.

Phones aren't quite THERE yet, as the pattern some people have of upgrades is hard to break. But I think we're getting to that place.

 

[Inders99]

That's the thing. I think you do get some improvements when you upgrade. They just aren't enough to justify flipping a $600 phone that took awhile to accessorize and tweak. We don't upgrade our laptops every year just because some marginal new improvement comes down the road. We get reasonable use out of it and then eventually upgrade time comes.

Phones aren't quite THERE yet, as the pattern some people have of upgrades is hard to break. But I think we're getting to that place.

I held onto my S3 for 3 years before upgrading to the G4. The G4 is a nice phone but doesn't blow me away, and that's ok, I'm not expecting anything but marginal improvements until the next Steve Jobs does something revolutionary.

One thing I'd like to see is a phone becoming powerful enough to replace my laptop and desktop computers. They're close but not really...we're many years from anything like that. To me that would be revolutionary.

 

[monsieurms]

One thing I'd like to see is a phone becoming powerful enough to replace my laptop and desktop computers. They're close but not really...we're many years from anything like that. To me that would be revolutionary.

The power, I think, is not per se the issue. For most ordinary tasks, my tablet can replace my laptop now. In some instances, my phone does replace my laptop, too--I certainly don't take the laptop out and about as much as I used to.

But the barrier for phones is the relatively small screen size, not power or OS. I'm typing here on my desktop. 23" screen. Real estate! Convenient. Comfortable. Less scrolling. Full size keyboard. I'm not going to do a lot of work on 5.7" screen ever if I can help it. It is just too annoying.

 

[Inders99]

The power, I think, is not per se the issue. For most ordinary tasks, my tablet can replace my laptop now. In some instances, my phone does replace my laptop, too--I certainly don't take the laptop out and about as much as I used to.

But the barrier for phones is the relatively small screen size, not power or OS. I'm typing here on my desktop. 23" screen. Real estate! Convenient. Comfortable. Less scrolling. Full size keyboard. I'm not going to do a lot of work on 5.7" screen even if I can help it. It is just too annoying.

Maybe I should have expanded my last comment, more power with docking stations you can just plug into and you get instant keyboard and real estate. These phones are nowhere close for some of my business programs. It would revolutionize my professional life.

 

[recDNA]

Some sort of universal wireless charging would be nice...like whenever in a big store or as soon as you get into car. No dock needed. Phone just charges. Of course then I would need a new car as well as a new phone.

 

[Billy Bob Jimmy Joe]

So, is Project Ara still happening?

Google Nexus 6P

 

[monsieurms]

Most things in the tech world are like that. There's still a lot of room for growth, such as battery capacity design.

The last time I researched this, there seemed to be lots of obstacles in terms of greatly increasing battery capacity. The device technology that consumes tons of power increased at a far faster pace than the battery tech. We burn through batteries pretty quickly if we actually use the devices fully. IN a typical day, I'm reading various publications, surfing the net, reading ebooks and playing MP3s. Sometimes, I stream videos, too, or play a short game. A battery won't even last a full day if I'm doing those things heavily, unless I top off along the way.

I've kinda lost track of where batteries have come to. Have you heard about any significant new increase? If someone comes out with a battery that would last me the better part of a week with MY normal usage, now THAT would cause me to upgrade.

 

[Geodude074]

Our refrigerator has lasted 21 years and counting, there's no way a smart phone will reach that kind of lifespan. In fact just this fall the thermostat in the fridge went out, the old lady was hellbent on replacing the fridge with a new one. But instead of spending $1,000+ on a new fridge, I bought a $50 part off eBay and fixed it myself. I'm guessing it'll last another 5-10 years before we finally replace it.

 

[monsieurms]

Our refrigerator has lasted 21 years and counting, there's no way a smart phone will reach that kind of lifespan. In fact just this fall the thermostat in the fridge went out, the old lady was hellbent on replacing the fridge with a new one. But instead of spending $1,000+ on a new fridge, I bought a $50 part off eBay and fixed it myself. I'm guessing it'll last another 5-10 years before we finally replace it.

Refrigerators only do a couple of things that are really important. The rest is fluff, frills and design. They long ago reached the point where everything seems to do what it should. Smartphones and computers in general aren't quite there...yet.

 

[anon(5719825)]

Samsung gave a warning that sales would likely be down again this year and a troubled year ahead and invited their employees to come up with new ways they can impress on the software side since it's becoming harder to do so with hardware.

I can't remember what news site I read it on since it was on my phone but this is likely going to be an industry wide problem for some time. Samsung also mentioned completion from Apple and other manufacturers were also to blame for lower profits/sales.

 

[monsieurms]

Samsung also mentioned completion from Apple and other manufacturers were also to blame for lower profits/sales.

When next I upgrade, it will likely be a LG or similar since Samsung so ditched removable batteries and SD cards. It's always good to give your competitors an edge in a tough market, eh? Especially when it's hard to impress with hardware. Irony.

 

[BrickedNexus4HALP]

I agree but it's not rocket science. I mean, people are not running huge mathematical operations with billions of loops on their phones.

 

[stackberry369]

That's marginal growth and yes there will be refinements in all areas, but ground breaking discoveries have already happened in the phone arena. Next big thing according to my feeble mind: Implantable devices.

the mark of the beast

Posted via the Android Central App

 

[asherN]

Refrigerators only do a couple of things that are really important. The rest is fluff, frills and design. They long ago reached the point where everything seems to do what it should. Smartphones and computers in general aren't quite there...yet.

I'd argue that smartphones are there. They connect you to the world. They are inherently limited by physical space. There's a sweet spot that balances portability and usability. We're there. 5" is a great spot. 6" is pushing the upper limit of portability.

While it would be great to be able to get to work and put my phone in a docking station and do all I do with my laptop, size and weight related to battery will limit that. My laptop will last about 6 hours on battery connected to wi-fi doing moderate work. The battery is 3X the size of my phone and weighs about a kilo. Not putting that in my pocket anytime soon.

There is a better change the laptop be supplanted by the tablet than by the phone. Even that is iffy. Back to battery size and weight.

 

[Inders99]

While it would be great to be able to get to work and put my phone in a docking station and do all I do with my laptop, size and weight related to battery will limit that. My laptop will last about 6 hours on battery connected to wi-fi doing moderate work. The battery is 3X the size of my phone and weighs about a kilo. Not putting that in my pocket anytime soon.

There is a better change the laptop be supplanted by the tablet than by the phone. Even that is iffy. Back to battery size and weight.

Why can't the battery be charging while in the docking station?

 

[asherN]

Of course it can. but what happens when that powerful CPU has to operate using the phone's battery?