I'm in the IF camp. I own an EVO, and do hope that HTC/Sprint will offer an update.
That said, I think a 2.3 update is somewhat iffy. HTC rarely offers multiple OS upgrades for its devices. Most current smartphones seem to see one update, along with a host of smaller maintenance releases. The EVO has already seen one major OS update from 2.1 to 2.2. Also, it will probably take HTC/Sprint several months to complete and test the update, which would likely push it's release into the Spring of next year, right around the time Sprint is gearing up for the next flagship handset. Since they are more interested in selling NEW handsets, they would be less likely to continue pushing OS updates out to older hardware.
To the idiot who proclaims it would be the death of Sprint, hardly. MOST customers who have the EVO, Hero, Optimus S, etc don't care and aren't sitting there with baited breath waiting for an OS update. They use the phone and if an update comes, great. They update the handset and continue using their phone.
As I said, I do hope the EVO is in line for an update, but I don't really EXPECT it to happen. If not, I'll finally root the thing and update to 2.3 that way. Then next Spring or Summer will upgrade to the next flagship handset running Android x.x.
There is no way Sprint is going to let the Evo just die out. Not gonna happen. The Evo is one of Sprints most important phones ever. Keep in mind that it was MONTHS after the Evo was even confirmed before it was even released. My guess the Evo Shift (if that's even their next big phone) will be out sometime late Sprint or Even summer. There's NO way Sprint is going to just let the Evo die out like that for all those months before their next big phone comes out. Also consider the Epic. The Epic STILL hasn't even gotten Froyo. Which means who knows when they'll even get Gingerbread. So I HIGHLY doubt Sprint is not going to have a Gingerbread device until late sprint early summer of next year. Just not gonna happen.