Jelly Bean is awesome, the Nexus 7 looks like it’s finally going to be the hit they need in the tablet market, and Android is tearing through market share like a hot knife through project butter. These are good times to love the green robot. With nagging problems like OS fragmentation and developers still having legacy problems coding for the OS majority in Froyo and Gingerbread, it seems like the better part of wisdom to say, “hey, let’s slow down, regroup, and take our time.” Users would appreciate it. Developers might applaud it. But Google can’t afford it. Here’s why.
Apple’s predictability is Google’s advantage
The closest phone competitor to Android right now is iPhone. Android overtook iPhone’s market share late in 2010 (Android Overtakes IPhone - Digits - WSJ), partly because users have a variety of prices for Android phones or pay the Apple tax for THE iPhone. In other words, a little more than a year ago, Android barely outpaced iOS. Now is a good time to put on the brakes? Apple upgrades iOS once a year, usually close to the new iPhone release. They have announced the changes in iOS 6, and many of those updates are evolutionary, not revolutionary (and with maps, it’s a solid step backwards). Jelly Bean, likewise, is evolutionary, not revolutionary. Project Butter makes Android faster, like iOS. Google Now catches up to Siri (surpasses?). In other words, both OSes are optimizing code to make things work better, but not bringing a lot of new stuff to the table. But Apple isn’t slowing down on hardware. Rumors point to iPhone 5 being much better. Plus, Apple is finally on three of the four major carriers…and several people will be going off contract. Now is not the time to slow down Android innovation. Google needs to seriously outpace iOS so their phones have more features than Apple.
Microsoft always comes to the party late…and takes over the market.
It’s easy to discount Microsoft in mobile. They have a paltry 5.2% of the worldwide market (Smartphone market share 2012: IDC says Android, iOS to begin declining), and they’ve just announced that none of the new hardware will support Windows Phone 8. Pathetic. Redmond has an interesting past. In a world dominated by Macintosh and Apple II’s, Microsoft came out with a lousy product called Windows, and kicked Apple all over the OS landscape. Then they took a mediocre word processing and spreadsheet package and cleaned Wordperfect and Lotus’s clock with it. They took a decent web browser and decimated Netscape (then king). More recently, they went into an overcrowded game platform market, poured millions into a failing product, and emerged the bestselling game brand. “What about the Zune?” Okay. They have failed, but they keep winning in markets where they had “no chance.” The OS is going mobile, and Microsoft knows to keep relevant, they must have a presence there. Today Windows Phone is well behind Android and iOS. But Windows Phone 8 is becoming Windows 8. Microsoft is taking an 85% desktop market share (Operating system market share) and force feeding them Metro in the next Windows upgrade. Consider also that fully half of the US isn’t even using a smart phone yet (Nielsen: first time Smartphone and Feature Phone usage equal - SlashGear), much less the rest of the world. New smartphone adopters will go for familiar, and Windows 8 will look just like their computer. Google needs to sprint to innovation so Android is so “cool” and intuitive, bypassing Windows Phone 8 is a “no-brainer.”
Fragmentation is a problem for few people
My Galaxy Note just got ICS, about 8 months after it was introduced. My life was months of checking for updates several times a day! My wife, on the other hand, got ICS on her Vivid a few months ago, and didn’t even know it was different. Most of my friends who have Android don’t know what version they’ve got. In other words, most people don’t care about fragmentation. Those of us who do care understand three important facts. First, we know we’re different. We are frustrated, vocal and the vast minority of tech users. We’re fine with being early adopters. Secondly, we know what “root” is, and how to take matters into our own hands. Yes, yes, we understand voided warranties, but it doesn’t stop us if we’re determined. Third, we know if we don’t want to root and play with ROMs, we can always get a Nexus. Those of us who want updates can get them when we want to. It’s too much fun, though, to complain about YOUR VENDOR NAME HERE or YOUR CARRIER NAME HERE and how the real problem is with one of those. Make no mistake, Google needs to cater to us early adopters. When people look for a new phone, they ask us because we know. We are Google’s best advertising if we are happy. But we are not the mass market.
However, just because fragmentation isn’t a consumer problem doesn’t mean Google can rest on Jelly Bean’s laurels. Consumers need differentiators to know why they should want Android over iPhone, Windows Phone or even Amazon Phone. Currently Android looks a lot like iOS. Both have a grid of apps and huge app markets. I know, I know, one is open, one is curated. I understand, but most people don’t know or care. Android’s biggest differentiator currently is choice. Consumers can choose price and device (bigger screen, longer battery life, less expensive, etc.). Apple traditionally doesn’t go there, but Windows does, and Amazon will almost certainly win “cheapest premium phone” award when it becomes available. So where does that leave Android?
Android needs to revolutionize by reaching out
Android has got to grow up and be on more than just your phone. In other words, Android is at that awkward puberty stage. Too young to move up to the adult table, but annoyed at being treated like a kid. The mobile OS market is still immature, which is difficult to imagine with the breakneck pace it’s been on lately. But just like a hormone filled teenager, now is the time for Android to hit its growth spurt. Howard Rheingold in his book “Smart Mobs” forecast that mobile phones would be remote controls of our lives, which was obvious. That was back in 2003 when five of the top ten cell phones were flip phones (Top cell phones of 2003 - Mobile Phones - CNET - CNET Asia). The Nexus Q is an interesting device because it is a social media streamer that runs cutting edge Android. That’s one place it needs to be. It also needs to be in other cutting edge industries to differentiate it from the pack, like biometrics, supercomputing and academia. But why? I mean, we’re just talking about phones, right? Why can’t a phone be enough? Because the competition won’t let them stay there. Apple is moving OSX very close to iOS. And of course Windows is moving WP8 directly in line with Windows 8. Both of those come with much larger, more powerful catalogs of software, and armies of developers waiting to deploy for business, academia, and other markets. The problem is Android isn’t converging with another big platform. It has to create one.
So, yes, Jelly Bean is awesome. But this is no time to slow down. The race has barely begun.
Apple’s predictability is Google’s advantage
The closest phone competitor to Android right now is iPhone. Android overtook iPhone’s market share late in 2010 (Android Overtakes IPhone - Digits - WSJ), partly because users have a variety of prices for Android phones or pay the Apple tax for THE iPhone. In other words, a little more than a year ago, Android barely outpaced iOS. Now is a good time to put on the brakes? Apple upgrades iOS once a year, usually close to the new iPhone release. They have announced the changes in iOS 6, and many of those updates are evolutionary, not revolutionary (and with maps, it’s a solid step backwards). Jelly Bean, likewise, is evolutionary, not revolutionary. Project Butter makes Android faster, like iOS. Google Now catches up to Siri (surpasses?). In other words, both OSes are optimizing code to make things work better, but not bringing a lot of new stuff to the table. But Apple isn’t slowing down on hardware. Rumors point to iPhone 5 being much better. Plus, Apple is finally on three of the four major carriers…and several people will be going off contract. Now is not the time to slow down Android innovation. Google needs to seriously outpace iOS so their phones have more features than Apple.
Microsoft always comes to the party late…and takes over the market.
It’s easy to discount Microsoft in mobile. They have a paltry 5.2% of the worldwide market (Smartphone market share 2012: IDC says Android, iOS to begin declining), and they’ve just announced that none of the new hardware will support Windows Phone 8. Pathetic. Redmond has an interesting past. In a world dominated by Macintosh and Apple II’s, Microsoft came out with a lousy product called Windows, and kicked Apple all over the OS landscape. Then they took a mediocre word processing and spreadsheet package and cleaned Wordperfect and Lotus’s clock with it. They took a decent web browser and decimated Netscape (then king). More recently, they went into an overcrowded game platform market, poured millions into a failing product, and emerged the bestselling game brand. “What about the Zune?” Okay. They have failed, but they keep winning in markets where they had “no chance.” The OS is going mobile, and Microsoft knows to keep relevant, they must have a presence there. Today Windows Phone is well behind Android and iOS. But Windows Phone 8 is becoming Windows 8. Microsoft is taking an 85% desktop market share (Operating system market share) and force feeding them Metro in the next Windows upgrade. Consider also that fully half of the US isn’t even using a smart phone yet (Nielsen: first time Smartphone and Feature Phone usage equal - SlashGear), much less the rest of the world. New smartphone adopters will go for familiar, and Windows 8 will look just like their computer. Google needs to sprint to innovation so Android is so “cool” and intuitive, bypassing Windows Phone 8 is a “no-brainer.”
Fragmentation is a problem for few people
My Galaxy Note just got ICS, about 8 months after it was introduced. My life was months of checking for updates several times a day! My wife, on the other hand, got ICS on her Vivid a few months ago, and didn’t even know it was different. Most of my friends who have Android don’t know what version they’ve got. In other words, most people don’t care about fragmentation. Those of us who do care understand three important facts. First, we know we’re different. We are frustrated, vocal and the vast minority of tech users. We’re fine with being early adopters. Secondly, we know what “root” is, and how to take matters into our own hands. Yes, yes, we understand voided warranties, but it doesn’t stop us if we’re determined. Third, we know if we don’t want to root and play with ROMs, we can always get a Nexus. Those of us who want updates can get them when we want to. It’s too much fun, though, to complain about YOUR VENDOR NAME HERE or YOUR CARRIER NAME HERE and how the real problem is with one of those. Make no mistake, Google needs to cater to us early adopters. When people look for a new phone, they ask us because we know. We are Google’s best advertising if we are happy. But we are not the mass market.
However, just because fragmentation isn’t a consumer problem doesn’t mean Google can rest on Jelly Bean’s laurels. Consumers need differentiators to know why they should want Android over iPhone, Windows Phone or even Amazon Phone. Currently Android looks a lot like iOS. Both have a grid of apps and huge app markets. I know, I know, one is open, one is curated. I understand, but most people don’t know or care. Android’s biggest differentiator currently is choice. Consumers can choose price and device (bigger screen, longer battery life, less expensive, etc.). Apple traditionally doesn’t go there, but Windows does, and Amazon will almost certainly win “cheapest premium phone” award when it becomes available. So where does that leave Android?
Android needs to revolutionize by reaching out
Android has got to grow up and be on more than just your phone. In other words, Android is at that awkward puberty stage. Too young to move up to the adult table, but annoyed at being treated like a kid. The mobile OS market is still immature, which is difficult to imagine with the breakneck pace it’s been on lately. But just like a hormone filled teenager, now is the time for Android to hit its growth spurt. Howard Rheingold in his book “Smart Mobs” forecast that mobile phones would be remote controls of our lives, which was obvious. That was back in 2003 when five of the top ten cell phones were flip phones (Top cell phones of 2003 - Mobile Phones - CNET - CNET Asia). The Nexus Q is an interesting device because it is a social media streamer that runs cutting edge Android. That’s one place it needs to be. It also needs to be in other cutting edge industries to differentiate it from the pack, like biometrics, supercomputing and academia. But why? I mean, we’re just talking about phones, right? Why can’t a phone be enough? Because the competition won’t let them stay there. Apple is moving OSX very close to iOS. And of course Windows is moving WP8 directly in line with Windows 8. Both of those come with much larger, more powerful catalogs of software, and armies of developers waiting to deploy for business, academia, and other markets. The problem is Android isn’t converging with another big platform. It has to create one.
So, yes, Jelly Bean is awesome. But this is no time to slow down. The race has barely begun.
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