I have a friend who is a borderline crazy Apple user who tried to blow off the fact that Android had surpassed Apple in market share, explaining that people were holding off on getting iPhones because they knew something was coming in June. As I retorted then and the sales figures have borne out, while the iPhone would continue to be a hot seller the vast majority of sales would be coming from previous iPhone users who are locked into their apps and frankly too frightened to let go of Lord Jobs' apron strings to try something else. While Apple would be able to brag about huge-sounding numbers and get free press showing the iSheep queuing up to buy the latest loaf pinched by Steve, the fact is that their once-dominant share of the market was shrinking in the face of the Android Army.
It also has to be said that the launch of the iPhone 4 has been just short of a disaster with bad news coming every couple of days. First it was the iPad privacy leaks; then the iPhone pre-order crash AND more privacy problems; then yellow stains which may go away; then the antenna debacle in which Jobs really shot himself in the foot (while it was in his mouth) by sneering that people with problems should just "hold it differently." Now the iSheep were and are committed to getting the new thing to the tune of 3 out of 4 sold being re-uppers, but to those not locked in, all the bad news is giving them pause. I have another friend who isn't a zealot, but he really loves his iPhone and has a bunch of apps, but all the negative reports are scaring him and I'm exploiting his concerns to hard sell him on an EVO.
With all the bad press and as images of shattered phones seep into the collective consciousness, people are going to hesitate and unlike one short year ago, they actually have real options in smart phones. In June 2009, when the iPhone 3GS - a minor update heralding the slowdown of innovation from Apple because they simply didn't need to with all their flock willing to buy anything - came out, the Pre was just starting it's brief, doomed life and there were (as far as I can tell from Wikipedia) only TWO Android phones had hit the street, both on T-Mobile, the smallest US carrier.
But then what happened? Choice, that's what's happened. Many phones on all the carriers at a respectable price and more and more and MORE are on the way. Verizon's DROID campaign tide has lifted all the 'droid boats; the iPhone 4 is being compared to EVOs and DROID Xes and not being automatically declared the prohibitive winner; and unlike Apple, they don't have their head guru rabidly demanding that people dump a near-universal web plug-in or to not hold the phone in your hand if you're left-handed. 160,000 activations a day puts Android on the track to over 60 million per year and it took THREE years for all iOS products - including iPod Touch, iPhone, iPad - to reach 100 million.
Unlike a mere 12 months ago, there are choices now, soon, and coming to the one phone from the one company on the one carrier. More importantly, the excitement is over for Apple until next June. What you see is what you've got until next June. No new hardware is going to be unveiled in the fall, winter or next spring. No significant updates to match Froyo (or maybe Gingerbread) are going to happen. Apple has been able to make the people swoon for three years because there was no alternatives to compare against it. Now, they seem surprised and frightened that they need to actually compete rather just, "hold up phone, PROFIT!"
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