Perhaps however the tablet market is not like the cell phone market. The analogy is more likely to be akin to the iPod versus the old MP3 market. Even that is a reach b/c the old MP3 market was more evolved than the pre iPad tablet market.
IMO there was no tablet market worth mentioning pre iPad. Apple created the market with the iPad and now has a 75-85% share depending on whose numbers you use.
Tablets are not (today) $99-199 purchases so the adoption and or flip model will be very different. Android phones are easier (read cheaper) to acquire and the market for phones was and is much larger. Given the dearth of interesting options outside of the iPhone (and BB for biz users) the market was ready for a new face. Google saw that hole and stepped in. MSFT stood there and let it happen as well.
For non iPad tablet manufacturers the road will be different and more challenging versus the road they have followed for phones.
Wall Street is picking up on this and is forecasting excessive inventories of tablets in 2011 due to over supply. They are pointing to Android, RIM and to a lessor degree HP as the source of over-supply versus the iPad2.
Ecosystems and table native apps will drive tablet sales - AKA the overall experience versus internal specs will drive sales.
Additionally and unlike the phone market competitors to the iPad will need to undercut their prices by about $75-100 to make major dents in Apple's momentum or market share - at least over the next 12-18mos.
Remember the iPad is not only selling to technies who have everything but also to first time computer users (ex: older folks). These new users may find the more embryonic OS/UI of android and lack of native apps a turn off.
They most certainly will find the price points off putting.
So while I expect Android to become the #2 tablet player the trajectory will be unlike the phone equivalent and notion that they will over take Apple is a stretch today.
That means little b/c being the 1 & 2 players in the tablet space is nothing to sneeze at.
RIM and HP will be bringing up the rear - way back in the rear in fact.
IMO there was no tablet market worth mentioning pre iPad. Apple created the market with the iPad and now has a 75-85% share depending on whose numbers you use.
Tablets are not (today) $99-199 purchases so the adoption and or flip model will be very different. Android phones are easier (read cheaper) to acquire and the market for phones was and is much larger. Given the dearth of interesting options outside of the iPhone (and BB for biz users) the market was ready for a new face. Google saw that hole and stepped in. MSFT stood there and let it happen as well.
For non iPad tablet manufacturers the road will be different and more challenging versus the road they have followed for phones.
Wall Street is picking up on this and is forecasting excessive inventories of tablets in 2011 due to over supply. They are pointing to Android, RIM and to a lessor degree HP as the source of over-supply versus the iPad2.
Ecosystems and table native apps will drive tablet sales - AKA the overall experience versus internal specs will drive sales.
Additionally and unlike the phone market competitors to the iPad will need to undercut their prices by about $75-100 to make major dents in Apple's momentum or market share - at least over the next 12-18mos.
Remember the iPad is not only selling to technies who have everything but also to first time computer users (ex: older folks). These new users may find the more embryonic OS/UI of android and lack of native apps a turn off.
They most certainly will find the price points off putting.
So while I expect Android to become the #2 tablet player the trajectory will be unlike the phone equivalent and notion that they will over take Apple is a stretch today.
That means little b/c being the 1 & 2 players in the tablet space is nothing to sneeze at.
RIM and HP will be bringing up the rear - way back in the rear in fact.
A yeah and a half ago so called analysts said Android had no shot of over taking Apple or RIM. Well, a yeah and a half later Android owns the phone market and there is no end in site. With that being said the love affair with Apple and their good but not great products will always continue. But the facts will be the facts and Google will one day dominate this market as well.
We all know Apple was the one who started it all, but now they are playing catch up. They may dominate the tablet market but they are already playing catch up with the technology. There time as the leader on the phone side has passed and in a year or two you will see the same with tablets.
So, I say I love my Xoom and who cares if sales are off to a good start or not. This is a marathon and not a sprint.