Predict first weekend sales for Evo

[fr4nk1yn]

the mind sees what you want it to...

Perhaps I was hallucinating? I did have peyote that day.

HTC and Sprint are not Apple.

My point on fees is not related to WHO is charging them but that they are being charged and that will shut off consumers faster than anything. It created the impression of a lack of value and it creates confusion about the true cost of the phone/Sprint service.

To some extent I agree. But they will pay if they want the device and the iPhone is an example of that.
I personally don't care about the $10, Call it what you want, tax/fee, I rather enjoy watching all the folks complain about not being able to put gas in their car or feed their family because of it. AT&T and VZ have both made data mandatory on smartphone or "media devices". This is where the industry is going. Sprint is LATE on this, it'll be on more device soon enough. But yeah it is creating confusion and Sprint is not explaining it "correctly", Again back to Sprint's horrible PR.

yea, but most people won't know the difference. I bet you that if you sign up for the Qik service, it will show up on your sprint bill (like ringtones, etc). Most users won't know the difference and blame Sprint for it

If you read the leaked photo the $5 charge is to be paid through PayPal, NOT through Sprint. They most certainly will know or at least should if they don't jump to conclusions.

 

[Caitlyn McKenzie]

A. Qik's 2 way video calling is FREE, people. They already explained this. The $5/m charge is for premium services that have yet to be disclosed.
B. As mentioned, this is through Qik, NOT Sprint. You'll likely see the same fee on other phones with other carriers for these undisclosed premium services.

 

[Caitlyn McKenzie]

do you have any numbers for other weekends for other phones? such as the Droid, Droid Incredible, Pre, Iphone 3gs? Thanks

Did you even read the first post of this thread at all?

 

[eyecon82]

lol..I guess not...thanks though

 

[Paladin]

You guys make some good points. I think I was being way over optimistic. I was also thinking week. Just the weekend alone I think there will be 475,755 units sold. That's my number and I am sticking to it! ii

Seriously it is hard to really know. It will not surpass the iPhone for two main reasons.

1) Apple fanboys will buy anything Steve says to. I kid I kid... Its what I do... ii
(Between you and me I am actually serious, shhhh don't tell...)

2) For most iPhone users it is just a simple update as their carrier and plans did not really change. They just went from the 2G to the 3G or the 3G to the 3GS easy.

The original iPhone did not sell nearly as well as the upgrade did as people had to change carriers, get used to it etc... After that it was MUCH easier to just go and get the new phone as it will be for the new iPhone that is to come. It is easy for people to just upgrade one phone on one carrier.

That was also an easier upgrade for them than a lot of people switching over to Sprint. It is hard to change carriers for some people, mentally that is. People get used to a carrier and hate change. That WILL hurt sales.

That is why a million iPhones was not unheard of, they already had a huge phone base installed. Remember guys they only have ONE phone... Android has dozens and they spread over various carriers and that hurts the weekend sales for just one of our devices.

Regardless I think the Evo will do really well and surpass expectations, at least I hope so.

 

[sandewest]

yea, but most people won't know the difference. I bet you that if you sign up for the Qik service, it will show up on your sprint bill (like ringtones, etc). Most users won't know the difference and blame Sprint for it

It has been established that the Premium Fee will have to be paid through paypal, not Sprint. There will not be a $5 fee for everyone just for those that choose the Premium service.

 

[DocPeanut]

Judging by members interest here and other places, I'm gonna say 12 units will be sold over the weekend lol

 

[xorg]

My take is Sprint will sell as many as they had manufactured for launch up to maybe 750K. If HTC made 500K Evos, they'll probably sell by the first week if not first weekend. If you look at the other top sellers, the launches were limited by how many were manufactured for launch. Look at what happened to Incredible.

As I've already posted, Sprint _should_ have over 1M ordered for launch. If they don't sell them in first week, they'll eventually sell them. If they do sell all in first week/weekend, they will have a huge psychological momentum being up there with iPhone sales. Not that I expect it to happen, it would just be a lost opportunity if Sprint doesn't go for it.

 

[boggs3010#AC]

I can see 300,000 or so. I went to Worstbuy ( Bestbuy) with the wife she wanted to feel and see an EVO the sales person handed her the dummy phone and walked away. My wife handed her the phone back a few minutes later. The sale person said nothing and resumed talking to her associate. My wife left with nothing and is ready for a new 2 year upgrade. The sales people at Worstbuy ( I used to be a BB associate) are lazy young kids (most). The associates are not aggressive and expect the phone to sell it's self. I was part time and out sold the full time associates.

 

[fr4nk1yn]

Not to go off topic but you only go to BB to buy a phone AFTER you've made up your mind to buy it.
Buying it from them is pretty quick and hassle free if you've already made up your mind.
Heck they don't even have live devices.

I don't think that will hamper the sales one bit.

 

[xorg]

Seriously it is hard to really know. It will not surpass the iPhone for two main reasons.
.

When the last two generations of iPhone were sold, wasn't it just through Apple/ATT stores the first week? I'm thinking so.

Evo is being sold via BestBuy (1000 stores), RadioShack (~5000 stores) which have taken pre-orders. Did iPhone ever take pre-orders? Evo is also being sold through just about every Sprint reseller. I'm not sure how many Sprint stores but if even zero, there are more places selling Evo than iPhone initially.

Apple has about 200 stores and ATT has about 2200 with I believe no pre-orders.

Sprint has the initial channels to outsell iPhone and a lot of Palm Pre owners (over 1M on Sprint?) are itching to switch. The two big questions..

- How many EVOs were manufactured
- Are there >1M people interested in buying one

I doubt there are 1M manufactured and if there are >1M interested, some will wait for iPhone announcement. But if 500K have been manufactured for launch, I think Sprint has a shot at selling out first weekend or first week. Managers of RadioShacks claim 200K are already allocated/pre-ordered. BB manager on other forum claims BB corporate has never seen pre-sale as high as Evo for any device.

What I find very interesting is that many small Sprint resellers will have Evo's on day 1 (some semi-large ones get about 50 phones on first shipment, like 3Gstore.com). There must be a lot of them manufactured already. My guess is 500K, possibly 750K.

 

[MOE-GUNZ]

Went to pre-order one...sold out

I have to wait till the second shipment date...sucks

 

[Carioca_FL]

keep in mind RS has presold 200,000 units, BB has surely presold more units than that. i think 750-1mil is not out of the question.

C'mon, you preach that like it's gospel. Just because someone posted a claim, it suddenly gets carried out to all four corners of the internet, becoming a fact.

I seriously doubt Radio Shack has presold 200k units, half that and it would be an accomplishment. Best Buy could probably near 200k, however.
Since Sprint has less stores than both of these retailers combined, a 500k launch weekend could be considered a really successful launch.

 

[Caitlyn McKenzie]

Yeah, the 200,000 number is almost assuredly BS. I would be SHOCKED if there were 200,000 units sold between RS and BestBuy combined, preorder or not.

 

[Jeremy]

It's unfortunate but the Iphone's sales will decimate the Evo's. I really want to see this phone succeed.

The announcement of the new iPhone on June 7th alone will halt the Evo's sales for most consumers. Except the sales of people like us who hang out in forums such as this. Sprint is not even hyping this device. At the end of the day it should sell fairly well considering what I've mentioned. And a device such as this deserves to do well.

 

[DocPeanut]

Went to pre-order one...sold out

I have to wait till the second shipment date...sucks

You have a good chance to pick one up on launch day at the Sprint store. Granted, this will require the MIR.

 

[jonathanlc2005]

Million sold:

Att and verizon buying all of them so sprint customers retreat when no phones available

 

[Hiruzen]

It will sell out, just like the HD2. So, as many many shipped will be sold.

 

[Phongables]

The Store manager at my local R.S said 500k has been pre ordered......

 

[Prkl8r]

I still stick the the "Droid Does" campaign as being genius.
They created a buzz that's still carries. I know a guy that reads all the sites daily, considers himself a tech geek and he can't, or does distinguish, "Droid" from Android. He thinks "Droid Does" = "Android Does".
Plus they continue to name the devices "Droid" and whatever phone carries on with the original campaign so those devices has good launches as well.
In effect the ads for the Droid Incredible started last year.

I agree, their first commercials were GREAT! Got Android into the minds of people that there is an alternative that does more. HOWEVER, I really think it's time to open up Android marketing to the general consumer. The new ads for the incredible are abysmal, they keep yammering about how "fast" it is, but never show it being used. Just show the effing phones and what it does. I think it's time to drop the nerd-centric marketing. Us Tech geeks salivate over these from rumors and FCC postings, I don't think a robot pushing buttons on a phone is going to be the thing that makes me buy it.

Apple is amazing with their advertising, they make every man, woman, and child see how easy it is to use, and why they want one. The new Droid ads talk about Google Sky maps, cool...yes, would I buy a $200 phone because of it...no.