A big Nexus 6 might be a big mistake for Google

[ultravisitor]

A conflicting opinion like yours doesn't make data any less true. At least most of my posts contained studies or data about the question of when a phone is too big. I'd be interested to see what what examples you have?

Um, I did not offer an opinion. What I did do was post that the data you offered by way of that article is outdated. At the time of that article, the Galaxy S3 had sold many millions. Specifically: over 50 million as of March 2013 according to one article I read. That is fact. It featured a 4.8 inch screen--a size which happens to land right into the range that the majority of people "flocked to" according to that article. That is fact. Many phones, including successful ones, such as the Galaxy S4 and Galaxy S5, have been released since the date of that article that feature screen sizes that fall outside the range offered by that article. That is fact, unless you will quibble about the use of the word "many" or question the characterization of the Galaxy S phones as "successful".

If you can't understand that the numbers you posted from that article are not quite relevant to today's market, then I can't help you. Sure, the data you posted was true...a year and a half ago.

Opinon alert: If anything, what that article might suggest is that consumers flock to whatever size phones they are offered. Whatever the size most phones seem to be at the time, that is what people buy. So maybe the Nexus 6 will do okay with such a big screen. It's big, but it's not so much bigger than the rest.

 

[deesugar]

Um, I did not offer an opinion. What I did do was post that the data you offered by way of that article is outdated. At the time of that article, the Galaxy S3 had sold many millions. Specifically: over 50 million as of March 2013 according to one article I read. That is fact. It featured a 4.8 inch screen--a size which happens to land right into the range that the majority of people "flocked to" according to that article. That is fact. Many phones, including successful ones, such as the Galaxy S4 and Galaxy S5, have been released since the date of that article that feature screen sizes that fall outside the range offered by that article. That is fact, unless you will quibble about the use of the word "many" or question the characterization of the Galaxy S phones as "successful".

If you can't understand that the numbers you posted from that article are not quite relevant to today's market, then I can't help you. Sure, the data you posted was true...a year and a half ago.

Opinon alert: If anything, what that article might suggest is that consumers flock to whatever size phones they are offered. Whatever the size most phones seem to be at the time, that is what people buy. So maybe the Nexus 6 will do okay with such a big screen. It's big, but it's not so much bigger than the rest.

This is what you are saying:

• Samsung is a successful company.
• The Galaxy is a successful phone.
• Samsung keeps making larger Galaxy phones.
• Many people buy them (no need to quibble about how many).
• There are now many phones (no need to quibble about quantities) like the Galaxy phone that have a two tenths of an inch larger screen then the sweet spot in the study.
• Therefore a year old study is no longer true.

I respect your opinion or hypothesis if that word makes you feel better but it doesn't change the fact that phone sizes are maxing out as pointed out by that study, people will not be buying 7 or 8 or 9-inch Galaxy phones in droves just because they are offered it, as you're suggesting. The study points to evidence that 6-inch phones are not popular, which is what this thread is about. If the study was run again today would the numbers be different? Yes. Would they be wildly different numbers, only if two tenths of an inch is deemed to be wildly different. Have you presented any evidence to the contrary of 6-inch phones being too big? No.

 

[RealDogBoy]

There's plenty of data to support the idea that phablets are selling very well right now. Here's a (7/24/14) Wall Street Journal article about how small tablets are in decline -- while large smartphones are the hottest category in consumer electronics (not just among phones.)

 

[Storm24]

For those on Verizon the Droid Turbo looks like the real Android phone to beat them all.

5.2-inch display with a resolution of 2,560 x 1,440 pixels, a Snapdragon 805 quad-core processor that runs at 2.65GHz, a 19-megapixel camera, 3GB of RAM, 32GB storage.​

Which is exactly why the 6 will be a niche device just like all other Nexus'. Google never intended for this device to compete with the Apples, Samsungs, HTCs, and yes even Motos of the phone world. It is just a reference device for what android should run like. I work in IT at a large hospital with over 150 IT employees. Only one other person has a Nexus besides me. Even most of the ardent Techno-nerds have either never heard of it or don't care about it. It is a very small percent. I wouldn't be surprised if in that AC poll that if you polled those people, very few were even looking at buying a nexus regardless of how it was released.

 

[ultravisitor]

The study points to evidence that 6-inch phones are not popular, which is what this thread is about.

Right. But is that any surprise given the size of most phones, particularly flagships, at the time of the study? Though I have admittedly not done the research, I would guess that most phones at the time of that study fell in the 3.5 to 4.9-inch range. Even a phone as old as the Droid had a 3.7 inch screen. How many phones were available at the time of the study were bigger than 5 inches, let alone 6 inches? And what was the quality of most of those phones--were they flagships or were they of a lower tier than what most consider flagship? Given those things, is it any wonder that those phones were not selling in huge numbers?

So, that study suggests that most people will buy most phones that are available to them. Um, duh.

people will not be buying 7 or 8 or 9-inch Galaxy phones in droves just because they are offered it, as you're suggesting.

Actually--and I understand that you are being a bit hyperbolic--if it is true that most phones at the time of that study were in the 3.5 to 4.9-inch range, what that study seems to suggest is that if most phones were in the 7 to 9-inch range, people would be buying lots of those. Why? Because that would be most of what is available on the market. People can only buy what is offered to them. If most of the phones being manufactured are in the 7 to 9-inch range, then it stands to reason that manufacturers are making them because the opportunity for success exists in the market. Remember, at one point people were saying that 5 inches was too big and people wouldn't buy them. Look at what happened. Clearly enough people were buying the gigantic 5+-inchers that other manufacturers jumped on board.

You can't expect data from an article that is a year and a half old to hold true unless the market is stagnant. I think it's pretty clear that the smartphone market has seen some tremendous change in terms of screen size. As such, you can't simply present the data and expect it to apply to today. Some interpretation and extrapolation needs to be involved in order to make it applicable to today. I saw none of that from you.

Have you presented any evidence to the contrary of 6-inch phones being too big? No.

Before even discussing my lack of evidence, point to me where I made that claim about the phone and market in general. The most I said was that the Nexus 6 (or whatever) might do okay.

 

[Ahmad Nassr]

I am really doubt this

 

[Chex313]

Just a couple other points.. Google doesn't lose any money on the Nexus 5 or any Nexus, They make money.

5.5" phone statistics are going to change dramatically with Apples entry into the space. Apple is going to sell more Iphone Plus's within a year than all the Notes and other 5.5" and up phones combined. Not a user of the iphone but we can all see Market share statistics.

Next year pundits will be declaring how popular the huge phones are.

Every time I think a phone is too big, and go back to the smaller phone. I miss the big screen and think the small phone is too small. I dont know why that is, but it seems to hold true.

 

[someguy01234]

That's what they said about the original Note.

I know more people who want big phones than people who want small phones.

 

[Haalcyon]

I don't know ANYONE who wants a small (<4.7" phone) phone due to size but some will settle because of cost.

 

[Jeremy8000]

The concept of Nexus being a developers device is long over. True with the first Nexuses but the Galaxy Nexus, N4, and N5 were all consumer oriented. Not as mainstream as Samsung but still aimed at the consumer crowd.

Being aimed at the consumer crowd doesn't mean it isn't a developer device -- the OS is aimed towards that same group, after all. That the Nexus lineup traditionally embodies top-performing chipsets and fundamental hardware while eschewing top-end side features (i.e., no fingerprint scanners, not a industry-leading camera, etc) if anything points further that it is designed to be a developer device (which yes, many consumers like) because it isn't trying to one-up all the other flagships, but rather to be capable of fully and properly exercising the OS and to be strong enough to work smoothly with the subsequent 1-2 releases.

 

[JasW]

The vast majority of folks whining about larger phones have never used one on a regular basis. Instead, they check one out at Best Buy for five minutes, deem it too large and awkward for them, and then get on the Internet and tell everyone how large phones are terrible. There are exceptions to this I'm sure. But most people who use Notes and the like will tell you that they got over any "awkward" initial period, accustomed themselves to the size fairly rapidly, and now would never go back to a phone 5" or less.

This was my problem with the Nexus 5 last year -- I just couldn't leave the bigger screen of my Note 2 for such a small phone, no matter how much I wanted it. Now my (presumed) problem is: Nexus 6 or Note 4?

 

[Robbie317]

The vast majority of folks whining about larger phones have never used one on a regular basis. Instead, they check one out at Best Buy for five minutes, deem it too large and awkward for them, and then get on the Internet and tell everyone how large phones are terrible. There are exceptions to this I'm sure. But most people who use Notes and the like will tell you that they got over any "awkward" initial period, accustomed themselves to the size fairly rapidly, and now would never go back to a phone 5" or less.

This was my problem with the Nexus 5 last year -- I just couldn't leave the bigger screen of my Note 2 for such a small phone, no matter how much I wanted it. Now my (presumed) problem is: Nexus 6 or Note 4?

About how it went with my wife... First she was a Blackberry user who swore she'd NEVER use a touchscreen phone.... Then she got an iPhone and I had got a HTC EVO 4G and she swore she could NEVER go bigger than the iPhone and it's 3.5 inch screen (I think the EVO was 4.3) and finally she did switch and ended up with a Galaxy S3 as her first Android phone and now has the HTC One M8...... each time swearing she'd never get anything bigger....

 

[Ry]

I wouldn't want to go bigger but staying smaller would probably lead to some compromises that I'm not willing to make.

 

[Citizen Coyote]

The information provided in that Wired article is sadly out of date, and the comments both in it and its source article tell me the authors misread phone trends. First off, from the Wired article, we have this little gem from the end from IHS analyst Kevin Keller:

“Display makers have taken [display size and resolution] to its extreme,” Keller said. “There’s not going to be any market demand to go any greater in that area.”

This was back in April of 2013. The resolution of phones since then has only grown, to the point where 2K screens are now a thing. So much for "no market demand to go any greater."

Second, let's look at this bizarre conclusion from Wired's source ("Size Matters for Connected Devices. Phablets Don't."):

In particular, smaller smartphones under-index in terms of app usage compared to the proportion of the installed base they represent, and would suggest they are not worth developers’ support. Phablets appear to make up an insignificant part of the device installed base, and do not show disproportionately high enough app usage to justify support. Tablets, on the other hand show the most over-indexing of usage, especially in games. The success some game developers are having with a tablet-first strategy, like dominant game maker Supercell, may also inspire developers of other types of apps to consider focusing on tablets (emphasis added).

LOL. Yes, phablets are insignificant and don't matter, while tablets are the way of the future! And yet, 19 months (19!) after Flurry's data was recorded, we have Apple selling a phablet and tablet sales in general are stagnating (and note that the Engadget article itself was written a year after the Wired one and its source article).

My point is, you can not rely on old data to make predictions in a market that moves as fast as mobile technology. Conclusions that seemed foregone based on available data may be proven wrong down the road, and if you rely on that data to support arguments now, don't be surprised when they're torn down.

And for the record? Check out Flurry's most recent article regarding phablets:

Today, Phablets account for 18% of all active Android devices compared to 7% in 2013, a sign of significant, growing demand for larger phones. Over the same time period, demand shrank 9% for Medium Phones and 4% for Small Phones running Android. [...] Our data affirms what Samsung and other Android manufacturers have known for some time: Consumers are hungry for bigger screens.

I guess we'll find out in 18 months if that still holds true.

 

[illdini]

One-hand mode and/or voice commands. Usage problem solved.

 

[jroc]

From the SlashGear article in the OP:

...
If — and that’s still a big “IF” — Google and Motorola deliver on a 6-inch Nexus 6, it’s going to be a tough sell. Not only do they need to find a way to convince a public uninterested in a massive smartphone to buy one, but they probably need to diversify their existing and popular Nexus lineup.
...

That's so out of touch -- the market for phablets is red hot. Google will have no trouble selling a 6" Nexus. The problem is more likely to be on the other side -- demand exceeds supply and not everybody who wants one will be able to buy one right away.

The point of the article is that Google is making a mistake because they're misreading consumer preferences. There's no doubt in my mind that a Nexus phablet will sell. The only way Google could blow it is by not marketing a more normal-sized phone as an alternative -- either keeping the current Nexus 5 or an updated version of it -- and I think they'll continue to sell one of those.

That quote was all I needed to read. Where have they been since 2010? EVO and Droid X were some of the hottest, most popular phones when they launched. And phones have gotten bigger since then. Samsung all but has the phablet market to themselves.

Maybe...just maybe....the article was written because of lower than expected iPhone 6+ sales....

 

[Zendroid1]

That quote was all I needed to read. Where have they been since 2010? EVO and Droid X were some of the hottest, most popular phones when they launched. And phones have gotten bigger since then. Samsung all but has the phablet market to themselves.

Maybe...just maybe....the article was written because of lower than expected iPhone 6+ sales....

Yeah the fact that it's impossible to find a 6 Plus without waiting outside Apple for hours or order online and wait a month must mean sales are miserable.

 

[jroc]

Yeah the fact that it's impossible to find a 6 Plus without waiting outside Apple for hours or order online and wait a month must mean sales are miserable.

iPhone 6 Vs. iPhone 6 Plus sales: 6 Plus seems far behind | BGR

Just going by web traffic data....thats all. Remember the 10 million number is combined. I agree tho it being back ordered, supply shorted plays a factor too. We will see in a year or 2 if many do want the bigger iPhone.

Btw...lower than expected sales does not equal miserable sales. Just....lower than expected.

 

[I Can Be Your Hero]

The author of the article does make some good points. The difference between a device with a 5" screen and a 5.9" screen is more than a little bump. It could see many people who were looking forward to the Nexus 6 be turned away, but then again it may attract people to the device who were looking for larger screened phones.

I have no dog in this fight. I personally don't care too much how large the screen is, just that there is a Nexus 6 being made. I do have a slight hope in the back of my mind that there will be a 5"-5.2" Nexus 6 phone along with the leaked 5.9" model, but if that's not the case then that's ok. I'll live.

 

[swebb]

Being aimed at the consumer crowd doesn't mean it isn't a developer device -- the OS is aimed towards that same group, after all. That the Nexus lineup traditionally embodies top-performing chipsets and fundamental hardware while eschewing top-end side features (i.e., no fingerprint scanners, not a industry-leading camera, etc) if anything points further that it is designed to be a developer device (which yes, many consumers like) because it isn't trying to one-up all the other flagships, but rather to be capable of fully and properly exercising the OS and to be strong enough to work smoothly with the subsequent 1-2 releases.

I wasn't clear enough. What others seemed to be saying is that Nexus is a phone *only* aimed at developers. What I should have said better was that in the beginning that was true. Then Goggle sold Nexus S and the GN through carriers. N4 was sold in the Play Store unlocked. Google was now also targeting mainstream consumers. Now all the Nexus phones are wonderful developer tools because of unadulterated Android, but for Google to advance to the consumer market, they have to be aware what the consumer will potentially buy. The 75% disapproval of a 6" phone in the AC poll is huge in my opinion.

No doubt that a N6 will still sell because the main competition, Samsung, adds too much of their own software to the Note. Same with the iphone 6+. There is a market for phablets that is turned off by Samsung, but I do believe it would sell much better in a 5.2" to 5.5" range. There is no way the N6, as rumored, will outsell the N5.