S4 Sales Lower Than Expected

[JHBThree]

Roflmao an anonymous htc exec over someone who works for a major Wall Street investment firm? Oooookkk

Yes. One has inside knowledge of sales. Another is guessing.

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[JHBThree]

Uh htc debunked its own number and ran away from 5 million the same day that rumor came out.

They didn't, actually.

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[JHBThree]

Please find a source besides the original anonymous source that all the 5 million sales claims come from. So far all the claims stem back to the original claim which htc refused to confirm.

Posted via Android Central App

Refusing to confirm is a very different thing than denying that they're accurate. HTC is being very careful about managing expectations, for the reason Samsung is now experiencing.

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[JHBThree]

I can't believe we circled back around to arguing about "fake" sales numbers.

I am disappoint.

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Usual suspects, doing their usual thing.

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[The Hustleman]

Well considering people are still under contract for the galaxy s III, the 4 wouldn't do as well as they want.

Note the galaxy s 5 on the other hand...

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[return_0]

Well considering people are still under contract for the galaxy s III, the 4 wouldn't do as well as they want.

Note the galaxy s 5 on the other hand...

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But shouldn't that be made up for by sales from people switching from the GS2 and the iPhone?

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[JRLasVegas]

My cousin works for HTC here in America and he doesn't even know how much they sold. But he has heard rumors .......

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[jdoee100]

What is it with media these days? I mean WSJ, THE WSJ reports bogus 5 mi figure. And now some media reports "S4 Sales Lower Than Expected." Yikes, even tabloids have better standards!

 

[rushmore]

How is it bogus? Most of the data is paid for and provided by companies that specialize in channels, customers and marketshare data of products. My own company uses the services and pay a bunch of money each year, but still cheaper than having in house staff do it.

Why would WSJ lie about this when they have paid staff that does the data mining for them? Makes sense considering WSJ core competencies. They are not Wall Street Jesters

The data is not free, nor is the analysis and fancy Power Point and flat file csv data they give you. Not everything can be Googled or provided forthright from the companies being assessed.

 

[jdoee100]

R u saying 5mi is not bogus? I said this on another thread, but i'll say it again. HTC themselves reported this year's May revenue, and the revenue was ~3% lower than last year's May revenue. Correct me if i'm wrong, HTC had very bad 2012. So then, this year's revenue is actually worse than last year's revenue, how could they have sold 5 mi. If they had sold anywhere close to 5mi HTC ones, they should've had a banner month.

 

[Aquila]

R u saying 5mi is not bogus? I said this on another thread, but i'll say it again. HTC themselves reported this year's May revenue, and the revenue was ~3% lower than last year's May revenue. Correct me if i'm wrong, HTC had very bad 2012. So then, this year's revenue is actually worse than last year's revenue, how could they have sold 5 mi. If they had sold anywhere close to 5mi HTC ones, they should've had a banner month.

You're describing a difference of $29 million year over year. At $600 per phone, that's a difference of about 48,000 phones. How many did they sell last May?

 

[jdoee100]

I don't know how many HTC sold last May. But it's quite obvious (to me anyways) that if HTC had sold their flagship smarphones like S3-like numbers (which was about 5mi per month), they would be standing toe to toe with samsung and apple right now. In fact, last year HTC shipped about 32.7mi smartphones total(all combined smartphones last year) compared to ~40mi S3s.

 

[jdoee100]

One more thing, ~40mi S3 is span of 8 months(May`12~Dec`12), HTC ~32.7mi is span of 12 months.

 

[Aquila]

One more thing, ~40mi S3 is span of 8 months(May`12~Dec`12), HTC ~32.7mi is span of 12 months.

Okay, so if we pretended seasonality wasn't a thing and all months were average (we know flagships are much higher than that, but for example), the worst case scenario last year was 2.725 million devices per month. So if April and May were average, HTC should have sold around 5.45 million. We think we know from the revenue numbers that it might be 3% less, or 5.28 million (in two months). Guessing 4-5 million isn't unreasonable, given that the peak months for phone sales are going to be when flagships are released, in this case Q2 for Samsung and HTC.

 

[rushmore]

R u saying 5mi is not bogus? I said this on another thread, but i'll say it again. HTC themselves reported this year's May revenue, and the revenue was ~3% lower than last year's May revenue. Correct me if i'm wrong, HTC had very bad 2012. So then, this year's revenue is actually worse than last year's revenue, how could they have sold 5 mi. If they had sold anywhere close to 5mi HTC ones, they should've had a banner month.

Referring to the Samsung info. Some folks seem to be in denial to some degree.

 

[jdoee100]

You are confusing me. I'll try to make this simple as I can.
S3 => 5mi per month. (2012)
HTC (this includes inexpansive to flagship phones) => 2.7mi per month. (2012)

HTC revenue 2012 => 2.7mi per month.
HTC revenue 2013 (~3%less) => less than 2.7mi per month => HTC one sales less and less than 2.7mi(HTC one 1.4 mi sold probably), because this figure includes more than at least 5 other models.

Even if HTC had a peak month last year, you are not going to see more than 100% increase from month to month. Even if this was possible, HTC one would need alot more than 100% increase because that 5mi figure includes many other models. HTC makes different models including HTC one, you know.

 

[Aquila]

Even if HTC had a peak month last year, you are not going to see more than 100% increase from month to month. Even if this was possible, HTC one would need alot more than 100% increase because that 5mi figure includes many other models. HTC makes different models including HTC one, you know.

I'm not saying I buy they sold 5 Million Ones in 1 month, I'm saying they could have sold 5 million phones in 2 months (April and May). The unnamed exec who said 5 million One's so far, presumably wasn't talking about only May sales, but it's hard to tell because there is no source and no concrete statement. I'm showing that 5 million devices sold during the time frame described is plausible, but all of this is only based on revenue numbers and last year sales numbers to compare. It could be wildly different, and they haven't said anything official.

However, looking at the month over month revenue numbers for this year so far, it's easy to believe that peak seasonality is more than 100% of weaker months, such as January (15.5 billion NT) and February (11.4 billion NT) and march (15.8 billion NT) where the May number is approximately 200% of the January and March numbers, is over 200% of the February amount and the Q1 average.

 

[Kevin OQuinn]

Yes. One has inside knowledge of sales. Another is guessing.

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They didn't, actually.

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Refusing to confirm is a very different thing than denying that they're accurate. HTC is being very careful about managing expectations, for the reason Samsung is now experiencing.

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Usual suspects, doing their usual thing.

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S
M
H

I am disappoint. Again.

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[jdoee100]

okay, this is going to be my last post. i got to go to study.
Taipei times(from Taiwan, home of HTC) reported 0.6mi in April and 1.2mi in May of HTC one (total of 1.8mi in 2 months). This wasn't korea times or WSJ. This makes sense because of the revenue reported, and the fact that they had all kinds of trouble making HTC one in April.
5mi figure for HTC one doesn't support HTC reported revenue or the problems they had with just about everything from manufacturing issues to personel issues.
You can try to fit an elephant into a mouse hole, but it's not likely to pass through in my opinion.

 

[Aquila]

Also moving on, we're clearly speaking 5 different languages between 4 people. See ya'll later, next thread please.