Graph: When Will Android's Explosive Growth Slow?

[milominderbinde]

Android Central is reporting that: A half-million Android devices activated every day, Andy Rubin says:

There are now over 500,000 Android devices activated every day, and it's growing at 4.4% w/w
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A year ago, Android Central Reported that there were: 160k Android phones activated per day.

When Will Android's Explosive Growth Slow?

Google only counts new Android devices activated. This is not how many were "shipped". 500,000 a day is a run rate of 182 million a year. The bigger news is that activations are increasing "4.4% w/w". That is, each week there are 4.4% more activations than the previous week. The red dashed line above shows a predicted trend at half the current growth.

How long is that growth sustainable?

Not forever but there are over 1.1 billion phones sold a year. Android only has a 17% marketshare. If Android follows the path Microsoft has with Windows, that would be more like 80% marketshare. Android would need 2 million activations a day to have a Windows-like marketshare.

Bigger picture, the UN says that there are over 5 Billion Cellphones in use. That means that the roughly 130 million Androids in use account for less than 3% of the total cellphone market.

In answer to the question, "When Will Android's Explosive Growth Slow?"

There are still over 5 billion dumbphones to go. By then they will all need upgrades...

Android Central References: 60,000/day, 100,000/day, 160,000/day, 200,000/day, 300,000/day, 400,000/day, 500,000/day

 

[randy pennella]

I hope the growth of android never stops skys the limit.

 

[milominderbinde]

I hope the growth of android never stops skys the limit.

100 million down. 5 billion to go!