Estimated tablet sales Xoom vs iPad

[realitydigg]

The Motorola XOOM is most certainly not a flop | BGR this article breaks down how the original article's numbers are flawed.

Also, everyone is trying to run Motorola marketing. How about they wanted a foothold in the marketplace and had a choice (it always comes down to choices in product development) Get something out sooner that was a little pricey to manufacture and with a new OS or wait. Given that choice I would go out early, not plan on selling huge numbers, keep working on thinner lighter more powerfull, cheaper, and launch that later at the lower price. The plan to keep the price high at launch establishes value, allows you to skim the cream off the top of the market, which can be very profitable if you do it right. Coming in with a cheaper to build model later and riding the price points down (not de-valuing the market initially) works out to huge revenue increase in the the lifecycle of the product.

 

[milominderbinde]

Doing a little more research to see if the 100,000 number could be true. A month ago a zdnet article said:

Xoom sales have been underwhelming. While marketing has just started we believe MMI will likely have to cut production if it already has not done so. We believe the device has been a bit buggy and did not meet the magic price point of $500. We believe management knows this and is hurrying development and production of lower cost tablets. Importantly we believe management will likely have to make the painful decision to accept little to no margin initially in order to match iPad 2’s wholesale pricing.
​

 

[milominderbinde]

For Q1 2011, Motorola reportedly placed orders for about 700,000 to 800,000 units of the Motorola Xoom...according to sources from upstream suppliers cited by DigiTimes.

Here are links:

cnet: Production of first Xoom model to end?

As this shows, Motorola does in fact refute incorrect information.

The misunderstanding may have been that the Digitimes report, Motorola Xoom monthly orders to drop in 2Q11, said that 200,000 Xooms were shipped from China in February and 400,000-500,000 in March with 300,000 more coming in April and May. Digitimes did not say that orders will stop in June.

Motorola did not refute the number of Xooms ordered through June, just that orders will end in June.

As to Deutsche Bank, DB is not a blog. DB manages huge portfolios for investors. Here is what Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Modoff actually said:

"The latest update to the Android developer website showing OS versioning indicates that 0.2% of Android devices run on version 3.0 aka Honeycomb. As far as we know, the Motorola Xoom is the only Honeycomb product on the market. We currently estimate that the Android installed base at around 50 million units, 0.2% of which is equivalent to about 100,000 units..."

Another investment adviser, Pacific Crest says Xoom, Atrix Both Duds after reviewing other channel metrics.

 

[realitydigg]

Here are links:

"The latest update to the Android developer website showing OS versioning indicates that 0.2% of Android devices run on version 3.0 aka Honeycomb. As far as we know, the Motorola Xoom is the only Honeycomb product on the market. We currently estimate that the Android installed base at around 50 million units, 0.2% of which is equivalent to about 100,000 units..."

The android developer site says "Data collected during two weeks ending on April 1, 2011" so this is the number of devices accessing the market in that two week period....

 

[eyecon82]

It looks like Samsung will not make that mistake.

yea....but they WILL make the mistake of making something very plasticky and cheap, forgetting to support their older models when a newer tablet will come out, and adding on that TouchWiz crap to gunk up the honeycomb interface

And guess what? the 32gb wifi only samsung will be $569.99...only a $30 difference

 

[falconeight]

When you get passed the hardware and the fact that you can browse the net and get emails it has nothing else to offer. If I carry around a 10 inch tablet I would like to see a movie every once in awhile. If a $200 netbook can get netflix, itunes, or hulu then a $800 tablet should also.

 

[gregg37]

When you get passed the hardware and the fact that you can browse the net and get emails it has nothing else to offer. If I carry around a 10 inch tablet I would like to see a movie every once in awhile. If a $200 netbook can get netflix, itunes, or hulu then a $800 tablet should also.

And it will most likely get at least 2 of the three. (they can keep itunes) You'll also have Amazon's streaming and movie rental/purchase downloads as well. Don't worry, Netflix and Hulu aren't going to let this market get away from them.

 

[falconeight]

And it will most likely get at least 2 of the three. (they can keep itunes) You'll also have Amazon's streaming and movie rental/purchase downloads as well. Don't worry, Netflix and Hulu aren't going to let this market get away from them.

And Micro sd card slot, and 4g , and this, and that. See thats the problem, when the ipad was released it had plenty of apps and everything on it worked.

 

[milominderbinde]

The android developer site says "Data collected during two weeks ending on April 1, 2011" so this is the number of devices accessing the market in that two week period....

The Android Market app is always running on an Android device unless you use a Task Killer to stop it. A Xoom would not be included if you use a task killer to stop the market app AND did not manually check for updates in these two weeks. That's maybe 1% who are not included in these numbers?

But other financial analysts are using a variety of other metrics to determine the units sold and they all keep hitting the 100,000 number.

700,000 shipped from China so far. 100,000 sold so far. What will Motorola do with the other 600,000 and the 300,000 coming this month and the 300,000 coming next month.

Typically sales surge in the first month and then drop off. The Xoom was the device of the year at CES. Every local news and paper featured it. You can't buy that kind of advertising. How long were the lines opening day? How many stores sold out?

Even if no competitors were coming out, could the Xoom sustain the sales levels from the opening month?

Now comes the Galaxy Tab 10.1 at $499, the Asus Transformer at $399, and the EVO View at $399.

How many $600 or $800 Xoom's will be sold the next 42 days?

How long will it take to sell the next 100,000 Xooms?

At the right price there would have been lines out the door and every store would have sold out.

The Xoom is a great device. Every spec was golden but one.

No amount of great engineering can overcome that much greed.

 

[gregg37]

And Micro sd card slot, and 4g , and this, and that. See thats the problem, when the ipad was released it had plenty of apps and everything on it worked.

You apparently didn't have an ipad early on. And you forget that the ipad was, after all a huge ipod touch so it had a bit of a head start before launch. Honeycomb is pretty much an all new OS and will have a short "growing pains" period. Was it released too early? Probably. Does it do everything the ipad could do one day 1? Absolutely, and more. How's that email attachment, file system and Flash working out for ya? Facebook chat? Yea thought so. But you can play Bejewled, so that's good!

Yea it sucks to wait for the SD slot, but it's only real use will come when we are playing with custom ROMs, otherwise the internal storage is plenty huge enough.

4G? who gives a crap - if you're buying a 3G/4G tablet at all, you probably shouldn't be using Android anything - go back to your remedial iphone. But since you brought it up, how's the ipad/iphone 4G working for ya?

 

[Beezzy]

I will give it to Apple. The iPad is a beautiful device. I was comparing the two before I bought it. But iOS was too simple and too much like an iPod. But thats what mass consumers want with a product. It will take time for the android tablet game to pick up. When I saw the G1 when it first came out, I laughed it off and the few people that bought it told me how amazing Android is, now 2 years later, I own 2 Android phones and a Xoom. Droid-Life just posted a story on how Android will be 50% of all Smartphones in 2012. So it will take time. Thats just my 2 cents.

 

[karepem]

very good information, thanks
Android News

 

[realitydigg]

The Android Market app is always running on an Android device unless you use a Task Killer to stop it. A Xoom would not be included if you use a task killer to stop the market app AND did not manually check for updates in these two weeks. That's maybe 1% who are not included in these numbers?

My point was just that it wasn't two months of sales. IMHO it counts the verizon units and initial days of WiFi, but not enough to set the pattern for WiFi. And this is US only i think since worldwide release hasn't happened. Not saying itis a blockbuster, just pointing out that the analysis and the conclusions don't - for me - add up. If this was my analyst and I was reviewing his/her research I would send them back to refine it.

 

[milominderbinde]

...Not saying itis a blockbuster, just pointing out that the analysis and the conclusions don't - for me - add up...

I don't work for Motorola and I don't know the inside info. I do know this.

Go to any Best Buy and ask the manager how the Xoom is selling? How many cartons do they have in stock? How well are they selling? If you know them well enough ask to look at their screens that show units in stock at area stores.

Try to find any Verizon or Best Buy store who sold out first day or is really selling the Xoom at all. That's the reality. Ask them what it is like trying to find an iPad 2.

Motorola will have to set their prices to what the market will bear. Watch the Xoom price changes around their earnings conference call April 27, 2011.

Motorola Mobility (MMI) peaked at $37 at the January Earnings announcement featuring the Xoom, Atrix, Bionic, and Cliq 2. MMI has gone down ever since as reports have emerged until it is now about $24. MMI has to file their 8-K disclosure by the 27th.

Watch what happens on the 27th.