Nexus 7 will lead Android tablets to overtake the iPad

[crackberrytraitor]

I forgot to include in my previous post that the iHerds are also the thinnest-skinned, easily butthurt emo crybabies, but the hysterical overreactions sorta made the point for me.

Even allowing for the undying blind loyalty of the iHerds, it's going to be a futile effort to challenge the iPad unless the app picture improves. As I said before the hysterical iHerds took over the thread, the N7 is inferior to the Fire at the moment and I'm not particularly sanguine about things improving soon.

The N7 is the best slab of hardware running the latest OS, but without enough WORKING apps, it's nothing.

Well I agree in your case that the fire may be better, for most it's not. The browser is slower, the device is laggier, it runs far less apps than the N7 and the screen is significantly worse. Not everyone relies on Amazon for content. If you do, you will probably prefer the fire. I have not run into a single app that I use that doesn't run on my N7, not to say that many people don't have a problem with their apps working. Using my old fire (I got one as a gift) is like torture compared to my N7. Also, I'd add that the N7 hasn't even been out a month yet and already the amount of apps being made compatible with it is staggering. Probably faster and more widespread app support than I've seen for any Android device.

 

[Ry]

You need to think about this a little bit. What happened shortly after Microsoft took over the computer market? It became harder and harder to find programs that run on Apple, finally arriving at the point where we are at now where over 99% percent of computer programs do not run on Macs. The reason being, that there was more money in PCs, due to a larger audience. Devs go where the money is at. If Google totally dominates the market, most apps will start being only on Android, which will be the end of iOS.

When do you think we'll be at the point where app developers will make the switch from iOS to Android because that's where the money is at? Android already has the market share but I don't see a turning point with regards to revenues for app developers coming anytime soon.

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[crackberrytraitor]

When do you think we'll be at the point where app developers will make the switch from iOS to Android because that's where the money is at? Android already has the market share but I don't see a turning point with regards to revenues for app developers coming anytime soon.

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It hasn't even been a year since android became the top dog. Blackberry didn't become devoid of devs overnight. Google continues to take more market share at an increasing pace. When there are 3 or 4 times as many Android phones being sold (mid 2013 at current trends) it will be far less profitable to develop apps for iOS.

And it's already starting to happen. Here's a report from last week.

http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Mobile-and-Wireless/iOS-Android-Developer-Gap-Is-Shrinking-Report-365152/

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[Ry]

I hope this measured "interest" actually leads to developers making money on Android. I'm in game and application development for mobile platforms and a lot of people developing for all platforms just aren't seeing a good return on investment on Android apps in direct comparison to their return on investment on iOS. It's not getting significantly better for anyone I know either.

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[crackberrytraitor]

I hope this measured "interest" actually leads to developers making money on Android. I'm in game and application development for mobile platforms and a lot of people developing for all platforms just aren't seeing a good return on investment on Android apps in direct comparison to their return on investment on iOS. It's not getting significantly better for anyone I know either.

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Really, because I talk to a lot of Devs on XDA who jumped ship from iOS and say just the opposite because Google takes a smaller cut. I'm currently making an awesome (to toot my own horn) game for Android in GML, as I want to get a larger profit margin, and I find working with this platform more interesting. I'm not worried about piracy, I'm including a good phone home option and anyone who goes to the trouble of foiling that is a legit pirate and deserves the free app for their effort. I'm down with legit pirates, just not average consumers googling the apk and sideloading it.

BTW, I'll be offering my game free on AC for a week before putting it on play, to get some good testing, I'm excited. It's called Super Drug Boy. It uses drawn art for all the backdrops and sprites, It's looking pretty nice so far. You use different drugs (including lots of cool new research chems) to get different powers to get through levels and change how the game looks. Certain combinations of drugs do even crazier things. I've used 47 different drugs myself so I'm trying to make the drugs effect filters and powers as realistic as possible.There's also a depression meter, and overdose meter. If you go too long without taking more drugs, your depression meter will max out and you kill yourself. If you take past a certain amount of drugs you will max out the overdose meter and die. Certain drug combinations can also cause the overdose meter to go up much faster. There's a lot more cool stuff too, I've put a lot of work into the storyline, so keep an eye out for a free copy.

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[Ry]

Really, because I talk to a lot of Devs on XDA who jumped ship from iOS and say just the opposite because Google takes a smaller cut. I'm currently making an awesome (to toot my own horn) game for Android in GML, as I want to get a larger profit margin, and I find working with this platform more interesting. I'm not worried about piracy, I'm including a good phone home option and anyone who goes to the trouble of foiling that is a legit pirate and deserves the free app for their effort. I'm down with legit pirates, just not average consumers googling the apk and sideloading it.

BTW, I'll be offering my game free on AC for a week before putting it on play, to get some good testing, I'm excited. It's called Super Drug Boy. It uses drawn art for all the backdrops and sprites, It's looking pretty nice so far. You use different drugs (including lots of cool new research chems) to get different powers to get through levels and change how the game looks. Certain combinations of drugs do even crazier things. I've used 47 different drugs myself so I'm trying to make the drugs effect filters and powers as realistic as possible.There's also a depression meter, and overdose meter. If you go too long without taking more drugs, your depression meter will max out and you kill yourself. If you take past a certain amount of drugs you will max out the overdose meter and die. Certain drug combinations can also cause the overdose meter to go up much faster. There's a lot more cool stuff too, I've put a lot of work onto the storyline, so keep an eye out for a free copy.

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Really? I thought the cut is the same- 70/30. http://support.google.com/googlepla.../answer.py?hl=en&answer=138294#/answer/112622

An extreme case: a developer I know recently had this one week breakdown for revenues- iOS was 90% of that week's revenue, Play Store was 3% of that week's revenue, and Amazon Android App Store was 7% of that week's revenue.

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[crackberrytraitor]

Really? I thought the cut is the same- 70/30. http://support.google.com/googlepla.../answer.py?hl=en&answer=138294#/answer/112622

An extreme case: a developer I know recently had this one week breakdown for revenues- iOS was 90% of that week's revenue, Play Store was 3% of that week's revenue, and Amazon Android App Store was 7% of that week's revenue.

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Yes, but google doesn't take a split of profit for items sold in game. And that revenue split your Dev friend gave you is not typical, as you say. If you look at many games sold on Android, you can see pretty much identical sales numbers to those sold on the appstore.

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[1812dave]

It might. This is obviously Google's intent in subsidizing the hardware so they are selling it barely above cost.

The big thing is going to be Apple's reaction to this. Apple is doing a few things right (introducing a smaller iPad which should be able to come close to competing to the Nexus 7) and a few things wrong (alienating their entire installed base of devices by changing the "standard Apple connector" to an incompatible connector that is also not an industry standard like USB Micro).

Apple took the early risks in coming forward with the implementation (if not the concept) of the fondleslabs we all enjoy, both in small form and large. As a result, they enjoyed a starting lead out of the gate. They also have a few market advantages like a monolithic model lineup (basically boiling down to "how much memory do you want?"), and more consistent support for software upgrades (since all devices are from a single vendor).

Apple's biggest problem is that they must remain "all things to all people" in order to maintain a leadership position, and they are competing against multiple players who are also each competing against the other. ONE killer device like the Nexus 7 could knock them cleanly off the podium.

Their second-biggest problem is the timing of their hardware shift to the new connector port. Many thousands of people spent good money buying devices that accept Apple devices specifically because the form-factor across all Apple devices is similar enough that a simple shim (at worst) could make a clock radio take both an iPod Gen 2 and an iPhone 4S. You'll see a certain percentage of the population say "hell, if I have to plug in an adapter and have a cable and leave my device lying next to the clock radio, why not buy this Android tablet for $100 less and use USB?

But they've still got an established base of iTunes users with their music and media locked (*) into that infrastructure, so the battle is going to really be interesting over the next 12-18 months. This Christmas is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Apple will probably have the iPhone 5 and the iPad Mini, but Google just shook the foundations of the Android fondleslab market and I do not expect Amazon to sit back and watch their Kindle Fire get upstaged due to the potential massive loss of media sales. I fully expect a $200 16GB decent-spec Fire from Amazon in the very near future, and Samsung isn't going to take this sitting down either.


(*) I realize that you can extract Apple's FLAC files into MP3s, but last I knew this was, like the Google Play Store, a song-by-song manual process - not something most people would approach casually if it was "only" going to save them a little money.


The Nexus 7 does have one bad thing - reports of poor gluing of the screen - this could prompt a bit of a backlash if too many bad units end up out in the field.

Apple's iPod Mini will sell, but the question is how much loss are they willing to take this Christmas to keep the iPod on top of the podium? Because they're going to be late to the game in the 7-to-8 inch space, and their product is probably going to cost a good chunk more. The 7-inch tablet is not going to be seen as a long-term investment like the 10-incher by then, since there will probably be at least a half dozen viable feature-rich $200 7-inchers and more than a few $100 adequate e-readers (say something with a TFT screen, a 1GHz single-core processor, 16GB RAM, front-facing camera, SD port, and decent 6-to-8-hour battery).

If Apple walks in with a $300-350 competitor four months after everyone has gotten used to the devices costing $200 or even less, they'll still have a die-hard fan base who will sell out the initial build run in a few days.

But they'll have lost that first-to-market edge that they've enjoyed for quite some time now.

Gonna be a fun year no matter what, and a good year for us consumers because the big players are finally competing in the tablet space.

It won't be a fun year for consumers if apple decides to charge a premium (as always) for a 7" tablet and then the Android models to follow the N7 creep up in price--undercutting Apple, but not being super-affordable as the N7. I NEVER trust Apple to not maximize their profits to the hilt. Do YOU expect them to sell a tablet for near cost?????

 

[giograves]

There is a huge branding element everyone is completely ignoring and unfortunately it is very likely Apple will not only regain dominance, but render most other alternatives niche when the dust settles in a few years. What our kids grow up using is a critical factor here.

The fact that everyone knows what an "I" device is cannot be understated.

My 6 y/o calls my N7 an iPad, can I blame her? Wth is a Nexus? Google makes a phone? Really? When was the last time you heard a flight attendant announce turn off your androids instead or your iPods or iPads before takeoff? I bet quite a few of you here are in some of those public school districts (taxes $$$) where students get an iPad as if it were a textbook!

So lets take our heads out the sand and identity the market elements that allowed Android to grow exponentially (such as affordable phones in third world markets, BB's failure to recognize and adapt and carrier exclusivity agreements) not customization an enthusiast's driver.

The market tomorrow will be shaped by usage today by the "impressionables" demographic.


-Sent from my Jelly Bean Nexus 7

 

[mkiker2089]

There is a huge branding element everyone is completely ignoring and unfortunately it is very likely Apple will not only regain dominance, but render most other alternatives niche when the dust settles in a few years. What our kids grow up using is a critical factor here.

We grew up with Macs in school yet still choose 94 out 100 times a PC. Hoover is the name defacto of vacuumes yet their market saturation is minimal. Kleenex is the name defacto of facial tissues, well Kleenex does very well but they aren't the king.

 

[crackberrytraitor]

There is a huge branding element everyone is completely ignoring and unfortunately it is very likely Apple will not only regain dominance, but render most other alternatives niche when the dust settles in a few years. What our kids grow up using is a critical factor here.

The fact that everyone knows what an "I" device is cannot be understated.

My 6 y/o calls my N7 an iPad, can I blame her? Wth is a Nexus? Google makes a phone? Really? When was the last time you heard a flight attendant announce turn off your androids instead or your iPods or iPads before takeoff? I bet quite a few of you here are in some of those public school districts (taxes $$$) where students get an iPad as if it were a textbook!

So lets take our heads out the sand and identity the market elements that allowed Android to grow exponentially (such as affordable phones in third world markets, BB's failure to recognize and adapt and carrier exclusivity agreements) not customization an enthusiast's driver.

The market tomorrow will be shaped by usage today by the "impressionables" demographic.


-Sent from my Jelly Bean Nexus 7

Lol, take at look at the undeniable market trend and you will see that you are wrong. And carrier exclusivity hindered iPhone growth, it didn't help it. It certainly wasn't carrier issues that ruined Blackberry.

With your hypothesis, Macs should be the dominant computers today. Back when macs were dominant the only computer a kid could name was Apple. And guess what? They lost and became a niche. I remember all the Mac fans saying that Apple would win the war eventually and they were just as wrong wrong as you were. I also remember all the iPhone fans a year or 2 ago saying that Android would never catch on, or be as popular as iOS. They were wrong too. At the rate they're going, Google will have 3 quarters of the smartphone market share sometime in 2013. If, as you say, the market tomorrow will be shaped by usage today, then Google is going to utterly dominate. I think you need to take YOUR head out of the sand.

BTW, I fly all the time, and I've never heard an attendant mention an Apple product. It's always "please turn off cell phones and electronic devices"

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[mkiker2089]

Yes, but good doesn't take a split of profit for items sold in game. And that slit your Dev friend gave you is not typical, as you say. If you look at games many games sold on Android, you can see pretty much identical sales numbers to those sold on the appstore.

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Actually it's pretty spot on to make more from Apple. Not 90 percent more, but more. You have three factors that are slowly changing

1- Apple users are used to being shafted so they see paying for an app as normal.
2- more Android users are scum sucking pirate bastards than Apple users. There are even posts in this forum advocating piracy
3- Android users are used to free apps yet install ad blocking to prevent all revenue.

 

[giograves]

With your hypothesis, Macs should be the dominant computers today. Back when macs were dominant the only computer a kid could name was Apple. And guess what? They lost and became a niche.

BTW, I fly all the time, and I've never heard an attendant mention an Apple product. It's always "please turn off cell phones and electronic devices"

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We grew up with Macs in school yet still choose 94 out 100 times a PC.

Lol @ analogy of pre-internet era MAC usage and world iconic "i" device parallels. Completely different ballgame in a completely different era with a completely different business model.

Oh not to mention an accesory catalog that pretty much works to frustrate handfuls of Android people to go to iOS anyway. The "ipod" ready treadmills, cars, radios, yeah lets completley ignore these branding elements as well....:-X

Also rather shocking you've never heard an "i" device specifically mention on an airline, or maybe its just a Jetblue thing.

 

[crackberrytraitor]

Lol @ analogy of pre-internet era MAC usage and world iconic "i" device parallels. Completely different ballgame in a completely different era with a completely different business model.

Oh not to mention an accesory catalog that pretty much works to frustrate handfuls of Android people to go to iOS anyway. The "ipod" ready treadmills, cars, radios, yeah lets completley ignore these branding elements as well....:-X

Also rather shocking you've never heard an "i" device specifically mention on an airline, or maybe its just a Jetblue thing.

Macs weren't pre-internet. And it was the same deal as "I" devices are today. They were the computer of choice in schools, and every kid wanted one for Christmas. They made computers cool. Putting the letter i before the name of the device doesn't make the marketing model apple uses any different. And you know what? iphones had the same iconic nature they do now before Android came out. It was the ultimate cool thing to have. Android still overtook it. Android is still selling more devices now. I see just as many kids with Android phones as I do with iphones. I haven't heard you give any reason why the current trend is going to change. I don't see Apple becoming any more "hip" than it is now, where it is currently losing more and more market share.

Android is the "PC" of mobile phones. Un-hip old Windows still firmly holds like 93+% of the computer market.
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[crackberrytraitor]

Actually it's pretty spot on to make more from Apple. Not 90 percent more, but more. You have three factors that are slowly changing

1- Apple users are used to being shafted so they see paying for an app as normal.
2- more Android users are scum sucking pirate bastards than Apple users. There are even posts in this forum advocating piracy
3- Android users are used to free apps yet install ad blocking to prevent all revenue.

You have to be rooted to block most ads. Most users aren't rooted. More Apple users are jail broken than android users are rooted. Many estimates are that as many as 25 percent of I phones are jail broken. The main purpose of jail braking is to steal apps. I know several iPhone users who steal apps. Unless you have data to back up that more android users pirate stuff than apple users, I think that's no more than conjecture. If you compare sales on all the big games , the sales numbers are nearly identical on both platforms.

My model business model is to appeal to the biggest market share, which is android.

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[NickA]

My model business model is to appeal to the biggest market share, which is android.

I thought that as well, but the apps I create for myself to sell do better on the App Store. When my clients request apps however, 70% request Android, and the rest iOS. Mainly because when I develope corporate apps, I push for Android because I don't have to deal with the Apple App Store at all.

Looking forward to seeing your game btw.

 

[armeddroid]

.



Pff, that's just utterly ridiculous. More like vs, iOS, iOS2, iOS3, iOS4, iOS5 and the numerous incremental updates in between. iOS5 didn't just poof into existence and it's not what they used to gain their marketshare. You could argue that no device with anything before iOS4 are still being sold. Well, no devices with anything before Gingerbread are still being sold either.

Ridiculous? My point was iOS 4 or 5 whatever is running on all iPhones currently is the only OS. OK, GB is the majority but you have ICS and JB which is hardly running on any devices. You saying its OS vs OS. So.. android has got itself all over the place. And each of those OS have different features. Regardless on what device. Its fragmented and could prove to be the downfall of Android. What's ridiculous is that your saying is Apple's OS didn't gain them their market share. It did. The advertising and marketing hypes the OS and features. Most of the money apple makes is from the iphone and the ipad which runs the OS.
You brought BB and their multitude of devices?
Smh lol ok I'm out.

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[crackberrytraitor]

Ridiculous? My point was iOS 4 or 5 whatever is running on all iPhones currently is the only OS. OK, GB is the majority but you have ICS and JB which is hardly running on any devices. You saying its OS vs OS. So.. android has got itself all over the place. And each of those OS have different features. Regardless on what device. Its fragmented and could prove to be the downfall of Android. What's ridiculous is that your saying in Apple's OS didn't gain them their market share. It did. The advertising and marketing hypes the OS. Most of the money apple makes is from the iphone and the ipad which runs the OS. Not the device. Smh.

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You misunderstand what I said on several levels. I said it wasn't iOS 5 that got them all their market share, it was iOS 1-4 that were on devices when the iPhone was at it's peak domination of the market, and got them where they're at now. Secondly there are two versions of iOS being used right now. The iPhone 3gs (still being sold) doesn't use the latest iOS.

Right now all flagship android devices come with Android 4 or above, whereas the cheaper ones come with gingerbread. That's 2 OS. All iphone 4s being sold have iOS 5, and the cheaper iPhone 3gs being sold have an older iOS version. It's 2 versions for each.

The reason there is more overall fragmentation is that more people still have their old pre gingerbread android phones than people who have the oldest Iphones. Half the iphones ever sold can't even run iOS 4, but they're either in a dump or collecting dust in a drawer someplace.


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[Ry]

You misunderstand what I said on several levels. I said it wasn't iOS 5 that got them all their market share, it was iOS 1-4 that were on devices when the iPhone was at it's peak domination of the market, and got them where they're at now. Secondly there are two versions of iOS being used right now. The iPhone 3gs (still being sold) doesn't use the latest iOS.

Right now all flagship android devices come with Android 4 or above, whereas the cheaper ones come with gingerbread. That's 2 OS. All iphone 4s being sold have iOS 5, and the cheaper iPhone 3gs being sold have an older iOS version. It's 2 versions for each.

The reason there is more overall fragmentation is that more people still have their old pre gingerbread android phones than people who have the oldest Iphones. Half the iphones ever sold can't even run iOS 4, but they're either in a dump or collecting dust in a drawer someplace.


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..actually the 3GS does run iOS 5. The 3G is finished at 4.2.1.

Apple does sometimes strip features when older devices get the new OS, but the base is the same and apps should be compatible.

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[crackberrytraitor]

..actually the 3GS does run iOS 5. The 3G is finished at 4.2.1.

Apple does sometimes strip features when older devices get the new OS, but the base is the same and apps should be compatible.

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I've heard there are plenty of apps that's don't work on the older I phones. Pretty sure only the iPhone 4/4s variants will be getting os6. That's not to say android doesn't have any fragmentation. Anyway, windows has plenty of apps that aren't backwards compatible, it hasn't hurt their market share.

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