That's a poor way to look at this. You gotta look at the current value of it, not the past value.none. no need for insurance. I have only broken/lost one phone in the last 20 years. if I paid $10 a month for the last 20 years I would have paid out $2400!
Get the $4/month protection and the one-year cost comes to $48. (one year since with an Epic, you're a premiere customer, which means new phone every year). If I break my phone, then with the $100 deductible, that comes to $148.
So now you gotta look at the probability of a stolen/broken/lost phone happening in that year and compare that to the cost of buying a new phone if that happens.
But the real value of this to someone is knowing that for only $4/month, they'll never have to pay more than $100 if they screw up. And if you can't afford $4/month, you probably shouldn't have an $80/month plan. But if you never break phones, maybe you'd rather have that one-extra-beer-at-a-bar.
In my situation: hell yeah I'm gonna do this. I'm switching to Sprint, which means that if I break this phone, I'll have to buy another phone at full cost (since I don't have a backup).
In my situation, next year: I'll do it for 6 months. Once I get a new phone next year, if I break it then I can switch back to my Epic for the remaining 6 months until my next upgrade.